Red Mosquito

numbers wrote:I kinda think the 2nd year is when you find out what the deal is with the Japanese starters. Tanaka has been phenomenal this far, though.

So true....

@SkitchP wrote:wtf tony gwynn?!

Tony Gwynn's incredible numbers

What Rogers Hornsby and Honus Wagner were to their generation, that's what the late, great Tony Gwynn was to his generation.

He didn't play baseball in an age when men routinely hit .424 or .404. He played in an era when it was big news if anyone even got within 50 points of that. Except for the fact he did that every darned year, no matter what.

Then again, he also didn't play baseball in an age when we were obsessed with walks, or on-base-percentage, or wRC+. So maybe, if someone like Tony Gwynn arrived in the big leagues tomorrow, we wouldn't value him quite the way we appreciated him in his own time.

But all I know is this: I've never seen anyone, in my years covering baseball, who mastered the art of bat meeting ball as brilliantly, or as artfully, as Tony Gwynn.

On the day he retired 13 years ago, I took a look at his incredible hitting genius, measured through the columns on the stat sheet he owned like no one else -- the batting average column, the hits column and the strikeouts (or lack thereof) column.

I've updated those numbers now, in the wake of the awful news of Tony Gwynn's death. But his feats are as amazing today as they were back then. And I have a feeling that won't change -- for about the next 12 centuries:

• Gwynn hit .338 over a 20-year career. No one else whose career started after World War II has even gotten closer than 10 points of him -- at least no one with 5,000 plate appearances or more.

• In the 14 seasons from 1984 through 1997, Gwynn finished in the top five in the batting race 13 times. And in the only season he didn't -- in 1990 -- he missed by one hit.

• He had three different seasons in which he hit .370 or higher. In the 73 years since Ted Williams last hit .400, all the other hitters who passed through the big leagues -- a group that includes Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Wade Boggs, yadda, yadda, yadda -- combined to do it only eight times.

[+] EnlargeTony Gwynn
AP Photo/John Swart
In addition to this double in 1993, Tony Gwynn had 3,140 other hits in his 20-year career.
• No hitter born after 1900 reached 3,000 hits in fewer games (2,284) or at-bats (8,874) than Gwynn. In the history of baseball, only Ty Cobb and Nap Lajoie got there faster -- and when they played, the gloves were made of the same material as those trains they rode on.

• No 3,000-hit man who was born after 1900 had a higher lifetime batting average than Gwynn (.338). In fact, according to the Elias Sports Bureau's Steve Hirdt, no hitter born since 1918 (i.e., since Ted Williams) has even gotten 2,000 hits and had an average this high.

• No hitter who has played his entire career since the invention of the designated hitter has accumulated as many hits as Gwynn (3,141) without spending a large portion of his career in the American League. But Gwynn got every one of his hits in the National League. And he was proud of that.

• Gwynn had six straight seasons (and eight altogether) in which he struck out fewer than 20 times. Did you know there were 97 hitters in the big leagues who whiffed at least 20 times just last month?

• Finally, what does it mean to have piled up a .338 batting average over a 20-year career, over 9,288 at-bats? It means Tony Gwynn would have had to go 0-for-his-next-1,183 to get his average to fall under .300 (and even then, it would have "plummeted" to a mere .29997). We kid you not.

OK, got all that digested. Here comes more.

• Gwynn got hits off Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton and Phil Niekro -- four men who won a combined 1,282 games.

• He hit .400 or better against eight different Cy Young winners -- Greg? Maddux, John Smoltz, Bret Saberhagen, Vida Blue, John Denny, Dennis Eckersley, Mark Davis and Doug Drabek -- and batted at least .300 against seven more.

• He racked up 39 hits off Maddux (39-for-94, .415), 32 against Smoltz (32-for-72, .444) and 30 against Tom Glavine (30-for-99, .303).

• And none of these pitchers ever struck him out: Pedro Martinez (35 AB), Hideo Nomo (25 AB), Mike Hampton (33 AB) or, incredibly, Maddux (in 94 AB).

"When he strikes out swinging," his old hitting coach, Merv Rettenmund, once told me, "the pitcher's shocked. He's shocked. Everybody in the stadium is shocked. He's the best hitter I've seen in 35 years."

For two decades, Tony Gwynn was also the best friend those of us in the media-genius prediction business ever had. Why? Because, thanks to him, you never had to dread that annual spring assignment of picking the batting champ. Heck, we knew, he knew and everyone else knew who was going to win that NL batting title before anyone even threw a pitch.

So maybe we never saw Hornsby or Wagner or Tris Speaker hit a baseball. But we were lucky enough to see Tony Gwynn fire baseballs all over the field, into open spaces from coast to coast, for 20 years. We'll be proud to tell our grandchildren we did.

Fuck You Jobu wrote:Then again, he also didn't play baseball in an age when we were obsessed with walks, or on-base-percentage, or wRC+. So maybe, if someone like Tony Gwynn arrived in the big leagues tomorrow, we wouldn't value him quite the way we appreciated him in his own time.

Gwynn was the kind of player where I think this kind of statement is simply not true. His walk rate was pretty average, but when combined with his unbelievable hitting skills, he would be among the elite players in the league. His career OBP is .388... only 14 players managed to do better than that last year. Miguel Cabrera's OBP was .442 last year when he was hand downs the best hitter in baseball, and Gwynn bested that number twice in his career. And his wRC+, again for his CAREER, was 132, which is outstanding.

I almost feel like it does a disservice to just how good a player someone like Tony Gwynn really was to suggest that people wouldn't appreciate him as much if he played today.

I was looking at the all time avg leaders in MLB history, Gwynn is up there and like no one else near him was a modern-era player.

numbers wrote:I was looking at the all time avg leaders in MLB history, Gwynn is up there and like no one else near him was a modern-era player.

Ted Williams is the only one with a higher career average since 1940 (.346 vs. .338). That's crazy.

philpritchard wrote:

numbers wrote:I was looking at the all time avg leaders in MLB history, Gwynn is up there and like no one else near him was a modern-era player.

Ted Williams is the only one with a higher career average since 1940 (.346 vs. .338). That's crazy.

even taking Ichiros Japanese stats, hes got 4215 hits in 12770 at bats combined, for a .330 batting average

Knowing Ichiro has barely missed a game, id say you could make the argument Gwynn would have got to 4000 and possibly made a run at Rose

Counting Ichiro's Japanese hits is such a pet peeve of mine.

Chris_H_2 wrote:I'm still reserving judgment on Tanaka until clubs have faced him 2-3 times. The Cubs got dominated by him the first time they faced him, and actually beat him the second.

Making his second start against the Jays tonight. Tanaka vs. Stroman should be awesome!

philpritchard wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:I'm still reserving judgment on Tanaka until clubs have faced him 2-3 times. The Cubs got dominated by him the first time they faced him, and actually beat him the second.

Making his second start against the Jays tonight. Tanaka vs. Stroman should be awesome!

Good to know -- thanks. I'll actually flip between this and the shit show in Comerica Park (and then probably permanently to this once a Tigers starter throws 110 pitches in 3 and 1/3 innings and he and the bullpen give up 7+ over the next 2).

MadTIGERmaN wrote:even taking Ichiros Japanese stats, hes got 4215 hits in 12770 at bats combined, for a .330 batting average

Knowing Ichiro has barely missed a game, id say you could make the argument Gwynn would have got to 4000 and possibly made a run at Rose

I don't think Gwynn would have gotten to 4,000. From the ages of 24 to 39 (his time as an everyday starter) he averaged 226 hits for every 162 games. Even playing every single game (which is fairly unrealistic) and producing at that clip, that puts him at 3,616 for that period. When you add in his hits from 1982 and 1983, that still puts him at 3,765 going into his forties. If he were still able to stay healthy and play 162 games a year at 40 and 41 and hit at the same rate then you get past 4,000 and into Rose terriroty, but the idea that the guy would average 226 hits per season while playing all 162 games for eighteen years is pretty unreasonable.

None of this is a slight at Gwynn. 4,000 is just a really, really absurd number. Pete Rose and Ty Cobb both played 24 seasons to get there, and no one else has even sniffed it.

Lament wrote:

MadTIGERmaN wrote:even taking Ichiros Japanese stats, hes got 4215 hits in 12770 at bats combined, for a .330 batting average

Knowing Ichiro has barely missed a game, id say you could make the argument Gwynn would have got to 4000 and possibly made a run at Rose

I don't think Gwynn would have gotten to 4,000. From the ages of 24 to 39 (his time as an everyday starter) he averaged 226 hits for every 162 games. Even playing every single game (which is fairly unrealistic) and producing at that clip, that puts him at 3,616 for that period. When you add in his hits from 1982 and 1983, that still puts him at 3,765 going into his forties. If he were still able to stay healthy and play 162 games a year at 40 and 41 and hit at the same rate then you get past 4,000 and into Rose terriroty, but the idea that the guy would average 226 hits per season while playing all 162 games for eighteen years is pretty unreasonable.

None of this is a slight at Gwynn. 4,000 is just a really, really absurd number. Pete Rose and Ty Cobb both played 24 seasons to get there, and no one else has even sniffed it.

Yeah, Rose got to that number by putting up nearly 900 hits over his last 7 seasons, by which point he was mostly useless. Gwynn was different. He missed a lot of time throughout his career, but he also called it quits when he was still a very good hitter rather than sticking around to pile up more numbers.

While checking out some of Gwynn's numbers, I couldnt help but notice how fucking ridiculous Ty Cobb's career statline is. The guy might have been an epic asshole, but man, was he some kind of player.

Paul Molitor is the guy who I'll always wonder if he could have gotten up around Aaron's 3,771 had he been healthy (or played longer). He missed basically an entire season at age 27 (1984), lost games to the 1981 and 1994 strikes, and missed sizable chunks of the 1980, 1986, 1987, and 1990 seasons. In his last full season he still played 126 games and hit .281 (he had hit .305 at age 40 and .341 while leading the league in hits at 39, both as an everyday player). He finished his career with 3,319 hits. If he'd have been healthy for the 1984 season alone it's reasonable to think he could have racked up another 200 hits, which would put him at fifth all-time. The two strikes probably cost him at least another 150, which would have put him behind only Rose, Cobb, and Aaron, and that's with still missing big chunks of four other seasons.

Royals in first? Good for them!

Is it too late for me to change my mind and ask for robot umpires?

Can the Mariners please have some of the Dodgers' hitters? Maybe just borrow them on nights when Felix pitches?

Bammer wrote:Can the Mariners please have some of the Dodgers' hitters? Maybe just borrow them on nights when Felix pitches?

the same dodgers hitters that are playing .500 ball with the best starting rotation money can buy?

btw Toronto fans, how did you like Tanaka the 2nd time around

i made it to my first MLB game in a LONG time saturday evening and had a great time. a few friends and I went to the Nationals vs Braves game and though my Braves got shut out i was still really happy to see Teheran pitching a great game, and one of the main highlights for me was Terry Pendleton tossing me a ball after he was done pitching batting practice. im definitely hoping to make it to another game soon

Dr. Van Nostrand wrote:i made it to my first MLB game in a LONG time saturday evening and had a great time. a few friends and I went to the Nationals vs Braves game and though my Braves got shut out i was still really happy to see Teheran pitching a great game, and one of the main highlights for me was Terry Pendleton tossing me a ball after he was done pitching batting practice. im definitely hoping to make it to another game soon

IM hitting up the Brewers/Nats game Weds afternoon (friend says its Strasburghs turn on the rotation) then hitting up Summerfest and Ben Harper at night. First time Ive ever gotten to hit a Brewer game AND Summerfest double header.

I havnt got a ball in YEARS though.