Red Mosquito

tommy wrote:

spike wrote:The Rock is starting to appear all over... WWE and now College Gameday. Does he have a movie coming out or is this the ramp up to POTUS nominee?

John Cena has started showing up on WWE as well. I think they're just bored because of the strike.

Democrats just scored a big win in an election on Tuesday: Democrat Hal Rafter defeated Republican James Guzofski 56 percent to 44 percent in a special election to fill a Republican-held seat in the New Hampshire state House. Assuming Democrats win another special election in November in a solidly blue seat, Rafter’s win means the New Hampshire state House will be tied at 198 Republicans and 198 Democrats (with two independents and two seats still vacant). On paper, that will end full Republican control of New Hampshire state government. (In practice, whoever controls the House could change by the day depending on legislator absences.)

It’s also the latest example of Democrats outperforming in a special election, a trend that could be a harbinger of a very good year for Democrats in 2024. This New Hampshire district is 6 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole, according to a weighted average of the 2020 and 2016 presidential results in the district.* Yet Rafter won by 12 points — an 18-point Democratic overperformance above their partisan baseline.

“Hang on,” you might be saying. “Only 2,800 people voted in this election.” (New Hampshire House districts are really tiny.) “Does that really mean anything?” On its own, no — any single special election can be influenced by any number of factors, including candidate quality or parochial issues. But Democrats have been posting special-election overperformances of that magnitude all year long, in all kinds of districts. And on average, they have won by margins 11 points higher than the weighted relative partisanship of their districts.

That’s more than just an impressive streak — it’s a potential sign of a Democratic wave election in 2024. In each of the past three election cycles, a party’s average overperformance in all special elections in a given cycle has been a close match for the eventual House popular vote in the eventual general election — albeit a couple of points better for Democrats.

McParadigm wrote:

Democrats just scored a big win in an election on Tuesday: Democrat Hal Rafter defeated Republican James Guzofski 56 percent to 44 percent in a special election to fill a Republican-held seat in the New Hampshire state House. Assuming Democrats win another special election in November in a solidly blue seat, Rafter’s win means the New Hampshire state House will be tied at 198 Republicans and 198 Democrats (with two independents and two seats still vacant). On paper, that will end full Republican control of New Hampshire state government. (In practice, whoever controls the House could change by the day depending on legislator absences.)

Scoop: Biden deploys Newsom to GOP debate

Joe Biden's re-election campaign is deploying California Gov. Gavin Newsom to the second Republican presidential debate next week in Simi Valley, Calif., Biden campaign advisers tell Axios.

Why it matters: It's the latest example of Biden's increasingly warm relationship with Newsom after earlier tensions between the two — and comes as the California governor continues to build his national profile.

Bi_3 wrote:Dismal polling showing Biden now losing to Trump by big numbers, but this seems off.

As McP pointed out local elections are trending blue in GA, NC, and PA.

96583UP wrote:maybe Harris doesnt want to be VP again

and they will tap newsom

Bi_3 wrote:There is no amount of adrenochrome that will fix Biden's brain in time for debates and his VP has transformed into a unlikable cackling imbecile. There must be someone who has national name recognition because "is not Trump" will only get you to about 40% this time through and there is no pandemic/BLM rioting to leverage. If not Gavin "Hans Gruber" Newsome (plus Whitmer as VP), then who? AOC? 2x loser Stacy Abrams?

Electromatic wrote:

Bi_3 wrote:There is no amount of adrenochrome that will fix Biden's brain in time for debates and his VP has transformed into a unlikable cackling imbecile. There must be someone who has national name recognition because "is not Trump" will only get you to about 40% this time through and there is no pandemic/BLM rioting to leverage. If not Gavin "Hans Gruber" Newsome (plus Whitmer as VP), then who? AOC? 2x loser Stacy Abrams?

How do you feel about Ned Lamont or Jared Polis?