Election 2020

[Let's all laugh at Rangers]

Hot take: I think Biden winning would be disastrous, and would mean we have to keep playing out this farce for many more years. There will always be more Trumps to serve as bogeyman, and always more Bidens to feed off of the terrified voters.

Four more years of Trump would do the democrats some good, much the same way that 8 years of Obama and the failures of McCain and Romney did for Republican voters, who successfully revolted against party leaders. Dem voters should admire and be inspired by this incredible feat, but partisanship blinds them.

I was hoping the dems were already there with Bernie, but this year has proved that the dems haven't reached their breaking point yet. They're all too afraid of the other guy to vote for what they really believe in.

In that case people need to vote for someone else. There's a strong message in "we lost because we lost votes to...".

Please don't do this. Please vote for Biden. Please.

I do agree, much as I have my reservations. Just saying the worst people can do is not vote. The most wasted vote is the stay at home.

[Rob]

Trump down with Boomers in MI. Also, Biden is up 4 pts in Florida in this poll. I know polling isn't that reliable 6 months out, but considering we're in a pandemic and most other world leaders are seeing big approval boosts, these are really bad numbers for Mr. Trump. The Fox News poll is a very good one.

[4/5]

This election is as close as it could get to just being a referendum on Trump. The name of the applesauce-brained Democrat on the ticket matters about as little as possible.

[wease]

This election is as close as it could get to just being a referendum on Trump. The name of the applesauce-brained Democrat on the ticket matters about as little as possible.

That's what we thought last time.

[Bi_3]

This election is as close as it could get to just being a referendum on Trump. The name of the applesauce-brained Democrat on the ticket matters about as little as possible.

That's what we thought last time.

Yes, but now we have roughly four years of objective evidence.

[Hatfield]

This election is as close as it could get to just being a referendum on Trump. The name of the applesauce-brained Democrat on the ticket matters about as little as possible.

That's what we thought last time.

It couldn't have been a referendum on Trump last time. He hadn't held office yet.

2018 was a referendum on Trump and that didn't work out well for the Republicans.

[Mickey]

But historically it wouldn't have worked out well for Republicans anyways, and it wasn't even close to the biggest midterm loss in the last hundred years. So again, I'd be really careful about getting overconfident based on 2018.

In any case, I think wease's point is that last time, we thought it didn't matter who ran against Trump. And I agree--the idea that it doesn't matter if it's Biden or Harris or Sanders or Warren seems like wishful thinking invoked by Dem voters who know they're running a weak, vulnerable candidate.

[digster]

I think an interesting thought would be to ask what state can Trump conceivably pick up that he lost in 2016? The number of states Biden could potentially flip is pretty wide, including MI, PA, WI in the Rust Belt, FL and AZ, and possibly a few others. I doubt he'd win all or even most of these states, but they're conceivable, and if he wins a few of them than Trump would have to win places he didn't win before. Where can he potentially do that?

[elliseamos]

I think an interesting thought would be to ask what state can Trump conceivably pick up that he lost in 2016? The number of states Biden could potentially flip is pretty wide, including MI, PA, WI in the Rust Belt, FL and AZ, and possibly a few others. I doubt he'd win all or even most of these states, but they're conceivable, and if he wins a few of them than Trump would have to win places he didn't win before. Where can he potentially do that?

Guam likes billionaires.

[Simple Torture]

I think an interesting thought would be to ask what state can Trump conceivably pick up that he lost in 2016? The number of states Biden could potentially flip is pretty wide, including MI, PA, WI in the Rust Belt, FL and AZ, and possibly a few others. I doubt he'd win all or even most of these states, but they're conceivable, and if he wins a few of them than Trump would have to win places he didn't win before. Where can he potentially do that?

Based on how much attention he's given it lately, it seems like Trump's team thinks he can flip Virginia.

[Mickey]

I think an interesting thought would be to ask what state can Trump conceivably pick up that he lost in 2016? The number of states Biden could potentially flip is pretty wide, including MI, PA, WI in the Rust Belt, FL and AZ, and possibly a few others. I doubt he'd win all or even most of these states, but they're conceivable, and if he wins a few of them than Trump would have to win places he didn't win before. Where can he potentially do that?

Minnesota. Maine. New Hampshire. Possibly Colorado. All four within 5 points in 2016. Minnesota probably the only one that's really up for grabs, but, weirder things could happen. Virginia could be interesting. Nevada, and New Mexico were also close but I see those trending away from Trump.

[E.H. Ruddock]

Rural white Virginia is really pissed off at their governor right now

[Mickey]

Rural white Virginia is really pissed off at their governor right now

It's hard to imagine Virginia not being determined by the DC suburbs, and yet.

[digster]

I think a lot of things could happen, but I'm not sure how comfortable I'd be calling them truly realistic. VA certainly could happen for Trump, but his polling has been underwater as far as I can tell practically since he stepped into office, and the state hasn't gone red in a presidential election since 2004. The last time Minnesota went red on that level was 1972.

To put it another way, for Trump to pick up states that he didn't win last time, we're talking about him flipping states that haven't gone red on a presidential election in some cases for decades moving into his corner. Biden has five states alone where he would just have to flip them back from '16 to '12. Granted, Trump did this in 2016 in the Rust Belt, and I guess we'll have to see whether four years into his presidency, those states who were unwilling to go for him then like enough of what they've seen to flip their support now. I will fully admit I have nothing to back this up, but I'm just a bit skeptical on that point.

[McParadigm]

Rural white Virginia is really pissed off at their governor right now

It’s almost like this was the point

[Chris_H_2]

i would be shocked if trump lost florida, despite that poll referenced above

[Mickey]

i would be shocked if trump lost florida, despite that poll referenced above

As someone who lived in Florida for 18 years and still has family there, I 100% agree. I also don't think he's going to lose PA.

[Rob]

Obama won Florida both times. It's not that far-fetched.

[Rob]

Obama won Florida both times. It's not that far-fetched.

And just to add to this, I do think it's possible that we're in this mess because the Dem party insisted on Hillary. She got surprised in 2008, and then they cleared the field for her in 2016 to avoid a repeat. She was the worst possible candidate to run. This has been said a lot already, but it's a plausible theory.

[Mickey]

Obama won Florida both times. It's not that far-fetched.

Sure, but I'm talking about the present constituencies in Florida and how likely they are to vote for Trump, not Romney or McCain. I'm basing this off, in part, anecdotal evidence, what it feels like to drive around the larger Tampa area and the types of conversations my parents and their friends are having (and the conversations my sister and her friends are having in Tallahassee)--so I could be very wrong! But I'd be shocked. And remember, Florida has had a GOP governor since 1999, recently elected a Trump-style figure in DeSantis, and voted for perennially disliked former governor Scott in the senate race over the incumbent Nelson, who had been polling above Scott for much of the cycle and bears a striking similarity to Biden (older white centrist who maybe has dementia). These last two examples happened during the 2018 blue wave.