Red Mosquito

E.H. Ruddock wrote:again, how will I get rich in this system?

Are check-cashing places illegal in your state?

i too turn to sam harris when only the most simpering and ahistorical middlebrow inquest will sate my paplust

It's hard to reference history when finding the right path forward in a world with NO TRUCK DRIVERS. What are these idiots going to do for an income? This technological advancement is not the same as before.

tree_ wrote:It's hard to reference history when finding the right path forward in a world with NO TRUCK DRIVERS. What are these idiots going to do for an income? This technological advancement is not the same as before.

The agricultural and industrial revolutions beg to differ. The AI revolution, though different in nature, will unequivocally improve productivity and provide for all of us - yes, including displaced truck drivers - lives of markedly higher quality. The Model-T ruined life for carriage drivers, and the ATM ruined life for bank tellers. Somehow, we survived.

It is not wise to put a premium on the economic opinions of philosophers and lawyers-turned-aspiring-politicians.

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tree_ wrote:It's hard to reference history when finding the right path forward in a world with NO TRUCK DRIVERS. What are these idiots going to do for an income? This technological advancement is not the same as before.

The agricultural and industrial revolutions beg to differ. The AI revolution, though different in nature, will unequivocally improve productivity and provide for all of us - yes, including displaced truck drivers - lives of markedly higher quality. The Model-T ruined life for carriage drivers, and the ATM ruined life for bank tellers. Somehow, we survived.

It is not wise to put a premium on the economic opinions of philosophers and lawyers-turned-aspiring-politicians.

The number and quality of jobs lost will be substantially greater than ever in history. I agree it's a good thing, as long as we have means of survival and our focus on time spent ethically is appropriate.

I don't think Sam Harris and the politician have all the answers here, but something like this makes sense, and much more sense than the current system.

tree_ wrote:I don't think Sam Harris and the politician have all the answers here, but something like this makes sense, and much more sense than the current system.

It does not, precisely because the rationale that motivates the various flavors of the UBI - THE END OF WORK IS NEAR - holds no water. There will be more work to be had in a world with AI ubiquity, not less.

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tree_ wrote:I don't think Sam Harris and the politician have all the answers here, but something like this makes sense, and much more sense than the current system.

It does not, precisely because the rationale that motivates the various flavors of the UBI - THE END OF WORK IS NEAR - holds no water. There will be more work to be had in a world with AI ubiquity, not less.

There will be no need for jobs. The singularity is nigh.

Let's use coal as an example since it's in the news. Do you think it's going to be easy to retrain all those people once this "clean coal" thing finally dies out? Most of the jobs won't even be in the same state so they'll have to move if they want to keep working. It's not tenable in the current system and I haven't heard too many ideas (even this UBI) that makes sense for everyone. I'm sure there is an idea out there to be had but the political climate right now means no one is working together and there won't be a good idea for a good long while.

But I'm a pessimist at the best of times so what do I know.

bune wrote:Let's use coal as an example since it's in the news. Do you think it's going to be easy to retrain all those people once this "clean coal" thing finally dies out? Most of the jobs won't even be in the same state so they'll have to move if they want to keep working. It's not tenable in the current system and I haven't heard too many ideas (even this UBI) that makes sense for everyone. I'm sure there is an idea out there to be had but the political climate right now means no one is working together and there won't be a good idea for a good long while.

But I'm a pessimist at the best of times so what do I know.

They actually discuss this in the podcast. UBI does help in these scenarios. More than $1,000 would be necessary, but you have to start somewhere.

tree_ wrote:

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tree_ wrote:It's hard to reference history when finding the right path forward in a world with NO TRUCK DRIVERS. What are these idiots going to do for an income? This technological advancement is not the same as before.

The agricultural and industrial revolutions beg to differ. The AI revolution, though different in nature, will unequivocally improve productivity and provide for all of us - yes, including displaced truck drivers - lives of markedly higher quality. The Model-T ruined life for carriage drivers, and the ATM ruined life for bank tellers. Somehow, we survived.

It is not wise to put a premium on the economic opinions of philosophers and lawyers-turned-aspiring-politicians.

The number and quality of jobs lost will be substantially greater than ever in history. I agree it's a good thing, as long as we have means of survival and our focus on time spent ethically is appropriate.

Yeah, the industrial revolution is a terrible precedence to look to when contemplating AI. The IR was a shift in the type of work that was available and the volume of jobs that required cultivating an expertise. AI is what happens when the loom can build, run, and manage itself.

BurtReynolds wrote:He seems light on details. And he can pretend it's not socialism all he wants. It definitely is, especially his social currency idea. You have to address those problems. "Hey we'll just raise taxes! Easy fix!"

The thousand dollar figure doesn't make sense. It will still incentivize work because it won't pay for necessities? But there isn't any work. That's the point. So you're just paying people to starve more slowly. Many of these people can't find meaningful work, period.

So, big surprise, it will cost a lot more than he is willing to admit. And what happens when someone blows their money on something stupid (or just something they need) instead of healthcare/food stamps that they had previously? Guess we'll need more entitlements for that. Meanwhile whatever economy is left grinds to a halt.

This isn't going to work. We're all going to die.

Take the black pill.

This is not socialism because people still have the opportunity to financially thrive, among other obvious reasons. I agree the $1,000 figure isn't a long-term solution, but you have to start somewhere. This is for a transitional period, during which there are still jobs to be sought. The social currency idea is more in thinking about what people should do with their time when they have no jobs, in the distant future. Spit the black pill out, Burt, there's hope.

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tree_ wrote:I don't think Sam Harris and the politician have all the answers here, but something like this makes sense, and much more sense than the current system.

It does not, precisely because the rationale that motivates the various flavors of the UBI - THE END OF WORK IS NEAR - holds no water. There will be more work to be had in a world with AI ubiquity, not less.

This is probably wrong.

I can think of 250+ people who will be out of a job the minute AI can start doing the type of claims processing that they do. They've already started to pilot fully automated claims so it's just a matter of time before it's ironed out. It's just an algorithm of comparing what the claimant submitted vs. what the regs say is actionable and then applying a percentage for benefits. The regs are clear cut so it's the easiest thing to implement, and will probably result in better claims processing because you take out the human part of unconscious bias.

Sure there will be jobs for the people to 'check' the work and make sure that bugs don't go crazy but that's going to be a fraction of the people there now. And this is just in Portland. Once something like this goes online you'll be able to consolidate offices and instead of having an office in every state there will be one or two offices for a region.

The call centers are already centralized with four for the entire country so those jobs aren't going away since they technically already did. Maybe they could have smaller public contact offices in several places across the state, kind of like the DMV, but I kind of doubt it.

Yeah, bune, it's just a matter of time. Not just office clerks, cashiers, and truck drivers, but doctors, surgeons and the like. Every job, aside from some creative and human care endeavors.

Eliminating the need for labor should be the most beautiful step in human evolution. A society should then be free to focus on things that offer meaning and pleasure and joy. But based on the fucked up power imbalance we’ve created, it probably just means much worse wealth inequality than we already have, and a far worse quality of life for everyone who isn’t among the mega-rich.

LoathedVermin72 wrote:Eliminating the need for labor should be the most beautiful step in human evolution. A society should then be free to focus on things that offer meaning and pleasure and joy. But based on the fucked up power imbalance we’ve created, it probably just means much worse wealth inequality than we already have, and a far worse quality of life for everyone who isn’t among the mega-rich.

I agree, dude. I can only dream of the day. But yeah, that's the fear. So, what's the solution? I think UBI makes a lot of sense if it's executed properly. A funny thing Yang mentioned in the podcast is that one thing the government actually does very well is pay people. I know this from experience. My wife got her unemployment checks on time every time.

He thinks of it as a dividend as opposed to a government program. We are the shareholders of the company of America.

It should cost about 2 trillion dollars of our economy's 19 trillion, which would come from:

1. 500 billion from various income support, such as food stamps, welfare, SS disability. They overlap. You choose either/or.
2. Value Added Tax on large tech companies will generate 7-800 billion if implemented at 10%, half the European level.
3. Health care, incarceration, and homelessness will go down, saving hundreds of billions.

Also, I think he intends on UBI being fixed at 10% of the economy, so when the economy grows, so does our UBI.

tree_ wrote:He thinks of it as a dividend as opposed to a government program. We are the shareholders of the company of America.

It should cost about 2 trillion dollars of our economy's 19 trillion, which would come from:

1. 500 billion from various income support, such as food stamps, welfare, SS disability. They overlap. You choose either/or.
2. Value Added Tax on large tech companies will generate 7-800 billion if implemented at 10%, half the European level.
3. Health care, incarceration, and homelessness will go down, saving hundreds of billions.

Also, I think he intends on UBI being fixed at 10% of the economy, so when the economy grows, so does our UBI.

I don’t believe this. The market will adjust to capture the wealth transfer as it has always done.