The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

[96583UP]

from bloomberg news:

What happens now that Trump is convicted?

The next step will be for Judge Juan Merchan to sentence him, which is scheduled for July 11. That’s just days before the July 15 Republican National Convention, where the party is set to officially select Trump as its presidential nominee for the Nov. 5 election. Merchan said Trump could remain free until his sentencing.

A typical defendant convicted of a felony charge is sentenced to serve some prison time, but there is nothing in the law that requires it. Merchan could instead sentence Trump to probation, especially if he decides that leniency is warranted because the former president is 77 years old and a first-time offender with no criminal record. Trump could also be ordered to pay some kind of financial penalty.

Still, Merchan has made it clear that he takes white-collar crime seriously and already warned Trump he could put him behind bars for repeatedly violating a gag order. He also acknowledged the unique security requirements of imprisoning a former president under 24-hour Secret Service protection.

How long could Trump go to jail?

Each of the counts is a Class E felony, which carries a prison term from 1 1/3 years to four years. Since Trump was found guilty on more than one count, Merchan could impose a concurrent sentence, meaning the former president would serve all of his prison time simultaneously. He could also order Trump to serve the counts one after the other, but legal experts have said that isn’t likely.

Can Trump appeal?

Yes, and he immediately vowed to contest the verdict, saying the fight was “long from over.” But he can only appeal his conviction in New York state after his sentencing.

The first step would be a Manhattan appeals court. Eventually an appeal could make its way to New York’s Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court in Albany; Trump could eventually ask the US Supreme Court to weigh in.

It would be up to Merchan to decide whether to jail Trump or allow him to remain free while he appeals. While criminal defendants in New York state can typically be jailed while the appeals process plays out, that would not necessarily apply to Trump because he’s charged with a non-violent, white-collar crime.

Where might Trump serve time?

It’s not clear where Trump would serve any jail sentence, though the US Secret Service, which protects current or former presidents, has met with federal, state and city officials to discuss the possibility of Trump behind bars.

If Trump is sentenced to a year or less in prison, he could possibly serve it at New York’s Rikers Island, which includes seven jails. Allen Weisselberg, 76, the former chief financial officer of the Trump Organization who recently pleaded guilty to perjury, is completing a five-month term in a medical unit at the complex.

Does Trump’s conviction mean he can’t run for reelection?

Trump can still run for office. The US Constitution sets few eligibility requirements for the position, including no limitations based on character or criminal record.

How could the verdict affect the 2024 election?

It’s not clear how his conviction might affect the outcome of the election. But if Trump wins, the US would for the first time have a convicted felon serving as its head of state — a fact that is not uncommon throughout the rest of the world. Trump has compared himself to the late South African leader Nelson Mandela, who was imprisoned for 27 years for opposing the apartheid regime.

Can Trump pardon himself if reelected?

Not in this case because the Manhattan case was brought by state and not federal prosecutors. (That’s also true in the Fulton County, Georgia case, which, like New York, is a state prosecution.) But in the two federal cases, Trump could theoretically direct the Justice Department to drop the cases if reelected.

[96583UP]

my guess is he gets off easy without jail time

but it is nice to know he can't appeal until after July 11th

RNC on July 15th gonna be a real zoo i expect

[Strat]

my guess is he gets off easy without jail time

but it is nice to know he can't appeal until after July 11th

RNC on July 15th gonna be a real zoo i expect

It won't. They'll line up behind him.

RNC might be done if they prop him up and he loses again though. Maybe

[96583UP]

oh i expect them to support him

i meant zoo bc it will be so bizarre to see people emphatically standing up for him and claiming this was a withchunt etc

just pure lunacy

nothing remotely policy-oriented

that is what i expect

and a shitty musical act from like kid rock or something

[Rangi Guy]

[Bi_3]

oh i expect them to support him

i meant zoo bc it will be so bizarre to see people emphatically standing up for him and claiming this was a withchunt etc

just pure lunacy

nothing remotely policy-oriented

that is what i expect

and a shitty musical act from like kid rock or something

Without googling, what exact was the crime he was convicted of?

[96583UP]

pedophilia

[Bi_3]

pedophilia

Showering with kids is the other guy.

[96583UP]

pedophilia

Showering with kids is the other guy.

ancient greeks are confused

[Bi_3]

pedophilia

Showering with kids is the other guy.

ancient greeks are confused

I'm sure they remember Ridin' with Biden.

[Peeps]

pedophilia

Showering with kids is the other guy.

keep sanduskys name outchyour mouth

[Bi_3]

To be clear, he’s guilty of the crime. But this was a huge mistake. Should have focused on Georgia as that car would have the opposite effect on the thin slice of undecided voters that this one will.

[Peeps]

To be clear, he’s guilty of the crime. But this was a huge mistake. Should have focused on Georgia as that car would have the opposite effect on the thin slice of undecided voters that this one will.

why cant he be guilty in both cases?

[96583UP]

i think this will impact Independent voters the most

they are an important swing contingent in elections

I expect this verdict will sour some who were on the fence

[Captain Termite]

he’s still going to be elected.

this place is broken.

I think this is a boost to his election prospects.

I'm skeptical because people say this all the time. After everything.

He gets impeached - "that will help his election chances"
Someone famous criticizes him - "that will help his election chances"
He loses a lawsuit - "that will help his election chances"
Everyone makes fun of him for drawing on the hurricane map with a sharpie - "that will help his election chances"
He loses another lawsuit - "that will help his election chances"
One of his cronies gets arrested - "that will help his election chances"
The woman he raped sues him - "that will help his election chances"
He gets impeached again - "that will help his election chances"
A judge puts a gag order on him - "that will help his election chances"
He gets banned from Twitter - "that will help his election chances"
They take his name off Trump Tower or something - "that will help his election chances"
He gets indicted for stealing classified documents - "that will help his election chances"

This sentiment is often coming out of Trumpworld. They do protest too much. If it was always true, he'll get 480 electoral college votes.

[simple schoolboy]

There's a lot of, "lets talk game theory" posting in the right Twitter verse right now. Based on the previous Trump admin and lack of righty organizing in general it seems kinda pathetic. A party that wanted to win would have started training vote harvesters in 2020 and had people assigned to every memory care center in the country.

[wease]

he’s still going to be elected.

this place is broken.

There's still hope that the stress of all this will kill him. We all need to make sure to pray for it every night.

Trumpism doesn’t die with him, Tom.

No. But they have no viable person to “carry the torch” and be as successful as he has been. Once he’s gone, MAGA will finally die back down to the fringe, alt-right club that it should’ve always been relegated to.

[dad]

someone should just bare-ass fart on his pillow.

[Bi_3]

To be clear, he’s guilty of the crime. But this was a huge mistake. Should have focused on Georgia as that car would have the opposite effect on the thin slice of undecided voters that this one will.

why cant he be guilty in both cases?

I suspect he will be found guilty in Georgia as well. The difference is that the Georgia case is a clear-cut crime and direct interference with the 2020 election. This was different, a novel legal theory with clear political motivations, and breaks a taboo that helped keep the perception that the justice system would not be used as a partisan tool to interfere in elections. Again, he was found guilty and thus is until his appeal... which will be delayed for as long as possible to cause the most possible damage to his campaign... but just think about what it looks like to ~30% of the country when their candidate cannot attend a debate or campaign because he' sitting in Rikers for a crime no one had heard of before last year. Or think about the reaction after Roe was overturned, how millions started claiming the Supreme Court was "illegitimate", but in this case the folks effected are the same ones that did January 6th. Justice the outcome was done, but was justice the process done? That's a harder sell.

I'd bet we will see Trump fall in the polls for the next couple weeks, then shoot back up once red team messaging finds footing.

[McParadigm]

Everybody’s always in such a hurry to predict polling impacts, and we’re always too fixated on near-term effects.

The real problem the GOP has right now is that it has spent the last 8 years cultivating a hierarchy of personalities based on loyalty to, and public demonstration of combat readiness for, Trump. So regardless of what the initial impacts to the polls are, the fact of the matter is that conservative politicians and mouthpieces are all going to be trapped in a cycle of desperately trying to be the loudest and most vindictive person in the room.

Just as presidential season is truly kicking into gear.

As was mentioned, the convention will be a swamp of rage soundbites and “let’s hunt Hunter” 30 second video clips. For 48 of the loudest campaign outreach hours available to them, the party will flood the Internet with…very little talk about inflation. Very little talk about policy. Just an absolute shit ton of pseudo-civil war rabble rousing and posturing. Just a whole bunch of trying to impress daddy at the dinner table.

The real impact to this election won’t be revealed by whatever polling change you see in the next few weeks. It will be decided by whether or not the party can segue itself back into talking about government and policy, instead of choking half to death on grievance and retribution fetishism.