Red Mosquito

I think I'd go with Kluber for AL Cy Young. Though I've been saying Felix for a while now.

They're very similar in ERA, K, K/9, and K/BB. But Kluber is leading the league in FIP and his FIP to ERA differential implies he's better than his ERA shows, while the other top pitchers in the AL are slightly worse than their ERA implies.

But Felix is 31 points better in ERA+.

Man, you can't go wrong with either of them.

cutuphalfdead wrote:But Felix is 31 points better in ERA+.

Man, you can't go wrong with either of them.

It could be a very close race. I'm liking Kluber's chances more and more. Flip a coin there.

What is Kluber's run support like, compared to Felix's?

The thing about Felix is the constant pressure he's under to be perfect. Giving up even one run leaves him a very real chance at a no decision or even a loss because our offense sucks so bad...especially when he is on the mound for some reason.

Yeah I'm not considering wins in the equation because they're a useless stat when judging a pitcher's individual performance.

Bammer wrote:What is Kluber's run support like, compared to Felix's?

The thing about Felix is the constant pressure he's under to be perfect. Giving up even one run leaves him a very real chance at a no decision or even a loss because our offense sucks so bad...especially when he is on the mound for some reason.

No idea. I do agree with you. I feel like Felix rarely gets run support.

Just looked it up and it's almost identical. Felix gets 4.38 per start and Kluber gets 4.45.

Cueto only gets 3.25 which is the 6th worst in baseball. Kershaw gets 4.88. With the season Cueto has had (27 out of 32 starts have been quality) that is phenomenal with that little run support IMHO. Almost any other year and he'd be a lock for the NL Cy.

Yeah if not for Kershaw the NL belongs to Cueto.

Curious, but why do people think that run support matters, assuming that you can throw W-L out the window?

Chris_H_2 wrote:Curious, but why do people think that run support matters, assuming that you can throw W-L out the window?

The Atlanta pitching staff would like to hug you

Run support only matters if you're trying to reconcile differing win totals.

BigRedLedbetter wrote:Just looked it up and it's almost identical. Felix gets 4.38 per start and Kluber gets 4.45.

Cueto only gets 3.25 which is the 6th worst in baseball. Kershaw gets 4.88. With the season Cueto has had (27 out of 32 starts have been quality) that is phenomenal with that little run support IMHO. Almost any other year and he'd be a lock for the NL Cy.

I'm surprised by that stat (4.38).

Felix must have either A) won a fair share of blowouts, or B) the Mariners end up playing a game where it's like 1-1 after 8 innings, Felix leaves the game, then we win 5-2 in extras or something. The memories that stick with me are watching Felix finish 8 innings and allow 0 or 1 run...meanwhile the M's haven't scored and he doesn't get the win.

Chris_H_2 wrote:Curious, but why do people think that run support matters, assuming that you can throw W-L out the window?

Mental pressure.

It's like a football team that knows they cannot allow any points at all, or else they'll lose, because for example Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback. (Had to do it).

The defense will press, and the mental pressure wears on you with no margin for error.

Bammer wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:Curious, but why do people think that run support matters, assuming that you can throw W-L out the window?

Mental pressure.

It's like a football team that knows they cannot allow any points at all, or else they'll lose, because for example Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback. (Had to do it).

The defense will press, and the mental pressure wears on you with no margin for error.

This and the pitching to the score argument are two things I feel are only used when people have already made up their minds about who they want to win awards.

Here are some pretty basic splits from this year with his career numbers in parentheses:

When he gets 0-2 runs of support, he has a 1.85 ERA (2.75).
When he gets 3-5 runs of support, he has a 1.81 ERA (3.07).
When he gets 6+ runs of support, her has a 2.71 ERA (3.53).

So he's pitched progressively worse as he's received more runs of support. That seems to go against the "harder to pitch when there's more pressure" theory, doesn't it? He does fit the "pitching to the score" narrative pretty nicely, though.

Bammer wrote:

BigRedLedbetter wrote:Just looked it up and it's almost identical. Felix gets 4.38 per start and Kluber gets 4.45.

Cueto only gets 3.25 which is the 6th worst in baseball. Kershaw gets 4.88. With the season Cueto has had (27 out of 32 starts have been quality) that is phenomenal with that little run support IMHO. Almost any other year and he'd be a lock for the NL Cy.

I'm surprised by that stat (4.38).

Felix must have either A) won a fair share of blowouts, or B) the Mariners end up playing a game where it's like 1-1 after 8 innings, Felix leaves the game, then we win 5-2 in extras or something. The memories that stick with me are watching Felix finish 8 innings and allow 0 or 1 run...meanwhile the M's haven't scored and he doesn't get the win.

I was surprised by this as well.

philpritchard wrote:Here are some pretty basic splits from this year with his career numbers in parentheses:

When he gets 0-2 runs of support, he has a 1.85 ERA (2.75).
When he gets 3-5 runs of support, he has a 1.81 ERA (3.07).
When he gets 6+ runs of support, her has a 2.71 ERA (3.53).

So he's pitched progressively worse as he's received more runs of support. That seems to go against the "harder to pitch when there's more pressure" theory, doesn't it? He does fit the "pitching to the score" narrative pretty nicely, though.

Sometimes when you have your ace on the mound you press at the plate. That happens sometimes. I feel like the Rangers have done that with Darvish the last 3 years.

Just looked it up and last year only 17 pitchers had worse run support in the AL than Darvish.

philpritchard wrote:

Bammer wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:Curious, but why do people think that run support matters, assuming that you can throw W-L out the window?

Mental pressure.

It's like a football team that knows they cannot allow any points at all, or else they'll lose, because for example Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback. (Had to do it).

The defense will press, and the mental pressure wears on you with no margin for error.

This and the pitching to the score argument are two things I feel are only used when people have already made up their minds about who they want to win awards.

Agreed. The mental pressure might be somewhat of a factor, but these are all professionals.

BigRedLedbetter wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Here are some pretty basic splits from this year with his career numbers in parentheses:

When he gets 0-2 runs of support, he has a 1.85 ERA (2.75).
When he gets 3-5 runs of support, he has a 1.81 ERA (3.07).
When he gets 6+ runs of support, her has a 2.71 ERA (3.53).

So he's pitched progressively worse as he's received more runs of support. That seems to go against the "harder to pitch when there's more pressure" theory, doesn't it? He does fit the "pitching to the score" narrative pretty nicely, though.

Sometimes when you have your ace on the mound you press at the plate. That happens sometimes. I feel like the Rangers have done that with Darvish the last 3 years.

Baseball is a game of numbers! There is no place for feelings!