Red Mosquito

Mickey wrote:

Based on some 300 people who were a subset of the larger national poll, or roughly twenty people polled per swing state.

tragabigzanda wrote:

Rob wrote:

Mickey wrote:

Who knows... *shrug*

We posted about this a little after the Rocky Mountain states poll came out early last week, but it’s well within reason to see trump take the pres and the Dems to take the senate

I don't doubt the outcome is possible, it just seems least likely. The party itself seems to think they have a better chance at retaining the senate than the White House. The election is going to be mostly a referendum on Trump. It's hard for me to see a scenario where both Trump and down ballots Dems emerge victorious.

McParadigm wrote:

Mickey wrote:

Based on some 300 people who were a subset of the larger national poll, or roughly twenty people polled per swing state.

583 voters across 15 states, actually, for ~40 voters per state.

I'll also note that this same group was polled a month ago, at which point they were *more* likely to vote for Biden than they are today.

How is that any more helpful than a national poll? If Biden's getting beaten badly in Florida and ahead by a hair in MI, PA and WI, he loses that poll and wins the presidency.

digster wrote:How is that any more helpful than a national poll? If Biden's getting beaten badly in Florida and ahead by a hair in MI, PA and WI, he loses that poll and wins the presidency.

Sure, but if the aggregate of battleground states doesn't match the national polling that actually is important to know? Given that we live in a country where it's actually quite easy to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college.

when trump gets re-elected i wonder if the inauguration crowd will bring their rocket launchers

96583UP wrote:when trump gets re-elected i wonder if the inauguration crowd will bring their rocket launchers

It'll be too crowded.

Elk 2020. Vote Elk

Mickey wrote:

McParadigm wrote:

Mickey wrote:

Based on some 300 people who were a subset of the larger national poll, or roughly twenty people polled per swing state.

583 voters across 15 states, actually, for ~40 voters per state.

i can see trump being a bottom

tragabigzanda wrote:

verb_to_trust wrote:Elk 2020. Vote Elk

Bison 2024

Bison is corrupt! No to Comrade Bison!!

tragabigzanda wrote:And if anyone asks, she’s the wrong candidate because she has 0 personal political experience (though both her parents were seasoned politicians), positioning herself as an outsider bring “fresh perspectives” against a career public servant and current Lt. Gov.

She’d make a fine governor under normal circumstances, but with a pandemic and recession/looming depression, if day the moderate, seasoned pol who’s already spent two terms in the governor’s mansion — after occupying state office and leg roles himself — is the better candidate by a long shot...

To say nothing of a leftist female running against the Trump referendum in a purple state.

Is she even a leftist? Just tooling around on her page and I'm not seeing anything significantly progressive. A lot of "affordable drug pricing" and "affordable community college" stuff.

tragabigzanda wrote:No, both her and her primary opponent are nearly identified on the issues, and are both fairly moderate. But a lot of her language about “new ideas” and “outside thinking” is vulnerable to attacks on that front.

Gotcha. I was going to say, I know fuck all about MT politics at the state level but they look like literally identical platforms, just with different pitches.

so funny how pearl jam will get so explicitly involved in endorsing MT politicians yet Ed in the US National sphere totally sidesteps directly attacking trump

i remember during one of those Boston baseball shows he slipped up and dissed trump directly and then backtracked and was like 'i don't want to be divisive'

and then once he gets to his Euro solo tour just immediately dumps it all out like he was holding in a pee for 4 1/2 hours straight and finally found a bathroom

i don't even know what i am complaining about anymore

anyone think the russians are still bothering to meddle in this one or just trying to do damage control on not dying from a pandemic?

Lol there's no way Biden wins

E.H. Ruddock wrote:Lol there's no way Biden wins

my superstitious belief is that the doubts I had about trump winning will manifest themselves in my doubts about biden winning.