Red Mosquito

Anders wrote:I do not have a «neoliberal assessment of geopolitics», so please stop writing that I do.

You do though

Anders wrote:

Jorge wrote:Not to derail the conversation about Ukraine, just want to lend support to LV's point that US-led regime change operations have often produced disastrous outcomes. Skepticism about US interventionism in the region is historically grounded!

I believe almost any Iranian you meet will be happy about this intervention, and would be delighted if the regime falls. Doubt it can get any worse than it was in this case.

I'm happy they're happy, but the "it can't get worse" framing just seems myopic if you look at history. Iraq in 2003, Libya in 2011. Hated regimes fell, people celebrated, a big chunk of the world celebrated, but the aftermath was absolutely disastrous. We see this beyond the Middle East. US-backed regime changes in Guatemala, Chile, Brazil, all justified at the time as "necessary", led to decades of repression and misery. Many of my Venezuelan brothers and sisters similarly celebrated Maduro's removal/kidnapping. Does that make the US's actions a net positive? The best tool we have to figure out where things are going is history, and history points a certain direction.

I guess that shooting in Austin could be considered a terrorist attack, no? It would be nice if these wackos went after politicians instead of random civilians.

Jorge wrote:

Anders wrote:

Jorge wrote:Not to derail the conversation about Ukraine, just want to lend support to LV's point that US-led regime change operations have often produced disastrous outcomes. Skepticism about US interventionism in the region is historically grounded!

I believe almost any Iranian you meet will be happy about this intervention, and would be delighted if the regime falls. Doubt it can get any worse than it was in this case.

I'm happy they're happy, but the "it can't get worse" framing just seems myopic if you look at history. Iraq in 2003, Libya in 2011. Hated regimes fell, people celebrated, a big chunk of the world celebrated, but the aftermath was absolutely disastrous. We see this beyond the Middle East. US-backed regime changes in Guatemala, Chile, Brazil, all justified at the time as "necessary", led to decades of repression and misery. Many of my Venezuelan brothers and sisters similarly celebrated Maduro's removal/kidnapping. Does that make the US's actions a net positive? The best tool we have to figure out where things are going is history, and history points a certain direction.

Iran is a much more stable country than Libya, historically, culturally and in most other factors. Can’t see the two going the same way.

Libya was / is a disaster, but already had a civil war, long before NATO bombed the regime there. I believe it was headed for disaster no matter what.

Iraq had a dictator with millions of lives on his conscience. He had a huge part in making the country a cesspool of criminal gangs. It probably looked more stable from the outside, but for many it was hell on earth to live in. Thankfully they are doing better now: https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/01/1166718

They call it a regime change war, but it's actually worse than that. I think their main goal is to reduce Iran to a lawless civil wartorn region for a few years, so that Israel can expand and consolidate its power.

And does anyone under the age of 60 seriously think they had a nuke program? In my bubble, it's a given that this was just a baseless pretense to justify aggression.

The Iron Dome and Patriot missile systems might be exposed as bullshit right now. Spending tens of millions to shoot down a $40000 missile or a cheap drone is not a great strategy.

Iran is a highly educated society with more than 90 million people. Higly unlikely it will turn into a lawless region.

BurtReynolds wrote:The Iron Dome and Patriot missile systems might be exposed as bullshit right now. Spending tens of millions to shoot down a $40000 missile or a cheap drone is not a great strategy.

Read that used a laser for the first time yesterday, to stop a Hezbollah rocket.

Anders wrote:Iran is a highly educated society with more than 90 million people. Higly unlikely it will turn into a lawless region.

The highly educated typically leave warzones and cratered economies as soon as possible. Not that being highly educated has ever prevented civil war anyway.

Anders wrote:

VinylGuy wrote:yeah team LV, in every opinion he had here.

We clearly live in an insane Putin-loving world.

who said anything bout putin?

BurtReynolds wrote:They call it a regime change war, but it's actually worse than that. I think their main goal is to reduce Iran to a lawless civil wartorn region for a few years, so that Israel can expand and consolidate its power.

And does anyone under the age of 60 seriously think they had a nuke program? In my bubble, it's a given that this was just a baseless pretense to justify aggression.

ya think???

Anders wrote:

tweet feels sus

haha just read the comments

I believe in the Iranian people, and that a majority of them hate the regime they live under.

VinylGuy wrote:

Anders wrote:

VinylGuy wrote:yeah team LV, in every opinion he had here.

We clearly live in an insane Putin-loving world.

who said anything bout putin?

We were talking about Ukraine. Putin is behind the war in Ukraine.

BurtReynolds wrote:

Anders wrote:Iran is a highly educated society with more than 90 million people. Higly unlikely it will turn into a lawless region.

The highly educated typically leave warzones and cratered economies as soon as possible. Not that being highly educated has ever prevented civil war anyway.

More than 50% of the population has higher education, as many women as men. Nearly everyone is literate. This matters. You can’t compare it to somewhere vastly different.