Official Prediction Thread

[---]

chud will not drive into a house in 2019

[4/5]

Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

GOP sues.

Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court.

Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump.

Now THAT is a prediction! That's how it's done, folks.

[Green Habit]

There will be a government shutdown of 14+ days at some point during the 2019-20 session of Congress.

Rank and file Dems are going to get irritated if there's a shutdown this long. Republicans generally don't care if government operations get jammed up, but Democrats do. I think Pelosi's going to have a difficult time getting her caucus to hold firm on that.

What do you think would trigger such a gov't shutdown?

[Green Habit]

Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

GOP sues.

Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court.

Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump.

I don't see any way the Compact gets put into effect before 2020. Dems don't control enough state legislatures and foolishly didn't get it put on enough ballot initiatives.

I do agree that this SCOTUS could very well strike it down as unconstitutional if it got to that point, though.

[4/5]

There will be a government shutdown of 14+ days at some point during the 2019-20 session of Congress.

Rank and file Dems are going to get irritated if there's a shutdown this long. Republicans generally don't care if government operations get jammed up, but Democrats do. I think Pelosi's going to have a difficult time getting her caucus to hold firm on that.

What do you think would trigger such a gov't shutdown?

Yeah, that's true. I immediately want to take it back. I had my impeachment prediction typed up, and thought "what else could happen in the House?" Didn't really give it the proper thought that this sacred exercise deserves.

New prediction: GH will be right about me being wrong about a government shutdown.

[run2death]

Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

GOP sues.

Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court.

Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump.

I don't see any way the Compact gets put into effect before 2020. Dems don't control enough state legislatures and foolishly didn't get it put on enough ballot initiatives.

I do agree that this SCOTUS could very well strike it down as unconstitutional if it got to that point, though.

It's just another wildly inaccurate election prediction!

Spoiler: show

[4/5]

Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

GOP sues.

Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court.

Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump.

I don't see any way the Compact gets put into effect before 2020. Dems don't control enough state legislatures and foolishly didn't get it put on enough ballot initiatives.

I do agree that this SCOTUS could very well strike it down as unconstitutional if it got to that point, though.

It's that just another wildly inaccurate election prediction!

Spoiler: show

I do resent him for his apparently complete and total lack of care about his appearance.

[Green Habit]

I do resent him for his apparently complete and total lack of care about his appearance.

That just makes me like him more.

[Green Habit]

I'm too wimpy to actually put down "X will happen" predictions on most things. I'm much more inclined to instead set odds, like "X is more likely than not to happen", even if I think the "not" has decent odds to happen.

But here's one I have high confidence in, even if it's not 100% confidence:

--The Supreme Court declares partisan gerrymandering to be a nonjusticiable political question, with no exceptions.

What this means is that the practice will continue unabated for years to come, and the courts won't be allowed to do anything about it.

[---]

Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

GOP sues.

Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court.

Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump.

I don't see any way the Compact gets put into effect before 2020. Dems don't control enough state legislatures and foolishly didn't get it put on enough ballot initiatives.

I do agree that this SCOTUS could very well strike it down as unconstitutional if it got to that point, though.

It's that just another wildly inaccurate election prediction!

Spoiler: show

I do resent him for his apparently complete and total lack of care about his appearance.

His clothes fit better than Ted Cruz's.

[run2death]

chud will not drive into a house in 2019

What a meaningful contribution to this thread.

[---]

chud will not drive into a house in 2019

What a meaningful contribution to this thread.

i exhausted my real talk quota in the midterm thread

[4/5]

I'm too wimpy to actually put down "X will happen" predictions on most things. I'm much more inclined to instead set odds, like "X is more likely than not to happen", even if I think the "not" has decent odds to happen.

But here's one I have high confidence in, even if it's not 100% confidence:

--The Supreme Court declares partisan gerrymandering to be a nonjusticiable political question, with no exceptions.

What this means is that the practice will continue unabated for years to come, and the courts won't be allowed to do anything about it.

I'm a fan of nuance, so I won't object.

Regarding your prediction, why didn't the Court do that when they were just given the chance to do just that last term? If my memory serves me, they ruled that the appellants lacked standing to bring the case forward, is that right?

[Green Habit]

I'm too wimpy to actually put down "X will happen" predictions on most things. I'm much more inclined to instead set odds, like "X is more likely than not to happen", even if I think the "not" has decent odds to happen.

But here's one I have high confidence in, even if it's not 100% confidence:

--The Supreme Court declares partisan gerrymandering to be a nonjusticiable political question, with no exceptions.

What this means is that the practice will continue unabated for years to come, and the courts won't be allowed to do anything about it.

I'm a fan of nuance, so I won't object.

Regarding your prediction, why didn't the Court do that when they were just given the chance to do just that last term? If my memory serves me, they ruled that the appellants lacked standing to bring the case forward, is that right?

Because Kennedy wasn't willing to say that there's never a case in which it could be justiciable. He did the same thing in 2004, and that was one of the instances where O'Connor was decidedly to his right. Now that he's out and Kavanaugh's in, I think SCOTUS has five votes to do it now. I also think this is something the GOP will highly prioritize the next time their redistricting gets a court challenge.

[4/5]

I'm too wimpy to actually put down "X will happen" predictions on most things. I'm much more inclined to instead set odds, like "X is more likely than not to happen", even if I think the "not" has decent odds to happen.

But here's one I have high confidence in, even if it's not 100% confidence:

--The Supreme Court declares partisan gerrymandering to be a nonjusticiable political question, with no exceptions.

What this means is that the practice will continue unabated for years to come, and the courts won't be allowed to do anything about it.

I'm a fan of nuance, so I won't object.

Regarding your prediction, why didn't the Court do that when they were just given the chance to do just that last term? If my memory serves me, they ruled that the appellants lacked standing to bring the case forward, is that right?

Because Kennedy wasn't willing to say that there's never a case in which it could be justiciable. He did the same thing in 2004, and that was one of the instances where O'Connor was decidedly to his right. Now that he's out and Kavanaugh's in, I think SCOTUS has five votes to do it now. I also think this is something the GOP will highly prioritize the next time their redistricting gets a court challenge.

True. I really thought the whole wasted votes/surplus votes formula thing would have sufficiently appealed to Kennedy. At the very least, it seemed to be presented with him specifically in mind.

[doug rr]

civil war

Gonna need a time and date on that, sir.

soon

[Green Habit]

Someone could have already made a killing in this thread by firing Sessions. That one now seemed like a no brainer.

Anyone dare to set an O/U on when Mueller gets axed?

[Norah]

Anyone dare to set an O/U on when Mueller gets axed?

Thanksgiving

[BurtReynolds]

I have no idea what will happen. This is exciting!

[bart]

The Wall will be funded by 2020.