Election 2016

[tommymtcom]

Damn, he sounds like a total Psychopath

[simple schoolboy]

Damn, he sounds like a total Psychopath

The second block quote reads like something out of a scientology document regarding the treatment of "supressive persons".

[Stickman]

Clinton's email woes aren't over yet

[Simple Torture]

[Dev]

And to make creative choices, he writes: "I try to step back and remember my first shallow reaction. The day I realized it can be smart to be shallow was, for me, a deep experience."

I have to admit, I really like this.

[Rob]

Clinton's email woes aren't over yet

I'm as big a Bernie supporter as anyone, but HA Goodman embarrasses me.

[b_i_revisited]

Clinton's email woes aren't over yet

I'm as big a Bernie supporter as anyone, but HA Goodman embarrasses me.

"I explain in this CNN New Day appearance why Hillary Clinton's actions epitomize white privilege"

Really? Really?


I also find it amusing that Clinton's email were a bullshit non-issue until Bernie had a legit chance at the White House and now....

[Kaius]

So, how do all the pundits feel about Bernie's chances now?

[Simple Torture]

Should we be preparing ourselves for a Cruz candidacy? It's looking less and less likely that Trump will get to 1237 committed delegates before the convention, and the way Republican loyalists are going to pack the convention with anti-Trumpers makes it look like--unless he can convince dozens of unbound delegates to come to his side before July--there's going to be more than one ballot. This is going to be one of the more interesting political summers in a long time. A long time.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Simple Torture]

Should we be preparing ourselves for a Cruz candidacy? It's looking less and less likely that Trump will get to 1237 committed delegates before the convention, and the way Republican loyalists are going to pack the convention with anti-Trumpers makes it look like--unless he can convince dozens of unbound delegates to come to his side before July--there's going to be more than one ballot. This is going to be one of the more interesting political summers in a long time. A long time.

It's such a double-edged sword. I think Trump would fair much better in the general election than Cruz, yet a Cruz presidency is decidedly more terrifying than a Trump presidency.

I'm not so sure if there's enough targeted polling to really forecast that yet (on the other hand, there has been a lot of studying Trump's chances), but my gut--which, although it's not always right, is probably larger than your gut, so I've got that going for me--tells me that it may be the opposite. Trump's "base" isn't as traditional as Cruz's base, and Cruz might (might) be able to pull from demographics that Trump can't really touch (i.e., POC).

Also, The Onion continues to kill their Ted Cruz coverage:

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Simple Torture]

Fivethirtyeight has had a bunch of discussions about being cautious about singling out women as a "voting block" considering they make up half of the electorate. We might see one of the biggest "overall" swings ever with Clinton running, but it's not like there are pockets of the country where women tend to dominate--they're just 50% of the field overall.

How Women Leaned:

2012 Obama 55-44
2008 Obama 56-43
2004 Kerry 51-48
2000 Gore 54-44
1996 Clinton 55-38
1992 Clinton 45-38-17
1988 Bush 51-49
1984 Reagan 58-42
1980 Reagan 47-46
1976 Carter 52-48

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Simple Torture]

Interesting. Any idea why so many women voted for Reagan and Bush in the 80s? Were they putting the economy ahead of their uteruses (uterii?)?

Well, 1984 was such a drubbing that you can almost throw it out as a statistical anomaly. '80 and '88, though, I think help prove the point that the 538 folks were making: "women" is such a diverse category (socioeconomic levels, religion, region, type of work, age, etc.) that you should probably expect it to be around 50/50 (as it basically was in '80 and '88) if there weren't any other mitigating circumstances (a candidate who's backwards on women's issues, a woman is actually running).

[Simple Torture]

Notice how women have "picked" the winner every time except for 2000 (when Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college) and 2004 (which was only a 3-mil vote spread, but an electoral squeaker). That has less to say about women "swinging" an election and more about the fact that they're representative of the nation as a whole.

[Jorge]

Bernie isn't good with specifics.

[96583UP]

yay

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016 ... -primaries

[tommymtcom]

Ted Cruz winning is nothing to celebrate. The man has no soul.

[Simple Torture]

Congrats to Sanders for knocking 16 delegates off Clinton's nearly 600-delegate lead.