Red Mosquito

In fact I'm more confidant that Trump wins Florida than any other swing state.

I'd be surprised if Biden won Florida, but I think it's still a far greater likelihood than Trump swinging a state that went blue last time. And when it comes to PA, it seems like the best evidence that Trump will carry the state is that he did last time. It's possible I could be forgetting something, but from Trump approval ratings to polling to state elections, has Trump and the GOP had much, if any, good news in PA since he was inaugurated?

digster wrote:I'd be surprised if Biden won Florida, but I think it's still a far greater likelihood than Trump swinging a state that went blue last time. And when it comes to PA, it seems like the best evidence that Trump will carry the state is that he did last time. It's possible I could be forgetting something, but from Trump approval ratings to polling to state elections, has Trump and the GOP had much, if any, good news in PA since he was inaugurated?

I live in PA, so this is really more of a gut feeling call than anything else. Wolf (D) did win pretty convincingly in 2018, though House and Senate are still GOP controlled. RCP has Biden ahead in aggregate polling by about 4 points, double where Hillary was on election night. But I can't shake the feeling that Trump is going to win here again.

digster wrote:I'd be surprised if Biden won Florida, but I think it's still a far greater likelihood than Trump swinging a state that went blue last time. And when it comes to PA, it seems like the best evidence that Trump will carry the state is that he did last time. It's possible I could be forgetting something, but from Trump approval ratings to polling to state elections, has Trump and the GOP had much, if any, good news in PA since he was inaugurated?

Is there any evidence beyond winning last time in any of the states he flipped, aside from FL? And even in FL, is the midterm result the only added evidence that it's trending more red?

I've said it before in this thread but I would also be pretty wary of putting much faith in polls around Trump. The 2016 election more or less demonstrated that voters are more comfortable voting for Trump than they are saying they'll vote for Trump. Not saying he's going to suddenly win when he's down ten points, but I don't think we can count that out in any of the states that are close.

Also FWIW recent poll with almost 6000 respondents has them tied in Florida. And Trump is up in North Carolina, though there hasn't been much polling there.

Mickey wrote:

Rob wrote:Obama won Florida both times. It's not that far-fetched.

Sure, but I'm talking about the present constituencies in Florida and how likely they are to vote for Trump, not Romney or McCain. I'm basing this off, in part, anecdotal evidence, what it feels like to drive around the larger Tampa area and the types of conversations my parents and their friends are having (and the conversations my sister and her friends are having in Tallahassee)--so I could be very wrong! But I'd be shocked. And remember, Florida has had a GOP governor since 1999, recently elected a Trump-style figure in DeSantis, and voted for perennially disliked former governor Scott in the senate race over the incumbent Nelson, who had been polling above Scott for much of the cycle and bears a striking similarity to Biden (older white centrist who maybe has dementia). These last two examples happened during the 2018 blue wave.

i'm not as close to it as you, having not lived there. but based on what i've seen over the past 4 years and the trends, this is exactly where i come down.

Chris_H_2 wrote:

Mickey wrote:

Rob wrote:Obama won Florida both times. It's not that far-fetched.

Sure, but I'm talking about the present constituencies in Florida and how likely they are to vote for Trump, not Romney or McCain. I'm basing this off, in part, anecdotal evidence, what it feels like to drive around the larger Tampa area and the types of conversations my parents and their friends are having (and the conversations my sister and her friends are having in Tallahassee)--so I could be very wrong! But I'd be shocked. And remember, Florida has had a GOP governor since 1999, recently elected a Trump-style figure in DeSantis, and voted for perennially disliked former governor Scott in the senate race over the incumbent Nelson, who had been polling above Scott for much of the cycle and bears a striking similarity to Biden (older white centrist who maybe has dementia). These last two examples happened during the 2018 blue wave.

i'm not as close to it as you, having not lived there. but based on what i've seen over the past 4 years and the trends, this is exactly where i come down.

Fair points, and maybe you guys are right. Should be noted though, DeSantis won his race against a very progressive candidate by 0.4%, and Nelson lost his seat to a 2 term governor by 0.12%. Trump beat Hillary there by 1.2%.

Is Trump more or less popular today? Is Biden more or less popular than Hillary? The answer to the 2nd question looks to be more. I have yet to see evidence for Trump improving anywhere. I am not arguing FOR Biden, I just believe people might be underestimating how awful a candidate Hillary was, and overestimating how popular Trump is. Anecdotally, here in the CT suburbs, you might get the impression that Trump is pretty popular here too. They're a vocal group. I can't even talk about it with half my family & friends anymore. But in reality, they aren't close to a majority.

Rob wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:

Mickey wrote:

Rob wrote:Obama won Florida both times. It's not that far-fetched.

Sure, but I'm talking about the present constituencies in Florida and how likely they are to vote for Trump, not Romney or McCain. I'm basing this off, in part, anecdotal evidence, what it feels like to drive around the larger Tampa area and the types of conversations my parents and their friends are having (and the conversations my sister and her friends are having in Tallahassee)--so I could be very wrong! But I'd be shocked. And remember, Florida has had a GOP governor since 1999, recently elected a Trump-style figure in DeSantis, and voted for perennially disliked former governor Scott in the senate race over the incumbent Nelson, who had been polling above Scott for much of the cycle and bears a striking similarity to Biden (older white centrist who maybe has dementia). These last two examples happened during the 2018 blue wave.

i'm not as close to it as you, having not lived there. but based on what i've seen over the past 4 years and the trends, this is exactly where i come down.

Fair points, and maybe you guys are right. Should be noted though, DeSantis won his race against a very progressive candidate by 0.4%, and Nelson lost his seat to a 2 term governor by 0.12%. Trump beat Hillary there by 1.2%.

Is Trump more or less popular today? Is Biden more or less popular than Hillary? The answer to the 2nd question looks to be more. I have yet to see evidence for Trump improving anywhere. I am not arguing FOR Biden, I just believe people might be underestimating how awful a candidate Hillary was, and overestimating how popular Trump is. Anecdotally, here in the CT suburbs, you might get the impression that Trump is pretty popular here too. They're a vocal group. I can't even talk about it with half my family & friends anymore. But in reality, they aren't close to a majority.

I think on a national level this is a convincing argument, to the point that you might be swaying me out of my cynicism regarding Biden's chances. But I think the numbers you point to there actually make the case for Trump in Florida this fall. Not only did DeSantis and Scott win (the latter against a three term Dem incumbent) while Trump's popularity was as low as ever (high 30s the week leading up to the election), but they won in an election where restoring felon voting rights (as progressive of a cause as any) overwhelmingly passed (~65%). I don't think we can expect the 2020 voting block to skew that far left, not in a national election year. And for the kicker, the strongest narrative on why Gillum lost? Corruption. Cue Hunter Biden ads and I'm sorry, but I think Florida is a lock.

Building his team of rivals!

Mickey wrote:
I think on a national level this is a convincing argument, to the point that you might be swaying me out of my cynicism regarding Biden's chances. But I think the numbers you point to there actually make the case for Trump in Florida this fall. Not only did DeSantis and Scott win (the latter against a three term Dem incumbent) while Trump's popularity was as low as ever (high 30s the week leading up to the election), but they won in an election where restoring felon voting rights (as progressive of a cause as any) overwhelmingly passed (~65%). I don't think we can expect the 2020 voting block to skew that far left, not in a national election year. And for the kicker, the strongest narrative on why Gillum lost? Corruption. Cue Hunter Biden ads and I'm sorry, but I think Florida is a lock.

Is there data on how many voters answered this question as opposed to the races? A ballot measure can pull people out, but I doubt it's going to spur turnout in comparison to a high profile governor or Senate race. To put it another way, what's more likely to drive Democratic voters to the polls; a ballot measure or a chance to vote Donald Trump out of office?

I think part of the issue (and I may have mentioned this before), is that all of the attention towards Trump's consistency n his approval ratings goes towards the immovability of his base. No one addresses the flip side of that; how many people in this country are just not going to vote for him no matter what?

digster wrote:

Mickey wrote:
I think on a national level this is a convincing argument, to the point that you might be swaying me out of my cynicism regarding Biden's chances. But I think the numbers you point to there actually make the case for Trump in Florida this fall. Not only did DeSantis and Scott win (the latter against a three term Dem incumbent) while Trump's popularity was as low as ever (high 30s the week leading up to the election), but they won in an election where restoring felon voting rights (as progressive of a cause as any) overwhelmingly passed (~65%). I don't think we can expect the 2020 voting block to skew that far left, not in a national election year. And for the kicker, the strongest narrative on why Gillum lost? Corruption. Cue Hunter Biden ads and I'm sorry, but I think Florida is a lock.

Is there data on how many voters answered this question as opposed to the races? A ballot measure can pull people out, but I doubt it's going to spur turnout in comparison to a high profile governor or Senate race. To put it another way, what's more likely to drive Democratic voters to the polls; a ballot measure or a chance to vote Donald Trump out of office?

I think part of the issue (and I may have mentioned this before), is that all of the attention towards Trump's consistency n his approval ratings goes towards the immovability of his base. No one addresses the flip side of that; how many people in this country are just not going to vote for him no matter what?

I was looking for exit poll data earlier and couldn't find any, but I didn't mean to suggest that I though the ballot measure drove turnout. What I meant was, the ballot measure results show you that the Democrats showed up, that they even got some moderate Republicans on-board with a progressive cause (one that DeSantis is currently trying to block), and they still lost. To me, this (combined with the factors above) suggests that 2018 was as good an opportunity as ever to reverse the 20-year trend in GOP control of the Florida statehouse, and they still couldn't do it. That doesn't augur particularly well in 2020 for Biden in Florida, when there will almost certainly be higher GOP turnout relative to the midterm races. Elsewhere, hard to say--I've made my prediction, though as I said above, Rob and others here might be pulling me back from the cynical ledge, but barring a big shift in the race dynamics, I think whatever happens, Trump takes Florida.

As to the second question, that group definitely exists. I'm not sure how you'd track it, though, and I'd also say the question isn't how many people won't vote for Trump, it's how many people will vote for Biden. Disaffected independents who go third-party or stay home only help if Biden can muster a sufficient coalition of his own, and not nationally but in the key battleground states that have been brought up today.

Restoring felon voting rights may be perceived as a progressive cause, but it had 60% support from registered Republicans in 2018, including 57% support from self-described Trump supporters. That law’s passage shouldn’t be read against a partisan backdrop, because support wasn’t all that ideologically associable.

On that note, doesn’t the trial on outstanding legal fees as a disqualifier start Monday? Any guesses on 2020 outcomes in Florida ought to wait until that comes to pass.

Biden now thinks Trump will try to postpone the election. Well, duh.

Who's campaign released this statement about their opponent's comments:
"Those are the incoherent, conspiracy theory ramblings of a lost candidate who is out of touch with reality"

Spoiler: show

Trump

I mean I think speculating that your opponent is going to try to postpone the election is a bad move, at least tactically. And Trump was criticized by Dems in 2016 for speculating that if he won the Democrats would try to negate the election results.

Mickey wrote:I mean I think speculating that your opponent is going to try to postpone the election is a bad move, at least tactically. And Trump was criticized by Dems in 2016 for speculating that if he won the Democrats would try to negate the election results.

We can't speculate that Trump will do something awful that his opponents would have never thought to do?

B wrote:

Mickey wrote:I mean I think speculating that your opponent is going to try to postpone the election is a bad move, at least tactically. And Trump was criticized by Dems in 2016 for speculating that if he won the Democrats would try to negate the election results.

We can't speculate that Trump will do something awful that his opponents would have never thought to do?

Are "we" Joe Biden?

Okay I laughed.