meatwad wrote:1. Trump loses 'yuge,' and his candidacy becomes a reckoning for Republicans as to what they stand for. They have managed to put together quite a shaky coalition over the years (from evangelicals to white nationalists), and if something is going to splinter these factions it would be a landslide defeat and possibly the loss of the Senate. Ryan and company will be forced to realign the party with their vision, and they'll either have the balls to do that or they'll continue to struggle with minorities and independents.
Having fun with thinking about realignment, I can see two scenarios arise:
--The Trumpists succeed in taking over the GOP, turning it to a rump right-wing party that can't regularly elect politicians. The GOP exiles move to the Dems and then turn it into a dominant but centrist party, kind of like the PRI dominating Mexico for so long. This probably also causes a rump left-wing party to emerge as well.
--The GOP fully expunges the Trumpists, but as a consequence has to move to a center-right party in order to form a winning coalition. This would also allow the Dems to move to the left a little bit as well without relying on some of those center-right elements.
meatwad wrote:It's the death throes of the modern Republican party. The last guy they had in was a disaster, they got a black dude for 8 years, and they just can't come to grips with the fact that the country is changing in ways they don't like. In a desperate bid to hang on to the dream of the '50s, they're sticking with who they've got. They know this is their last chance.
November 9 will be their day of reckoning.
Obviously we won't know for some time, but I think the Republican party will be just fine. They are running a candidate who if he loses it won't be because of his actual positions. It will be because the guy they ran is so obviously unqualified, uniquely unfit to be given the reigns of power, and has done more than any candidate in memory to sabotage his own campaign. I still don't think this election is over by a long shot, but just picture how different the conversation would be today if Trump managed to merely string together mildly coherent cliched sentences for 90 minutes last week. Or then didn't dive headfirst into Clinton's Machado trap. Or decide that blaming Hillary for Bill's infidelities is a good idea.
If, and I still think it's a bigger if than a lot of people think, Trump does in fact lose, just think how "moderate" Paul Ryan or even Ted Cruz will seem in by comparison in 2020 to people who don't understand politics.
The party will be survive. They still dominate at the state level, still have drawn congressional districts all over the country that favor their party. I'm more curious about this foray into anti-trade territory. Is that temporary or will the party go back to supporting trade again and traditional Republican positions?
Demographics are pretty tough for them as far as the electoral college goes right now, but they're still in great position for the House and state governments. And in 2018 Democrats are defending a ton of Senate seats so Republicans will almost assuredly take back the Senate then if they happen to lose it this year because of Trump.
If Trump does lose it's going to be very interesting to see how quickly Republicans try to distance themselves from this episode in their history. Or it'll be fascinating to watch if they don't, I suppose.
I'd say the one caveat is that while Trump may not be a presence after 2016, he's given Trumpists within the GOP prominence that they didn't have before. We'll have to see if a more conventional Republican from here on out will have to pander to Trumpists in order to keep a coalition together.
On the other hand, Ara is definitely correct that there's a generational aspect in play. The Silents and early Boomers that remember the 1950s fondly are dwindling fast. It won't be too much longer until there's no one left that was old enough to remember that decade at all.
That's when Gen X and the Vedder/Cornell ticket takes control. Mandatory Flannel Fridays for all federal employees!
Trump has not committed any crimes by purchasing his steel and aluminum from China, nor did he engage in wrongdoing by using Chinese textile factories to make his clothing lines. But, given the only beneficiaries of his decisions to go with cheaper Chinese metals for his construction project are Trump and his family, he is not someone who ever attempted to lead by example by only buying products made in America. He filled his bank accounts with millions of dollars that could have gone to blue-collar workers, many of whom now believe he is the man who will bring back the jobs that he secretly helped to destroy
Conservative media has been cultivating an audience for decades, now, by actively encouraging skepticism of information sources, structures, and styles. When they first began to take this mainstream (i.e. beyond just talk radio) the talk was all about how this new group of disenchanted people would combine with their moral majority and economic conservatives to produce genuine, lasting dominance. How could the democrats complete against that trifecta?
Instead, over time, it has allowed a large subset of their constituents to disappear into a feedback loop of their own making that, because of the very nature of how it was constructed, cannot be dispelled. They have slowly but surely lost control of the branding of their party, because they have been unable to place limits on the paranoia and mistrust this collection of people whose votes they NEED have developed.
In retrospect, George W Bush had qualities that hinted at what their party was moving towards. The intensity with which conservative media wrote its own story about the Iraq War, and the ferocity with which they slandered any other group's version of that story (including the government's) only extremized things, and allowed someone like Sarah Palin to become a party rallying point. Trump is just the next step down that rabbit hole, although I cannot believe that there can be a deeper, darker step beyond even that. I'm sure the republicans hope there isn't...watching them get steamrolled by their own crop this year has been brutal.
jwfocker wrote:So far, the rise of white nationalism is the most depressing social movement of my lifetime. Literally feeding Trump like some damn cancer cell. Just. Why? How?
Because issues regarding oppressed minorities have moved to the forefront of social discourse, and white men feel marginalized and attacked. Also they are stupid.
jwfocker wrote:So far, the rise of white nationalism is the most depressing social movement of my lifetime. Literally feeding Trump like some damn cancer cell. Just. Why? How?
Because issues regarding oppressed minorities have moved to the forefront of social discourse, and white men feel marginalized and attacked. Also they are stupid.
McParadigm wrote:Conservative media has been cultivating an audience for decades, now, by actively encouraging skepticism of information sources, structures, and styles. When they first began to take this mainstream (i.e. beyond just talk radio) the talk was all about how this new group of disenchanted people would combine with their moral majority and economic conservatives to produce genuine, lasting dominance. How could the democrats complete against that trifecta?
Instead, over time, it has allowed a large subset of their constituents to disappear into a feedback loop of their own making that, because of the very nature of how it was constructed, cannot be dispelled. They have slowly but surely lost control of the branding of their party, because they have been unable to place limits on the paranoia and mistrust this collection of people whose votes they NEED have developed.
In retrospect, George W Bush had qualities that hinted at what their party was moving towards. The intensity with which conservative media wrote its own story about the Iraq War, and the ferocity with which they slandered any other group's version of that story (including the government's) only extremized things, and allowed someone like Sarah Palin to become a party rallying point. Trump is just the next step down that rabbit hole, although I cannot believe that there can be a deeper, darker step beyond even that. I'm sure the republicans hope there isn't...watching them get steamrolled by their own crop this year has been brutal.
I watch CNN International and BBC World. I get my Argentine news from a couple different websites because the Argentine TV news channels are fucking terrible.
Anders wrote:I do not have a «neoliberal assessment of geopolitics», so please stop writing that I do.
Anyone interested in the VP debate at all? I have a feeling that they'll each spend more time talking about the opposing Prez candidate than themselves (i.e., Pence will attack on Clinton's emails, Kaine will hopefully break out his Trump impression). I will probably just watch clips and read the recaps.
