Red Mosquito

E.H. Ruddock wrote:

doug rr wrote:

E.H. Ruddock wrote:doug rr would be my ATF chief

I appreciate the nomination but I'll elect to stay retired and do nothing

Cool. You can be my VP then.

can I still wear shorts and go barefoot?

cutuphalfdead wrote:

E.H. Ruddock wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:I'd vote for Ruddo regardless of his politics. I'd just expect a cushy job in the administration.

You could be ambassador to whatever island country you choose.

Udd Brudds 4 Life

Or you could be the Attorney General. They don't really do anything, right?

E.H. Ruddock wrote:

BurtReynolds wrote:

E.H. Ruddock wrote:

BurtReynolds wrote:He's the Kanye of politics. This is a generational shift. A progressive revolution. I'm starting to understand LVs absurd love of all things populist. Pandering to the idiot masses ftw!

Trump for president.

How do you feel about him being overtly racist and sexist? That doesn't bother you?

He was misquoted.

flase

Is he actually a billionaire? I thought he was broke until he made a few million being on stupid reality tv and selling some books.

doug rr wrote:

E.H. Ruddock wrote:

doug rr wrote:

E.H. Ruddock wrote:doug rr would be my ATF chief

I appreciate the nomination but I'll elect to stay retired and do nothing

Cool. You can be my VP then.

can I still wear shorts and go barefoot?

E.H. Ruddock wrote:t2b would be my Secretary of State. He seems like he could get angry enough to get sh*t done.

I'm trying to control my anger issues, Ruddo.

I've made it 9 months without pushing a bluehair into a canal and 6 months without spitting on a Mormon neighbor.
Progress!

turned2black wrote:

E.H. Ruddock wrote:t2b would be my Secretary of State. He seems like he could get angry enough to get sh*t done.

I'm trying to control my anger issues, Ruddo.

I've made it 9 months without pushing a bluehair into a canal and 6 months without spitting on a Mormon neighbor.
Progress!

Secretary of State would be perfect for you then. You could control it like a professional should, but when Russia or North Korea really pisses you off, you could lose your sh*t on occasion. It's ok, we'll have the finest VA doctors at your disposal.

turned2black wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

turned2black wrote:We still have about 3 more weeks until I'll be actually worried about Trump.

I'm not worried until South Carolina.

I would normally agree with you. But man, it just doesn't look like anyone cares about what he actually says. I mean he basically called all immigrants rapists a couple of weeks ago and most people didn't even bat an eye. I think there is a growing sentiment among GOP voters that taking the "safe route" did fuck all for them in the last two elections.

Also,
# His "would never vote for" numbers are improving.
# His "second choice" numbers are improving, meaning that once other candidates start to drop, he could hypothetically improve his numbers.
# Bush is polling poorly because Rubio, Kasich and Walker are pulling his votes. All of those candidates probably won't drop out anytime soon.

I still think Bush is the front-runner, but this is starting to have a different feel than the last two elections. If he can't actually say anything that will implode his campaign and voters don't give a shit about "electability", then what's gonna stop him?

It's still waaaaaaaaaaay too early. I think he's mostly a beneficiary of the fact that are 17 candidates and as those numbers decline we'll see other candidates start trending upward. Nate Silver is very insistent that primary polls this far out mean virtually nothing and given his track record I tend to buy what he's selling on this topic. Last I saw he gives him a 2% chance of winning the nomination. Maybe he won't flame out in a magnificent burst of saying insane things and feeling the wrath of the world, but I still see almost no way that he can cobble together the delegates necessary to win the primary.

When will the number of candidates begin to decline, and how quickly? After Iowa and NH? before March? Will Super PACs be able to keep more losing candidates alive than in past years? Will that last long enough for Trump to win enough primaries to lock down a lot of delegates?

4/5 wrote:

turned2black wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

turned2black wrote:We still have about 3 more weeks until I'll be actually worried about Trump.

I'm not worried until South Carolina.

I would normally agree with you. But man, it just doesn't look like anyone cares about what he actually says. I mean he basically called all immigrants rapists a couple of weeks ago and most people didn't even bat an eye. I think there is a growing sentiment among GOP voters that taking the "safe route" did fuck all for them in the last two elections.

Also,
# His "would never vote for" numbers are improving.
# His "second choice" numbers are improving, meaning that once other candidates start to drop, he could hypothetically improve his numbers.
# Bush is polling poorly because Rubio, Kasich and Walker are pulling his votes. All of those candidates probably won't drop out anytime soon.

I still think Bush is the front-runner, but this is starting to have a different feel than the last two elections. If he can't actually say anything that will implode his campaign and voters don't give a shit about "electability", then what's gonna stop him?

It's still waaaaaaaaaaay too early. I think he's mostly a beneficiary of the fact that are 17 candidates and as those numbers decline we'll see other candidates start trending upward. Nate Silver is very insistent that primary polls this far out mean virtually nothing and given his track record I tend to buy what he's selling on this topic. Last I saw he gives him a 2% chance of winning the nomination. Maybe he won't flame out in a magnificent burst of saying insane things and feeling the wrath of the world, but I still see almost no way that he can cobble together the delegates necessary to win the primary.

I agree with most of this and think Nate Silver is a genius. But some of these numbers are disturbing and hard to ignore. Particularly the fact that his "would never vote for" numbers are half of what they were 4 months ago and his "second choice" numbers are so good. I know history says otherwise with this kind of candidate, but at some point these numbers don't lie.
Again, he has increased his lead since the debate despite saying all sorts of crazy shit, which to me could signal him not just being a passing fancy or a "name" candidate, but a candidate voters will go down in flames with. He has the money, thrives on controversy and seems to already be battle-tested.
Let's be honest, of those 17 candidates only 10 of them (at the most) are really getting significant numbers. I do think Bush or Rubio will still get most of the votes from the candidates who leave, but Trump will get some. Also, Trump will likely get the majority of Carson's voters if and when he drops out.
Again, I said I was 3 weeks to a month from being worried and history does say something will happen, but Trump shows no signs of faltering at this point.
It's hard for me to keep screaming "history, history!" when he's putting up these numbers.

The Argonaut wrote:When will the number of candidates begin to decline, and how quickly? After Iowa and NH? before March? Will Super PACs be able to keep more losing candidates alive than in past years? Will that last long enough for Trump to win enough primaries to lock down a lot of delegates?

Typically you can expect that a couple may not make it to Iowa due to fundraising issues. After Iowa and NH the bottom feeders will be out, whether officially or not. The worst performers won't be able to raise money so they'll be effectively done even if they don't officially drop out until South Carolina or Nevada. I suppose it's possible that a SuperPAC could allow a bottom feeder to hang around longer but generally speaking I wouldn't expect a candidate who performed very poorly in the first 4 to stick around. The exception might be if they perform moderately well in SC, still have a decent war chest and can convince themselves that their key to victory is the South.

There are at least 17 states (in addition to the first 4) who are going to hold their primary before March 15. This is significant because those primaries will award delegates on a proportional basis, which typically allows more candidates to stick around and also greatly reduces the reward for winning a primary with a small plurality of votes. From March 15 forward states can go winner-take-all, which should allow the winner to emerge pretty quickly after that. At the very least the field should be whittled down much faster at that point.

turned2black wrote:

4/5 wrote:

turned2black wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

turned2black wrote:We still have about 3 more weeks until I'll be actually worried about Trump.

I'm not worried until South Carolina.

I would normally agree with you. But man, it just doesn't look like anyone cares about what he actually says. I mean he basically called all immigrants rapists a couple of weeks ago and most people didn't even bat an eye. I think there is a growing sentiment among GOP voters that taking the "safe route" did fuck all for them in the last two elections.

Also,
# His "would never vote for" numbers are improving.
# His "second choice" numbers are improving, meaning that once other candidates start to drop, he could hypothetically improve his numbers.
# Bush is polling poorly because Rubio, Kasich and Walker are pulling his votes. All of those candidates probably won't drop out anytime soon.

I still think Bush is the front-runner, but this is starting to have a different feel than the last two elections. If he can't actually say anything that will implode his campaign and voters don't give a shit about "electability", then what's gonna stop him?

It's still waaaaaaaaaaay too early. I think he's mostly a beneficiary of the fact that are 17 candidates and as those numbers decline we'll see other candidates start trending upward. Nate Silver is very insistent that primary polls this far out mean virtually nothing and given his track record I tend to buy what he's selling on this topic. Last I saw he gives him a 2% chance of winning the nomination. Maybe he won't flame out in a magnificent burst of saying insane things and feeling the wrath of the world, but I still see almost no way that he can cobble together the delegates necessary to win the primary.

I agree with most of this and think Nate Silver is a genius. But some of these numbers are disturbing and hard to ignore. Particularly the fact that his "would never vote for" numbers are half of what they were 4 months ago and his "second choice" numbers are so good. I know history says otherwise with this kind of candidate, but at some point these numbers don't lie.
Again, he has increased his lead since the debate despite saying all sorts of crazy shit, which to me could signal him not just being a passing fancy or a "name" candidate, but a candidate voters will go down in flames with. He has the money, thrives on controversy and seems to already be battle-tested.
Let's be honest, of those 17 candidates only 10 of them (at the most) are really getting significant numbers. I do think Bush or Rubio will still get most of the votes from the candidates who leave, but Trump will get some. Also, Trump will likely get the majority of Carson's voters if and when he drops out.
Again, I said I was 3 weeks to a month from being worried and history does say something will happen, but Trump shows no signs of faltering at this point.
It's hard for me to keep screaming "history, history!" when he's putting up these numbers.

I understand what you're saying. I expected him to be DOA after his campaign announcement to be honest.

I view him as a symbol of white dissatisfaction among voters. There are other candidates who can carry that mantle once more people get to know them. I think it's really hard for people who are politically minded to remember that most people aren't heavily invested in this yet. Iowa polls fluctuate greatly in the months before their caucus virtually every cycle. People haven't come close to making a decision yet, and there's also the issue with polls not polling likely primary voters. I think at this point the fact that he continues to poll well shows that he probably won't lose because he said something crazy and that there is a not insignificant group of voters who are so tired of politics-as-usual that they are willing to vote for a clown. I still don't think he's a viable candidate to actually win the nomination.

I was about to call Ben Carson a dark horse candidate, but something about that just didn't feel right.

4/5 wrote:

turned2black wrote:

4/5 wrote:

turned2black wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

turned2black wrote:We still have about 3 more weeks until I'll be actually worried about Trump.

I'm not worried until South Carolina.

I would normally agree with you. But man, it just doesn't look like anyone cares about what he actually says. I mean he basically called all immigrants rapists a couple of weeks ago and most people didn't even bat an eye. I think there is a growing sentiment among GOP voters that taking the "safe route" did fuck all for them in the last two elections.

Also,
# His "would never vote for" numbers are improving.
# His "second choice" numbers are improving, meaning that once other candidates start to drop, he could hypothetically improve his numbers.
# Bush is polling poorly because Rubio, Kasich and Walker are pulling his votes. All of those candidates probably won't drop out anytime soon.

I still think Bush is the front-runner, but this is starting to have a different feel than the last two elections. If he can't actually say anything that will implode his campaign and voters don't give a shit about "electability", then what's gonna stop him?

It's still waaaaaaaaaaay too early. I think he's mostly a beneficiary of the fact that are 17 candidates and as those numbers decline we'll see other candidates start trending upward. Nate Silver is very insistent that primary polls this far out mean virtually nothing and given his track record I tend to buy what he's selling on this topic. Last I saw he gives him a 2% chance of winning the nomination. Maybe he won't flame out in a magnificent burst of saying insane things and feeling the wrath of the world, but I still see almost no way that he can cobble together the delegates necessary to win the primary.

I agree with most of this and think Nate Silver is a genius. But some of these numbers are disturbing and hard to ignore. Particularly the fact that his "would never vote for" numbers are half of what they were 4 months ago and his "second choice" numbers are so good. I know history says otherwise with this kind of candidate, but at some point these numbers don't lie.
Again, he has increased his lead since the debate despite saying all sorts of crazy shit, which to me could signal him not just being a passing fancy or a "name" candidate, but a candidate voters will go down in flames with. He has the money, thrives on controversy and seems to already be battle-tested.
Let's be honest, of those 17 candidates only 10 of them (at the most) are really getting significant numbers. I do think Bush or Rubio will still get most of the votes from the candidates who leave, but Trump will get some. Also, Trump will likely get the majority of Carson's voters if and when he drops out.
Again, I said I was 3 weeks to a month from being worried and history does say something will happen, but Trump shows no signs of faltering at this point.
It's hard for me to keep screaming "history, history!" when he's putting up these numbers.

I understand what you're saying. I expected him to be DOA after his campaign announcement to be honest.

I view him as a symbol of white dissatisfaction among voters. There are other candidates who can carry that mantle once more people get to know them. I think it's really hard for people who are politically minded to remember that most people aren't heavily invested in this yet. Iowa polls fluctuate greatly in the months before their caucus virtually every cycle. People haven't come close to making a decision yet, and there's also the issue with polls not polling likely primary voters. I think at this point the fact that he continues to poll well shows that he probably won't lose because he said something crazy and that there is a not insignificant group of voters who are so tired of politics-as-usual that they are willing to vote for a clown. I still don't think he's a viable candidate to actually win the nomination.

I was about to call Ben Carson a dark horse candidate, but something about that just didn't feel right.

I don't think he's a viable candidate either. But I'm not giving America the benefit of the doubt anymore and I think those "behind the scenes" in the Republican party will be less likely to move against him and push a more "electable" candidate this time around.

Again, I'm still not saying he's the front-runner, but I do think it's nearing the time to at least start to be worried. And despite what Nate says, I'd certainly put his chances at better than 2%.

The republican party isn't really dumb enough to back trump are they? I think trump getting eh nomination would rally "the left" in numbers not seen in years and would ultimately destroy trump in the national election.

I hope im right.

BTW, Nate Silver more than doubled Trump's chances of winning the nomination. He's now at 5%.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/if-d ... could-too/

turned2black wrote:BTW, Nate Silver more than doubled Trump's chances of winning the nomination. He's now at 5%.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/if-d ... could-too/

I am terrible at public speaking, but jeebus his transcripts are terrible. Finish a friggin line of thought! Is his rambling train of thought his strength? Any outburst he has could relate to what he just said, or it could be what he said two minutes ago. I wouldn't dare ascribe it to his strategy, but is it fair to say that people are free to read whatever they want to what he says?

Are cyber party supporters.dopes too for.supporting mcafee

Campaigning.electronically.

This could and should be in the 2016 election thread.

Listening to some of these rupublicans talk about abortion pushes me over the edge like no other issue. I try to be empathetic and open-minded, but Jesus Christ, these guys cross a line into pure fucking evil on this issue. Some of the most dehumanizing, despicable, disgusting, unacceptable rhetoric I've ever heard. Goddammit I am so angry right now.

Television Politics are bad for your health.