Red Mosquito

Green Habit wrote:

digster wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/upshot/trump-electoral-college-edge-.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-upshotnyt

But Mr. Trump’s approval rating has been stable even after seemingly big missteps. And if it improves by a modest amount — not unusual for incumbents with a strong economy — he could have a distinct chance to win re-election while losing the popular vote by more than he did in 2016, when he lost it by 2.1 percentage points.

The president’s relative advantage in the Electoral College could grow even further in a high-turnout election, which could pad Democratic margins nationwide while doing little to help them in the Northern battleground states.

It is even possible that Mr. Trump could win while losing the national vote by as much as five percentage points.

Here's how it gets even worse than this:
--Dems gain ground in the House, and even pick up a couple Senate seats, but not enough to take it.
--The Dem presidential candidate continues to run up the score in deep blue states, and makes gains in TX/GA/NC/AZ but doesn't win any of those states. As a result, the Dem candidate gets this hypothesized five point popular vote win.
--Trump loses MI, PA, and the lone EV vote in Maine, but holds all his other states from 2016. The electoral vote result would be...269-269.
--The House, despite having a 40+ Dem advantage, ends up with a 26-24 state delegation in favor of the GOP. Those 26 delegations re-elect Trump.

Green Habit wrote:

digster wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/upshot/trump-electoral-college-edge-.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-upshotnyt

But Mr. Trump’s approval rating has been stable even after seemingly big missteps. And if it improves by a modest amount — not unusual for incumbents with a strong economy — he could have a distinct chance to win re-election while losing the popular vote by more than he did in 2016, when he lost it by 2.1 percentage points.

The president’s relative advantage in the Electoral College could grow even further in a high-turnout election, which could pad Democratic margins nationwide while doing little to help them in the Northern battleground states.

It is even possible that Mr. Trump could win while losing the national vote by as much as five percentage points.

Here's how it gets even worse than this:
--Dems gain ground in the House, and even pick up a couple Senate seats, but not enough to take it.
--The Dem presidential candidate continues to run up the score in deep blue states, and makes gains in TX/GA/NC/AZ but doesn't win any of those states. As a result, the Dem candidate gets this hypothesized five point popular vote win.
--Trump loses MI, PA, and the lone EV vote in Maine, but holds all his other states from 2016. The electoral vote result would be...269-269.
--The House, despite having a 40+ Dem advantage, ends up with a 26-24 state delegation in favor of the GOP. Those 26 delegations re-elect Trump.

cutuphalfdead wrote:And there goes my faith in American Democracy.

And there goes my faith in American Democracy.

tragabigzanda wrote:I think the best ticket the Dems could put forward might be Bullock/Warren. Bullock would pull in all those lapsed indies with his moderate white guy stuff, and Warren would keep the libs pacified enough to Rock the Vote.

No way do I see this happening in real life though.

BurtReynolds wrote:From someone worth over 200 million and never served a day in his life:

tragabigzanda wrote:Bettermandatory

McParadigm wrote:Discussing John Delaney’s presidential ambitions is like debating the match ten cards down from Papa Shango vs the Ultimate Warrior.