Red Mosquito

Mickey wrote:I'm not going to start using the L-word, as I don't think national polling means fuck all (Biden almost certainly wins the popular vote no matter what happens). But that swing in Wisconsin is very promising. It's June. But very promising.

The "L" word is obviously a big term, but it's a real possibility.

RCP average in Florida is Biden +6.2%. I remember not long ago that no one here seemed to think FL could go blue, even though Obama won it twice. (You "posted a new reply" that confirms this, I don't agree). WI & especially MI are looking good now... AZ?? TX & GA closer than usual. I'm really starting to believe America will do the right thing here.

I'm going to hold tight to my conviction that Florida will fuck this up REGARDLESS of any evidence, as it is my home state and therefore my birth right to see the very worst in it. I could be wrong about this, but. And I don't think Biden will take Texas and Georgia, the former having gone Democrat only once since 68 (ie. the southern strategy) and the latter just three times. I don't think we can count out things like voter disenfranchising in GOP controlled states like Florida. But if those Biden numbers hold for Wisconsin and are even vaguely indicative of a rust belt trend Trump is really fucked.

I suggest we pass an RM requirement where only swing state polls are permitted in this thread going forward

Rob wrote:

i hope all those young people are registered to vote / actually vote

Bernie seemed to be hung out to dry in his primary....

Mickey wrote:I'm going to hold tight to my conviction that Florida will fuck this up REGARDLESS of any evidence, as it is my home state and therefore my birth right to see the very worst in it. I could be wrong about this, but. And I don't think Biden will take Texas and Georgia, the former having gone Democrat only once since 68 (ie. the southern strategy) and the latter just three times. I don't think we can count out things like voter disenfranchising in GOP controlled states like Florida. But if those Biden numbers hold for Wisconsin and are even vaguely indicative of a rust belt trend Trump is really fucked.

We'll see, you may be right. I'm not arguing Biden will take TX or GA, just that if it's this competitive there, it means something. I think right now the spectrum goes from very narrow Trump win, to Biden landslide. Plenty of real estate in between, but very little that favors Trump.

96583UP wrote:

Rob wrote:

i hope all those young people are registered to vote / actually vote

Bernie seemed to be hung out to dry in his primary....

I don't see it this way. I love Bernie, still gonna vote for him in my primary. He's the only politician I've ever given money to. He wasn't gonna win and he did the right thing, in my opinion. I can't speak for others but I'm as proud of the guy as ever these days.

It took Millennials until the Trump years to break 40% midterm turnout. It also took (checks notes) Gen X until the Trump years to break 40.

Millennials will change this country. How? We don't totally know yet, but really it's math.

Trying to reconcile my sense that it's only June, don't get too excited, with my other sense that there's almost nothing that's going to happen in the next four months, between the looming economic collapse and the COVID second wave, that will be good for Trump

There will be no second wave of the virus, just one tsunami. That's also bad for Trump though.

My assumption is that, because the current new cases set skews younger, the death toll will lag behind the spike in cases. This will lead to dumb media analysis of “is it becoming less deadly?” And presidential polls will normalize some as people gain a sense of hope.

But as those new case kids spread it to their broader personal contacts lists, that will change. And in 4-6 weeks everything will suck harder than ever for both Donald Trump and the American people.

Words I never want to hear again after 2021:

"Curve"

"Spike"

"Overwhelmed Hospitals"

"Lagging indicator"

"Hot spot"

"Just wait two weeks"

I'm sure there are others I'm just forgetting right now

If you hate those words now, just wait four weeks.

McParadigm wrote:If you hate those words now, just wait four weeks.

I probably won't even be watching the news by then, so jokes on you. Staying informed has done nothing but piss me off. All the common sense guidelines came naturally to me in March. There really isn't any reason to monitor this stuff anymore for me but here I am.

Tons of folks find it hard to look away from a car wreck.

Especially when they’re in the car

verb_to_trust wrote:

McParadigm wrote:If you hate those words now, just wait four weeks.

I probably won't even be watching the news by then, so jokes on you. Staying informed has done nothing but piss me off. All the common sense guidelines came naturally to me in March. There really isn't any reason to monitor this stuff anymore for me but here I am.

Its like the real world has become RM

verb_to_trust wrote:

McParadigm wrote:If you hate those words now, just wait four weeks.

Staying informed has done nothing but piss me off.

I just stay informed by coming in to see what news McP drops on us. That's working out pretty well!