Red Mosquito

tragabigzanda wrote:

dimejinky99 wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:

bada wrote:Neither Ukraine nor any of their neighbors are obligated to capitulate to Russia because they have a fantasy about remaining a continental power and only feel secure when their borders go up against mountains and seas. Russia is worried about an invasion from the West that was never going to happen. The West only cares about maintaining the maritime order and making money. Europe would have loved if Russia joined in. The only country Russia has to worry about is their current ally China who would like nothing more than to take large swaths of Russian territory. Blaming countries that desperately wanted to be in NATO and enjoy western security because they have a long history of Russia doing horrible things to them is an odd take but a lot of people lean that way. It's a shame Trump is one of them. I'm not against the idea that Europe should be paying for and defending themselves and not relying on the U.S. in theory but I wonder what that looks like in practice. U.S. will lose a lot of influence and strong militaries in Europe tend to have historically bad results. There is undoubtably a ton of fraud, abuse and probably an ungodly amount of aid money that had gone into a few guys pockets and I'm sure Zelensky is neck deep in it but I'd still back them.

It looks like the US selling a shitload of next-gen warfighter tech to Europe. Leadership from both parties will benefit hugely from this.

‘It looks like ‘ ?

Who’s buying? Do you have a link?

I think you’re absolutely right to be skeptical. Trump’s prior trade wars did not have the intended consequence of driving massive US exports; while some kd that happened, it’s also true that countries used the Covid logistics realignment to find new sources for their goods.

EU has been historically under militarized, so the bet is that once they’re forced to defend their assets without US oversight (Burt cackles in the background), they’ll be too behind the innovation curve and will have to rely on US miltech. But their agility during Covid has demonstrated they at least have the capacity to not rely on the US for every widget. Time will tell.

Bi_3 wrote:I saw earlier today on tweeter that someone asked what the steelman argument for continuing the war is and both the answers and responses were seriously lacking. What is the steelman for continuing to fight?

tragabigzanda wrote:

dimejinky99 wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:

bada wrote:Neither Ukraine nor any of their neighbors are obligated to capitulate to Russia because they have a fantasy about remaining a continental power and only feel secure when their borders go up against mountains and seas. Russia is worried about an invasion from the West that was never going to happen. The West only cares about maintaining the maritime order and making money. Europe would have loved if Russia joined in. The only country Russia has to worry about is their current ally China who would like nothing more than to take large swaths of Russian territory. Blaming countries that desperately wanted to be in NATO and enjoy western security because they have a long history of Russia doing horrible things to them is an odd take but a lot of people lean that way. It's a shame Trump is one of them. I'm not against the idea that Europe should be paying for and defending themselves and not relying on the U.S. in theory but I wonder what that looks like in practice. U.S. will lose a lot of influence and strong militaries in Europe tend to have historically bad results. There is undoubtably a ton of fraud, abuse and probably an ungodly amount of aid money that had gone into a few guys pockets and I'm sure Zelensky is neck deep in it but I'd still back them.

It looks like the US selling a shitload of next-gen warfighter tech to Europe. Leadership from both parties will benefit hugely from this.

‘It looks like ‘ ?

Who’s buying? Do you have a link?

I think you’re absolutely right to be skeptical. Trump’s prior trade wars did not have the intended consequence of driving massive US exports; while some kd that happened, it’s also true that countries used the Covid logistics realignment to find new sources for their goods.

EU has been historically under militarized, so the bet is that once they’re forced to defend their assets without US oversight (Burt cackles in the background), they’ll be too behind the innovation curve and will have to rely on US miltech. But their agility during Covid has demonstrated they at least have the capacity to not rely on the US for every widget. Time will tell.

tragabigzanda wrote:Yes but there are lots of component inputs that could be sourced from US

tragabigzanda wrote:

dimejinky99 wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:Yes but there are lots of component inputs that could be sourced from US

But that’s not going to happen now is it? EU or any component country isn’t going to buy billions in hardware off the guy who’s threatening tariffs and a trade war etc. I can assure you of that. Hungary might. But that’s it. They’re going the right way about being expelled from the EU too. Putin owns that guy. Balls deep.

I don’t think there are any absolutes to be found with hardware purchases. You’re talking about thousands if not millions of specific components — from raw minerals to microchips, then large components and finished products. Places with access to capital and strategic trade route locations and arrangements will do more of the high value work; the other places will do more of the upstream stuff like mining and mineral processing.

Some stuff will be sourced from the US, and it’ll be the best stuff on the market, which is kind of important when you’re building war tech. Some of the other best stuff will definitely be sourced from elsewhere.

There won’t be much sentiment behind any of this. Price, scale, and technical advantage will continue to rule the marketplace; it’s just that the lines of production are being redrawn.

BurtReynolds wrote:

Bi_3 wrote:I saw earlier today on tweeter that someone asked what the steelman argument for continuing the war is and both the answers and responses were seriously lacking. What is the steelman for continuing to fight?

I think the strongest argument is to bleed out Russia as long as possible so they can't invade any other eastern countries.

Bi_3 wrote:

BurtReynolds wrote:

Bi_3 wrote:I saw earlier today on tweeter that someone asked what the steelman argument for continuing the war is and both the answers and responses were seriously lacking. What is the steelman for continuing to fight?

I think the strongest argument is to bleed out Russia as long as possible so they can't invade any other eastern countries.

That makes some sense, but it also seems like that strategy favors China's goals vs Ukraine's.

bada wrote:

Bi_3 wrote:

BurtReynolds wrote:

Bi_3 wrote:I saw earlier today on tweeter that someone asked what the steelman argument for continuing the war is and both the answers and responses were seriously lacking. What is the steelman for continuing to fight?

I think the strongest argument is to bleed out Russia as long as possible so they can't invade any other eastern countries.

That makes some sense, but it also seems like that strategy favors China's goals vs Ukraine's.

The most basic steelman is you can't allow a country to expand its territory through armed invasion.

bada wrote:

Bi_3 wrote:

BurtReynolds wrote:

Bi_3 wrote:I saw earlier today on tweeter that someone asked what the steelman argument for continuing the war is and both the answers and responses were seriously lacking. What is the steelman for continuing to fight?

I think the strongest argument is to bleed out Russia as long as possible so they can't invade any other eastern countries.

That makes some sense, but it also seems like that strategy favors China's goals vs Ukraine's.

The most basic steelman is you can't allow a country to expand its territory through armed invasion.

Anders wrote:

dimejinky99 wrote:

Anders wrote:

He should have pointed out most of that money stayed in the US and went to the weapons industry. It didn’t end up in Ukrainian coffers at all.