Democracy Deferred: End of 2020 Election Prediction Thread

[doug rr]

[wease]

so wease wins huh?

That's right.

[The Argonaut]

It ain't over yet! (By "it", I mean this contest, not the actual election. The actual election is definitely over)

[wease]

It ain't over yet! (By "it", I mean this contest, not the actual election. The actual election is definitely over)

It's over, Trump. I won.

[The Argonaut]

It ain't over yet! (By "it", I mean this contest, not the actual election. The actual election is definitely over)

It's over, Trump. I won.

At this point, you're the leading contender. But I like my chances (I'm the next guess at Dec 4)

[wease]

Give it up. Wease is the winner.

[elliseamos]

I concede...

that this is getting close.

[Bi_3]

Give it up. Wease is the winner.

Congratulations.

[Jorge]

What happens if Trump suddenly gives a concession speech sometime in December?

[The Argonaut]

"Trunp did not concede"

[Simple Torture]

I think I've seen enough to tentatively declare wease the winner based on Trump's "soft concession" yesterday, considering that he's given his team his blessing to begin the transition. I'll explain my reasoning below and lay out some potential wrenches in wease celebrating too early, but before you come at me remember that I basically declared myself God in the first post of this thread.

wease gets the W here because it certainly seems, barring anything surprising, that the transition to the Biden presidency will move smoothly from this point as it has in every other transition from one administration to another in American history. As many people predicted, Trump seems incapable of opening admitting defeat or conceding, but if his resistance to the inevitable continues to fade as it has for the past few days, it's fitting (editorializing here) for how many aspects of his presidency have gone so far--lots of bluster, insisting that he's right, and then very quietly accepting reality when things don't go his way, but hoping no one will notice. Congrats, wease! For now...

...because I think there are more than a couple of scenarios in which things could heat back up, which is why I think we can really only declare wease the "tentative" winner for now. Should any of these occur--and I'm sure there are other scenarios I might not be considering--we're going to tear the crown away from wease and give it to someone else. Sorry, not sorry, this is the way it goes. Trying to game it out a bit:

1. Trump could still concede - This is probably the least likely of any scenario, but if Trump were to acknowledge that he's exhausted all legal challenges, that there's no path forward for him, and he admits that he lost the election, then that will be the new day that marks the end of the election. This could be in a tweet, during a press conference, a rally, etc. Again, probably highly unlikely.

2. A Legal Challenge Somehow Gets Somewhere - I think we can all agree that the legal challenges the Trump team has put forward so far have been, in a word, laughable. Considering how Ol' Melting Rudy and the President's other lawyers have been shellacked in the rulings that have come across so far, I think it would be foolish to pick any one court case and mark that as the end of the election. Unless, that is, any of these court cases gains traction and actually makes it to a high court through the appeals process. If the Supreme Court were to actually hear arguments and have to make a ruling as to the election results, we'd have a new date to mark the end of the election. If there are some appeals and the SCOTUS decides not to hear the case, I wouldn't count that, as it's just another version of the flimsy cases we've seen so far.

3. Legislative Malarkey - Now that many states have certified their results and there's such a minuscule chance that a recount could change anything, the next step will be for state legislatures to officially name electors for the Electoral College. The President has openly called for legislatures to undermine the will of the people and name electors for Trump instead. If this were to happen, certainly it would end up in court--and if this were to happen, I'm sure we'd have to reset the clock. Same goes for if the certification of the results in Congress--if the GOP tries to pull anything outside of the normal process, we'll have to start thinking of the end of the election as sometime in January.

4. Biden Concedes - If the hypotheticals in the above scenarios break the President's way and Biden ends up conceding, then of course we'd have a new date for the end of the election. I consider this more likely than Trump actually conceding.

[The Argonaut]

I think I agree with you, ST. There's a good chance this thing is over and wease is the winner. But us December & January folks still have a slim chance if Trump gives a real concession speech eventually. Your other options aren't going to happen, though

[96583UP]

it certainly seems, barring anything surprising, that the transition to the Biden presidency will move smoothly from this point

why must you tempt fate

[96583UP]

oh

i guess i should have read the whole other 80% of the post

hm

[96583UP]

actually wait that's not what i thought it would be about

[96583UP]

i am so confused

wease wins

[wease]

i am so confused

wease wins

No confusion there at all.

[96583UP]

that was the only part i was certain about

that

and our mutual love of hearty breakfast

[wease]

that was the only part i was certain about

that

and our mutual love of hearty breakfast

The most important meal of the day

[washing machine]

Congrats to Achilles!