bitcoin, the blockchain, and cryptocurrency

[96583UP]

this computer technology thing sounds like it might really take off

[BurtReynolds]

me right now:

[BurtReynolds]

[Jammer XCI]

Does anyone want to sell me some drugs in this topic?

[BurtReynolds]

Threatening 8000$ now... This can't keep up. I already sold thinking it will tank by the end of the year, but it just keeps rising! Damnit

[BurtReynolds]

[BurtReynolds]

[BurtReynolds]

Bubble or not, I think one of the greatest wealth transfers in history is taking place, and the average Joe isn't noticing.

[96583UP]

it just seems like the kind of thing since its not backed by the full faith and credit of a central bank that if there is a sudden loss of faith it could just tank to zero in a day

[96583UP]

like, it gets explicitly linked to terrorist financing

[BurtReynolds]

it just seems like the kind of thing since its not backed by the full faith and credit of a central bank that if there is a sudden loss of faith it could just tank to zero in a day

Wouldn't that happen with fiat as well? There seems to be less and less faith in central banks anyway.

like, it gets explicitly linked to terrorist financing

I think that narrative is starting to crumble now that establishment money is pouring in.

[BurtReynolds]

Some are saying it might correct by 50% soon (which wouldn't even be that crazy in crypto land). I don't think it will hit 10k. There is a ton of people planning to cash out just before. The sell wall is huge. We'll see.

[BurtReynolds]

December is going to be very interesting:

- CME Group will be offering futures on bitcoin. Word is a lot of big money will short the market.

- coinbase (the main entry point for Americans) just added over a hundred thousand accounts on Friday alone. Probably more tomorrow. Probably a lot of thanksgiving conversations about it.

-it now has more accounts than Charles Schwabb.

-China changed its mind about banning ICOs, so that train will keep rolling for awhile.

[96583UP]

it just seems like the kind of thing since its not backed by the full faith and credit of a central bank that if there is a sudden loss of faith it could just tank to zero in a day

Wouldn't that happen with fiat as well? There seems to be less and less faith in central banks anyway.

it could, but there are economic levers that can slow the bleeding to make fiat currencies less volatile and help it recover

but if say, the US Gov't came out and said that it is the primary means for international wealth transfer between cells of ISIS, and attempts to curtail access; and other developed nations follow suit due to AML concerns, there could be a dramatic run to the exits as no one wants to be left holding an illiquid imaginary thing

with a fiat currency usually you get a natural counter-lever that when it depreciates it can attract new flows into the country (surge in export demand, increased foreign investments) because the country at least has tangible "things" that have basic book value (land, labor, whole companies) that can now be purchased using foreign dollars at significant discounts

bitcoin doesn't have any liquidation value "things" ... if it gets red-flagged it can turn into North Korea overnight and not sure how it crawls out of that

Spoiler: show

this is all just a justification to make me feel better for entirely missing the boat

like, it gets explicitly linked to terrorist financing

I think that narrative is starting to crumble now that establishment money is pouring in.

a lot of establishment money went pouring in to Mortgage Backed Securities in the early 2000's too ... doesn't mean the thing can't sink hard. companies and investors can start feeling like they need to get in on the party because everyone else is, or they will looks uncompetitive or get left behind ... shareholders could even out a board for failing to get into it or something bc they feel like they are missing a market ... then eventually shit hits the fan and all the sudden you have to spend 10 years cleaning up illiquid dogshit and fending off various lawsuits

[96583UP]

December is going to be very interesting:

- CME Group will be offering futures on bitcoin. Word is a lot of big money will short the market.

- coinbase (the main entry point for Americans) just added over a hundred thousand accounts on Friday alone. Probably more tomorrow. Probably a lot of thanksgiving conversations about it.

-it now has more accounts than Charles Schwabb.

-China changed its mind about banning ICOs, so that train will keep rolling for awhile.

- adding the mechanism to short can lead it to the point of no return during a period of market stress (see: Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, 2008)

- retail investors are notoriously 'dumb money' and their staggering inflows could be taken as a bearish indicator (see: tech bubble)

- Charles Schwab is a child pornographer

- China can def provide flows in but can also brutally cause flows out. If their domestic stock market is any example, you'll just want to make sure you sell when there are still buyers on the other side because it can fall hard and fast

this probably will continue to go up - and a lot - but i just wonder if its trajectory might end up looking more like a penny stock pump and dump when it's all said and done

[BurtReynolds]

it just seems like the kind of thing since its not backed by the full faith and credit of a central bank that if there is a sudden loss of faith it could just tank to zero in a day

Wouldn't that happen with fiat as well? There seems to be less and less faith in central banks anyway.

it could, but there are economic levers that can slow the bleeding to make fiat currencies less volatile and help it recover

but if say, the US Gov't came out and said that it is the primary means for international wealth transfer between cells of ISIS, and attempts to curtail access; and other developed nations follow suit due to AML concerns, there could be a dramatic run to the exits as no one wants to be left holding an illiquid imaginary thing

with a fiat currency usually you get a natural counter-lever that when it depreciates it can attract new flows into the country (surge in export demand, increased foreign investments) because the country at least has tangible "things" that have basic book value (land, labor, whole companies) that can now be purchased using foreign dollars at significant discounts

bitcoin doesn't have any liquidation value "things" ... if it gets red-flagged it can turn into North Korea overnight and not sure how it crawls out of that

Spoiler: show

this is all just a justification to make me feel better for entirely missing the boat

They might have broken the levers after years of abuse. The whole point of this tech is that it can't be manipulated by a central authority, so that might replace the banks as a point of faith. It would be more volatile, but at least you'd know exactly what it's worth.

I dunno, though.
I think governments could still greatly damage it (though they couldn't kill it completely). And they might still try. But what's odd is that they haven't really tried, and so far many are promoting crypto. I'm not sure what the point of no return is for them to reverse course. Right now it looks like nations aren't acting together on much of anything, so they might not be able to act together to bring it down (which would fail anyway IMO).

like, it gets explicitly linked to terrorist financing

I think that narrative is starting to crumble now that establishment money is pouring in.

a lot of establishment money went pouring in to Mortgage Backed Securities in the early 2000's too ... doesn't mean the thing can't sink hard. companies and investors can start feeling like they need to get in on the party because everyone else is, or they will looks uncompetitive or get left behind ... shareholders could even out a board for failing to get into it or something bc they feel like they are missing a market ... then eventually shit hits the fan and all the sudden you have to spend 10 years cleaning up illiquid dogshit and fending off various lawsuits

Sure but in the meantime it's all hookers and cocaine!

The first use case of the internet was porn, followed closely by drugs and stealing shit, and no one cared about that, so I doubt threats about criminals using it will dissuade many people here either.

[BurtReynolds]

this probably will continue to go up - and a lot - but i just wonder if its trajectory might end up looking more like a penny stock pump and dump when it's all said and done

There's gotta be a steep dive sooner or later, but I don't know if anything can replace bitcoin as "The" coin. The market as a whole will be ok. Unless this whole blockchain thing just doesn't work.

Right now it doesn't.

[simple schoolboy]

it just seems like the kind of thing since its not backed by the full faith and credit of a central bank that if there is a sudden loss of faith it could just tank to zero in a day

Says the Fiat-Cuck*.

*just looking for an opening

There's a guy at work who claims to have a friend that big into this sort of thing. He of course, only provides forecasts with hand gestures and timelines in months.

But more seriously, is China likely to provide a relatively safe return on investment domestically? If so, this discussion goes well beyond bitcoin and further into how fucked the US is.

[BurtReynolds]

China is too schizo to be trusted for much investment, but decentralized exchanges and other projects will probably make their government powerless to stop anything. Southeast Asia and Korea are a different story. They are wild about crypto so far.

I was looking at one called Substratum that got nice bounce last week. It will create decentralized webhosting and maybe cloud storage, making censorship like The Great Firewall of China useless, not to mention taking power away from GoDaddy or Google. No need for a VPN anymore.

[E.H. Ruddock]

If I don't get my Scurry 2 book soon, I'm demanding a refund in Bitcoin.