Red Mosquito

cutuphalfdead wrote:

BigRedLedbetter wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Here are some pretty basic splits from this year with his career numbers in parentheses:

When he gets 0-2 runs of support, he has a 1.85 ERA (2.75).
When he gets 3-5 runs of support, he has a 1.81 ERA (3.07).
When he gets 6+ runs of support, her has a 2.71 ERA (3.53).

So he's pitched progressively worse as he's received more runs of support. That seems to go against the "harder to pitch when there's more pressure" theory, doesn't it? He does fit the "pitching to the score" narrative pretty nicely, though.

Sometimes when you have your ace on the mound you press at the plate. That happens sometimes. I feel like the Rangers have done that with Darvish the last 3 years.

Baseball is a game of numbers! There is no place for feelings!

Good point.

As a person who is good with numbers that is probably why I gravitate to baseball.

cutuphalfdead wrote:

BigRedLedbetter wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Here are some pretty basic splits from this year with his career numbers in parentheses:

When he gets 0-2 runs of support, he has a 1.85 ERA (2.75).
When he gets 3-5 runs of support, he has a 1.81 ERA (3.07).
When he gets 6+ runs of support, her has a 2.71 ERA (3.53).

So he's pitched progressively worse as he's received more runs of support. That seems to go against the "harder to pitch when there's more pressure" theory, doesn't it? He does fit the "pitching to the score" narrative pretty nicely, though.

Sometimes when you have your ace on the mound you press at the plate. That happens sometimes. I feel like the Rangers have done that with Darvish the last 3 years.

Baseball is a game of numbers! There is no place for feelings!

I think a lot of people underestimate (or don't like to admit) how much of baseball is randomness. Darvish having low run support makes sense because the Rangers have had a terrible offense this year. But we see something that doesn't make sense, like Francisco Liriano having terrible run support despite the Pirates having one of the best offenses, and we look for a way to explain it.

In these situations, we're talking about a 30 game sample. If you randomly pick 30 games out of any teams schedule and analyze the stats, there's a chance they'll look like the 1927 Yankees and there's a chance they'll look like the 2003 Tigers, no matter how good or bad they actually are. Sometimes things just line up poorly for a pitcher, and the answer to why is usually "randomness" instead of something abstract like batters pressing too much or not trusting the pitcher.

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

BigRedLedbetter wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Here are some pretty basic splits from this year with his career numbers in parentheses:

When he gets 0-2 runs of support, he has a 1.85 ERA (2.75).
When he gets 3-5 runs of support, he has a 1.81 ERA (3.07).
When he gets 6+ runs of support, her has a 2.71 ERA (3.53).

So he's pitched progressively worse as he's received more runs of support. That seems to go against the "harder to pitch when there's more pressure" theory, doesn't it? He does fit the "pitching to the score" narrative pretty nicely, though.

Sometimes when you have your ace on the mound you press at the plate. That happens sometimes. I feel like the Rangers have done that with Darvish the last 3 years.

Baseball is a game of numbers! There is no place for feelings!

I think a lot of people underestimate (or don't like to admit) how much of baseball is randomness. Darvish having low run support makes sense because the Rangers have had a terrible offense this year. But we see something that doesn't make sense, like Francisco Liriano having terrible run support despite the Pirates having one of the best offenses, and we look for a way to explain it.

In these situations, we're talking about a 30 game sample. If you randomly pick 30 games out of any teams schedule and analyze the stats, there's a chance they'll look like the 1927 Yankees and there's a chance they'll look like the 2003 Tigers, no matter how good or bad they actually are. Sometimes things just line up poorly for a pitcher, and the answer to why is usually "randomness" instead of something abstract like batters pressing too much or not trusting the pitcher.

So much this.

also, luck.

You have no idea how hard it is to live somewhere so hockey-centric that the answer to anyone's struggles at the plate, in the field or on the mound is "Just try harder!" The average Toronto sports fan can't wait until the Jays can get rid of Jose Reyes and bring John McDonald back. We love players with little talent and a lot of "heart". Trying to explain basic tenets of advanced stats to friends is unbelievably painful.

philpritchard wrote:You have no idea how hard it is to live somewhere so hockey-centric that the answer to anyone's struggles at the plate, in the field or on the mound is "Just try harder!" The average Toronto sports fan can't wait until the Jays can get rid of Jose Reyes and bring John McDonald back. We love players with little talent and a lot of "heart". Trying to explain basic tenets of advanced stats to friends is unbelievably painful.

That is by no means unique to Toronto

See:
David Eckstein
Brandon Inge
The Minnesota Twins


There is nothing more popular in this universe than Barely Replacement level gritty white infielders.

@SkitchP wrote:

philpritchard wrote:You have no idea how hard it is to live somewhere so hockey-centric that the answer to anyone's struggles at the plate, in the field or on the mound is "Just try harder!" The average Toronto sports fan can't wait until the Jays can get rid of Jose Reyes and bring John McDonald back. We love players with little talent and a lot of "heart". Trying to explain basic tenets of advanced stats to friends is unbelievably painful.

That is by no means unique to Toronto

See:
David Eckstein
Brandon Inge
The Minnesota Twins


There is nothing more popular in this universe than Barely Replacement level gritty white infielders.

That's true. I just feel like the hockey mentality in Canada makes the average baseball fan dumber here.

philpritchard wrote:

@SkitchP wrote:

philpritchard wrote:You have no idea how hard it is to live somewhere so hockey-centric that the answer to anyone's struggles at the plate, in the field or on the mound is "Just try harder!" The average Toronto sports fan can't wait until the Jays can get rid of Jose Reyes and bring John McDonald back. We love players with little talent and a lot of "heart". Trying to explain basic tenets of advanced stats to friends is unbelievably painful.

That is by no means unique to Toronto

See:
David Eckstein
Brandon Inge
The Minnesota Twins


There is nothing more popular in this universe than Barely Replacement level gritty white infielders.

That's true. I just feel like the hockey mentality in Canada makes the average baseball fan dumber here.

Nope. They're stupid everywhere.

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

BigRedLedbetter wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Here are some pretty basic splits from this year with his career numbers in parentheses:

When he gets 0-2 runs of support, he has a 1.85 ERA (2.75).
When he gets 3-5 runs of support, he has a 1.81 ERA (3.07).
When he gets 6+ runs of support, her has a 2.71 ERA (3.53).

So he's pitched progressively worse as he's received more runs of support. That seems to go against the "harder to pitch when there's more pressure" theory, doesn't it? He does fit the "pitching to the score" narrative pretty nicely, though.

Sometimes when you have your ace on the mound you press at the plate. That happens sometimes. I feel like the Rangers have done that with Darvish the last 3 years.

Baseball is a game of numbers! There is no place for feelings!

I think a lot of people underestimate (or don't like to admit) how much of baseball is randomness. Darvish having low run support makes sense because the Rangers have had a terrible offense this year. But we see something that doesn't make sense, like Francisco Liriano having terrible run support despite the Pirates having one of the best offenses, and we look for a way to explain it.

In these situations, we're talking about a 30 game sample. If you randomly pick 30 games out of any teams schedule and analyze the stats, there's a chance they'll look like the 1927 Yankees and there's a chance they'll look like the 2003 Tigers, no matter how good or bad they actually are. Sometimes things just line up poorly for a pitcher, and the answer to why is usually "randomness" instead of something abstract like batters pressing too much or not trusting the pitcher.

Not to say its not random... But how much do managers give players needed days off when their aces pitch, since they aren't needed as much - so they get less run support? Are there stats that track this?

cutuphalfdead wrote:

BigRedLedbetter wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Here are some pretty basic splits from this year with his career numbers in parentheses:

When he gets 0-2 runs of support, he has a 1.85 ERA (2.75).
When he gets 3-5 runs of support, he has a 1.81 ERA (3.07).
When he gets 6+ runs of support, her has a 2.71 ERA (3.53).

So he's pitched progressively worse as he's received more runs of support. That seems to go against the "harder to pitch when there's more pressure" theory, doesn't it? He does fit the "pitching to the score" narrative pretty nicely, though.

Sometimes when you have your ace on the mound you press at the plate. That happens sometimes. I feel like the Rangers have done that with Darvish the last 3 years.

Baseball is a game of numbers! There is no place for feelings!

Oh, chud.

numbers wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

BigRedLedbetter wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Here are some pretty basic splits from this year with his career numbers in parentheses:

When he gets 0-2 runs of support, he has a 1.85 ERA (2.75).
When he gets 3-5 runs of support, he has a 1.81 ERA (3.07).
When he gets 6+ runs of support, her has a 2.71 ERA (3.53).

So he's pitched progressively worse as he's received more runs of support. That seems to go against the "harder to pitch when there's more pressure" theory, doesn't it? He does fit the "pitching to the score" narrative pretty nicely, though.

Sometimes when you have your ace on the mound you press at the plate. That happens sometimes. I feel like the Rangers have done that with Darvish the last 3 years.

Baseball is a game of numbers! There is no place for feelings!

Oh, chud.

@SkitchP wrote:

philpritchard wrote:You have no idea how hard it is to live somewhere so hockey-centric that the answer to anyone's struggles at the plate, in the field or on the mound is "Just try harder!" The average Toronto sports fan can't wait until the Jays can get rid of Jose Reyes and bring John McDonald back. We love players with little talent and a lot of "heart". Trying to explain basic tenets of advanced stats to friends is unbelievably painful.

That is by no means unique to Toronto

See:
David Eckstein
Brandon Inge
The Minnesota Twins


There is nothing more popular in this universe than Barely Replacement level gritty white infielders.

Jeff Frye!!

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

BigRedLedbetter wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Here are some pretty basic splits from this year with his career numbers in parentheses:

When he gets 0-2 runs of support, he has a 1.85 ERA (2.75).
When he gets 3-5 runs of support, he has a 1.81 ERA (3.07).
When he gets 6+ runs of support, her has a 2.71 ERA (3.53).

So he's pitched progressively worse as he's received more runs of support. That seems to go against the "harder to pitch when there's more pressure" theory, doesn't it? He does fit the "pitching to the score" narrative pretty nicely, though.

Sometimes when you have your ace on the mound you press at the plate. That happens sometimes. I feel like the Rangers have done that with Darvish the last 3 years.

Baseball is a game of numbers! There is no place for feelings!

I think a lot of people underestimate (or don't like to admit) how much of baseball is randomness. Darvish having low run support makes sense because the Rangers have had a terrible offense this year. But we see something that doesn't make sense, like Francisco Liriano having terrible run support despite the Pirates having one of the best offenses, and we look for a way to explain it.

In these situations, we're talking about a 30 game sample. If you randomly pick 30 games out of any teams schedule and analyze the stats, there's a chance they'll look like the 1927 Yankees and there's a chance they'll look like the 2003 Tigers, no matter how good or bad they actually are. Sometimes things just line up poorly for a pitcher, and the answer to why is usually "randomness" instead of something abstract like batters pressing too much or not trusting the pitcher.

I agree with most of what you are saying but that being said last year we went 91-71 and scored little runs for Yu. Would have won the Cy with even average run support.

I love how Murder's Row is part of pop culture lexicon. Anything to talk about baseball.

I'd love it if the Rangers sign Liriano in the offseason.

BigRedLedbetter wrote:

@SkitchP wrote:

philpritchard wrote:You have no idea how hard it is to live somewhere so hockey-centric that the answer to anyone's struggles at the plate, in the field or on the mound is "Just try harder!" The average Toronto sports fan can't wait until the Jays can get rid of Jose Reyes and bring John McDonald back. We love players with little talent and a lot of "heart". Trying to explain basic tenets of advanced stats to friends is unbelievably painful.

That is by no means unique to Toronto

See:
David Eckstein
Brandon Inge
The Minnesota Twins


There is nothing more popular in this universe than Barely Replacement level gritty white infielders.

Jeff Frye!!

Loved Jeff Frye.

So here's the deal with Felix.

I am surprised at the stats uncovered in the previous page of this thread.

Those games where we lose 2-1 in extra innings piss me off so much that they're all I remember. The 6-3 victories don't stand out as much.

I also do think that Seattle's hitters know they have let him down so many times in the past...seriously he throws 8 scoreless innings and we manage to lose the game...that they are pressing when he takes the mound.


Fucking M's ownership. More money than they know what to do with. Buy some more goddamn bats.

Talk about running out of gas. Don't look at Felix's line today.

Bammer wrote:Those games where we lose 2-1 in extra innings piss me off so much that they're all I remember. The 6-3 victories don't stand out as much.

This is the exact reason the eye test and "I watched the games so I know" are never as accurate as people want to believe.

Here's a stat to piss you off: Felix is 1-0 with three no decisions this year in games where he allows 0 runs.

Kluber has pitched all year in front of the worst defense in all of baseball.

Bammer wrote:Talk about running out of gas. Don't look at Felix's line today.

I looked at it. I enjoyed it.

5.23 career ERA against the Jays in 13 starts. Weird.

philpritchard wrote:

Bammer wrote:Talk about running out of gas. Don't look at Felix's line today.

I looked at it. I enjoyed it.

5.23 career ERA against the Jays in 13 starts. Weird.

Even weirder....

In 42 career starts against the Rangers Felix is 12-21 (22.8% of his career losses) with a 4.01 ERA. Considering half of those Rangers teams were under .500 that's interesting. Nothing against Felix....he is great.