Red Mosquito

there is really only one candidate worth voting for, and he's an american goddamned hero.

So will the grown up Republicans stick with their party or what they've said would be better for the country, that Trump should never become president?

We're still a long way from November. I think people who think republican voters won't back trump are way off base. They may not feel right about it, but they've been waiting many years to vote against Hillary and no one, even Trump, will interfere with that. I think the turnout/margin among Hispanics and millennials decides this. It's Hillary's race to lose, and while I'd put my money on her, it's way too soon to know. We should all know by now that "Hillary" and "presumptive" do not belong in the same sentence until we have clear evidence for it.

Republicans will overwhelmingly vote for Trump and the vast majority won't even have to hold their nose while doing so.

Not that it really matters, but reports circulating that Kasich is dropping out.

Haha Trump is going to be president.

Kaius wrote:Haha Trump is going to be president.

I've been browsing the stores lately looking for sales on canned goods.

E.H. Ruddock wrote:

Kaius wrote:Haha Trump is going to be president.

I've been browsing the stores lately looking for sales on canned goods.

Tremendous

Hillary is awful on the campaign trail and is not liked at all by many. I think she'll beat Trump but it won't at all be the run away election some expect it to be. And a lot can happen in six months.
I wonder if any third party candidate will get any more attention/votes this year than is normally paid to them?

Biff Pocoroba wrote:Hillary is awful on the campaign trail and is not liked at all by many. I think she'll beat Trump but it won't at all be the run away election some expect it to be. And a lot can happen in six months.
I wonder if any third party candidate will get any more attention/votes this year than is normally paid to them?

Someone on 538 last night floated the idea of a popular conservative running as a third party candidate, winning enough electoral votes to deny anyone the majority, and then having the House vote in the third-party candidate instead of Trump. I think that's next to impossible, but it was a fun thought experiment for 5 minutes if you like playing with Electoral College calculators.

Holy cow, that would be amazing (in a nerdy politics way). The new House would make that decision, and who knows what that would look like after a three way race. Clinton could end up winning that.

The biggest problem I'd foresee would be: you could find a candidate who could probably win their home state in November (for example: you could have Cruz run for a third party, we'll call it the Zodiac Party for argument's sake, and he might take Texas), but they'd almost certainly--at the worst--just be siphoning votes for Trump in other states and hand Clinton swingable states like Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, and she'd end up crushing the general. You'd need to find a third-party candidate who could win multiple swing states and maybe a state or two that was blue (not red) in 2012.

our democracy is fucked

Simple Torture wrote:The biggest problem I'd foresee would be: you could find a candidate who could probably win their home state in November (for example: you could have Cruz run for a third party, we'll call it the Zodiac Party for argument's sake, and he might take Texas), but they'd almost certainly--at the worst--just be siphoning votes for Trump in other states and hand Clinton swingable states like Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, and she'd end up crushing the general. You'd need to find a third-party candidate who could win multiple swing states and maybe a state or two that was blue (not red) in 2012.

Ya know, if you had asked me a couple years ago I'd have said Scott Brown is your man.

cutuphalfdead wrote:

Simple Torture wrote:The biggest problem I'd foresee would be: you could find a candidate who could probably win their home state in November (for example: you could have Cruz run for a third party, we'll call it the Zodiac Party for argument's sake, and he might take Texas), but they'd almost certainly--at the worst--just be siphoning votes for Trump in other states and hand Clinton swingable states like Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, and she'd end up crushing the general. You'd need to find a third-party candidate who could win multiple swing states and maybe a state or two that was blue (not red) in 2012.

Ya know, if you had asked me a couple years ago I'd have said Scott Brown is your man.

"I drive a truck" Scott Brown might've had the guts to do it, and he could've swung New Hampshire and maybe Maine (which has some weird-ass electoral college rules). But could he have won a big honey pot state?

The Argonaut wrote:Holy cow, that would be amazing (in a nerdy politics way). The new House would make that decision, and who knows what that would look like after a three way race. Clinton could end up winning that.

Since two of the ways in this scenario are Republican/conservative it probably wouldn't look much different than it does now.

I think if we see a conservative 3rd party challenge it will be with the specific aim of giving Hillary the presidency and saving the House and Senate for the GOP.

I'm not sure who would want to be the sacrificial lamb in that case, though.

I'm so disappointed that we're not getting a contested convention. I really feel robbed.

The Argonaut wrote:Holy cow, that would be amazing (in a nerdy politics way). The new House would make that decision, and who knows what that would look like after a three way race. Clinton could end up winning that.

It goes by House state delegations, and that should overwhelmingly favor the GOP.

4/5 wrote:I think if we see a conservative 3rd party challenge it will be with the specific aim of giving Hillary the presidency and saving the House and Senate for the GOP.

I'm not sure who would want to be the sacrificial lamb in that case, though.

Exactly.

4/5 wrote:I'm so disappointed that we're not getting a contested convention. I really feel robbed.

A contested convention would have been amazing for the political intrigue, but a Trump coronation will be must-watch for the shitshow it inevitably will be.