Red Mosquito

Alabama does what their daddy tells them to.

tragabigzanda wrote:Sessions lost his race. What an asshole that guy is.

Lmao incredible.

Sessions also said in his remarks that he holds his "head high."

"I leave elective office with my integrity intact. I feel good about it, I hold my head high," he said. "I took the road less traveled, didn't try to excuse myself or get in a fight or undermine the leader of our country, and the great work he has to do. That was an honorable path, I believe."

Probably as good a time as any to note that Tommy Tuberville is a dogshit college football coach.

Kanye dropped out

On a positive note, I got to vote for Mike Siegel in the Texas house primary this week. His kid went to my school and I got to know him a little bit, really nice guy with good policies.

We also got a new DA in Austin who's dedicated to a lot of reform, Jose Garza. I have high hopes for both.

Yay political leaders!!!

He's still not as low as Bush and Bush got reelected somehow

JuanHamm wrote:He's still not as low as Bush and Bush got reelected somehow

W was in the 40s around the 2004 election:



Trump is still above 40% on average, but just barely: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... id=rrpromo

Simple Torture wrote:

JuanHamm wrote:He's still not as low as Bush and Bush got reelected somehow

W was in the 40s around the 2004 election:



Trump is still above 40% on average, but just barely: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... id=rrpromo

That's good to know. I just have this horrible feeling he'll get reelected.

JuanHamm wrote:He's still not as low as Bush and Bush got reelected somehow

Using rolling 7 day rolling poll averages in the nine months leading up to the election:

Bush’s polling low point vs Kerry: down by 3 points
Bush’s average polling status vs Kerry: ahead by 2
Percent of time spent ahead in the polls: >55%

Trump’s polling low point vs Biden (to date): down by 10 points
Trump’s average polling status vs Biden: down by 7
Percent of time spent ahead in the polls (to date): 0%

McParadigm wrote:

JuanHamm wrote:He's still not as low as Bush and Bush got reelected somehow

Using rolling 7 day rolling poll averages in the nine months leading up to the election:

Bush’s polling low point vs Kerry: down by 3 points
Bush’s average polling status vs Kerry: ahead by 2
Percent of time spent ahead in the polls: >55%

Trump’s polling low point vs Biden (to date): down by 10 points
Trump’s average polling status vs Biden: down by 7
Percent of time spent ahead in the polls (to date): 0%

Keep going I'm almost there...

It's going to be a lot closer than people think. Polls are dumb as shit and a lot of people will vote for Trump who would never admit it to anyone, not even themselves.

elliseamos wrote:

McParadigm wrote:

JuanHamm wrote:He's still not as low as Bush and Bush got reelected somehow

Using rolling 7 day rolling poll averages in the nine months leading up to the election:

Bush’s polling low point vs Kerry: down by 3 points
Bush’s average polling status vs Kerry: ahead by 2
Percent of time spent ahead in the polls: >55%

Trump’s polling low point vs Biden (to date): down by 10 points
Trump’s average polling status vs Biden: down by 7
Percent of time spent ahead in the polls (to date): 0%

Keep going I'm almost there...

If the last few years have taught us anything, it's the reliability of polling.

Uh.

Birds in Hell wrote:

elliseamos wrote:

McParadigm wrote:

JuanHamm wrote:He's still not as low as Bush and Bush got reelected somehow

Using rolling 7 day rolling poll averages in the nine months leading up to the election:

Bush’s polling low point vs Kerry: down by 3 points
Bush’s average polling status vs Kerry: ahead by 2
Percent of time spent ahead in the polls: >55%

Trump’s polling low point vs Biden (to date): down by 10 points
Trump’s average polling status vs Biden: down by 7
Percent of time spent ahead in the polls (to date): 0%

Keep going I'm almost there...

If the last few years have taught us anything, it's the reliability of polling.

Uh.

That’s correct. Collectively, the polling has been steadily reflective of the vote.

It's going to be a lot closer than people think. Polls are dumb as shit and a lot of people will vote for Trump who would never admit it to anyone, not even themselves.

The “secretly pro-Trump folks that will definitely go out and vote for him during a pandemic” crowd must have been the only group of people in the entirety of America who couldn’t be bothered to turn out for the 2018 midterms. That’s odd.

What makes it particularly strange is that the President they will definitely turn out for ran around the country for months, begging them to turn out for him and telling them his presidency was threatened if they didn’t.

I mean every other group in America showed up in record numbers, making it the highest percentage turnout in a hundred years. Just that one group of very secret people who definitely exist in numbers that would redefine this race didn’t show up. So weird.

It will definitely be an abnormally rough year for polling (which has been within about 3 percent of the final vote on average for the last few decades, including 2018), in part because places without vote by mail and especially those communities with reduced polling stations will have tremendous turnout issues. It’s a pandemic.

There will be less of a sense of safety, trust, and community going in than in any other election we’ve been through. There will probably be an historic amount of intimidation efforts on display. And none of us knows what might happen to affect polling in the coming months. But there isn’t a magic 10...or 5....percent secret bonus of voters on either side, anywhere.

Hilary was supposed to win easily.