Red Mosquito

Higgs wrote:Moot point, but do you really think the US would have voted for Michelle Obama over Trump in this election? Genuinely interested in my RM US friends take on this as I can't see how any woman will become President in my lifetime at this stage.

Not a chance.

4/5 wrote:....but he doesn't set interest rates.

You already forget his last term, I see.

epilogue wrote:

Higgs wrote:Moot point, but do you really think the US would have voted for Michelle Obama over Trump in this election? Genuinely interested in my RM US friends take on this as I can't see how any woman will become President in my lifetime at this stage.

Not a chance.

Agreed

Would Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson have beaten him?

If there's literally no Democrat who could have beaten a 34 time convicted felon, etc., etc., doesn't that suggest the party is wildly out of step with the electorate and major inward soul-searching is necessary?

epilogue wrote:

4/5 wrote:....but he doesn't set interest rates.

You already forget his last term, I see.

That he wanted to fire the Fed Chairman when the Fed raised rates? Or something else?

it wasn't that harris was black that led to her loss.

it wasn't that harris was a woman that led to her loss.

it was that harris was biden's vice president that led to her loss.

Chris_H_2 wrote:it wasn't that harris was black that led to her loss.

it wasn't that harris was a woman that led to her loss.

it was that harris was biden's vice president that led to her loss.

I don’t think you can totally discount your first two points. No, they're not the ONLY reasons, but I do think they were somewhat part of the reason.

wease wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:it wasn't that harris was black that led to her loss.

it wasn't that harris was a woman that led to her loss.

it was that harris was biden's vice president that led to her loss.

I don’t think you can totally discount your first two points. No, they're not the ONLY reasons, but I do think they were somewhat part of the reason.

you're always going to have some voters that won't vote for a woman, or a black candidate. but by and large, democrats from all walks up and down the ticket, from the presidency to county road commissioners, in safely blue strongholds lost (some convincingly). meantime, there were also black, women candidates that won in districts that harris struggled or failed to carry.

4/5 wrote:

epilogue wrote:

4/5 wrote:....but he doesn't set interest rates.

You already forget his last term, I see.

That he wanted to fire the Fed Chairman when the Fed raised rates? Or something else?

Wasn't that solely because it was coming up to the 2020 election though? So he thought it made him look bad to the voters. I don't think he gave much of a fuck other than that. Or am I misremembering?

Farmer John wrote:Would Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson have beaten him?

I think The People's Elbow would defeat most opponents.

Chris_H_2 wrote:

wease wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:it wasn't that harris was black that led to her loss.

it wasn't that harris was a woman that led to her loss.

it was that harris was biden's vice president that led to her loss.

I don’t think you can totally discount your first two points. No, they're not the ONLY reasons, but I do think they were somewhat part of the reason.

you're always going to have some voters that won't vote for a woman, or a black candidate. but by and large, democrats from all walks up and down the ticket, from the presidency to county road commissioners, in safely blue strongholds lost (some convincingly). meantime, there were also black, women candidates that won in districts that harris struggled or failed to carry.

I wonder how those (very few) black women would have done if their opponents had have reposted blowjob jokes about them on social media that the mainstream media made sure everyone saw.

Sadly you can argue it all you want (and I don't doubt you are in the main correct) but from the outside looking in it really really looks as if the way the campaigns played out was at least in part because Trump allowed those of his supporters who were already mysogistic to feel good about themselves for being that way.

I don't let the fact that Harris was black was a factor at all. But I've worked for decades in an industry dominated by women and seen so many men wash out because they couldn't handle a female supervisor. you will never convince me that there was a huge proportion of men that couldn't stomach voting for a woman.

I'm sure the election was base largely on people blaming Biden for the economy, but we're talking about 1 to 4 percentage points.

Yep, I should have removed the word "black" from my post. I misread 4/5's post I quoted. I was only talking misogyny here.

Joe and the Hoe gotta go.

B wrote:you will never convince me that there was a huge proportion of men that couldn't stomach voting for a woman.

you know what didn't help? harris completely refusing to engage them. she took for granted that they fall into one of four camps: (1) republicans who will never vote for her; (2) trump supporters who will never vote for her; (3) democrats that she just assumed would vote for her; and (4) anti-trumpers that she just assumed would vote for her. so there was very little to no outreach. what her campaign seemed to fail to grasp is that there was more nuance to latter two categories rather than a simple, clean, demarcated break from the first two categories.

stuff like refusing the invitation to go on joe rogan's podcast that is majority white dudes just proves that this demographic wasn't prioritized.

y'all know that there's a big difference between mortgage rates and the funds rate that the fed sets, right?

tragabigzanda wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:y'all know that there's a big difference between mortgage rates and the funds rate that the fed sets, right?

I generally think of Treasury rates as the "one ring to rule them all."

Trump's going to drive massive M&A activity, give big tax breaks for R&D, plus spur more luxury real estate construction and purchase of existing investment real estate by the 1%. And I just assume that any Republican administration means an overall increase in defense spending...

So the Treasury bond yields adjust to reflect these shifts, then the Fed responds accordingly.

Or am I thinking about this wrong? Please clarify!

To clarify: you’re thinking about this wrong

Higgs wrote:

4/5 wrote:

epilogue wrote:

4/5 wrote:....but he doesn't set interest rates.

You already forget his last term, I see.

That he wanted to fire the Fed Chairman when the Fed raised rates? Or something else?

Wasn't that solely because it was coming up to the 2020 election though? So he thought it made him look bad to the voters. I don't think he gave much of a fuck other than that. Or am I misremembering?

Nah, this was much earlier. Without looking, it was about 2018. We had been at 0-0.25% FFR since 2008 (ZIRP!) and the economy was strong so The Fed began gradually raising rates. They never got particularly high, about 2.5%ish and then in March 2020 the Fed brought them back down to 0.

Oh, OK. I just saw that the US markets had the best post election day ever with all 3 major indexes hitting all time highs. And Tesla stock jumped 15%. Ngl, pretty impressive.

Now for trickle down economics to get to work!