Red Mosquito

Higgs wrote:21st of May was the last time you reported over 25,000 new cases across the US in a day. I'll bet you $100 that you get above that again within the next 3 weeks.

Aus dollars, so about tree-fiddy US.

EDIT - let's make it more interesting. Last time you were over 27,000 was 8th of May. Let's go with $100 that the US records over 27,000 cases in a day at some point in the future.

FWIW I would be very glad to lose and pay out on this bet.

Whatever you say. I'll bet the opposite but I'll just need a friendly reminder when I lose or win. Im a lazy gambler

Everyone always says "just wait 2 weeks!". I don't think the big spike is coming for another few months.

verb_to_trust wrote:Everyone always says "just wait 2 weeks!". I don't think the big spike is coming for another few months.

Agreed. The US had its first case Jan 20, and shit hit the fan like 2 months later. Also seems true (so far) that summer weather may slow transmission. Those 1918 pandemic graphs show a lull in the summer before it comes back with a vengeance mid-autumn. Was talking to a couple teachers in my neighborhood, and they say the plan as of now is to start school as normal at the end of August, but they're already preparing to have to pull the plug by November 1 or so.

Our state has been on a steady climb in cases and a slow climb on hospitalization. As much as they talk about contact tracing, I feel like it's time to start telling us the kinds of places where this is getting passed around.

I mean, if you really want to re-open based on data, how about opening the kinds of places where transmission is rare and holding back on the kinds of places where it's frequent.

I mean, are these numbers jumping b/c of nursing homes and meat packing plants? That's info I can use.

Yeah NC and SC are not looking good

Pretty nice article about BC’s top doc and how she has done an amazing job navigating us through the pandemic.

https://www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject. ... s.amp.html

Rob wrote:

verb_to_trust wrote:Everyone always says "just wait 2 weeks!". I don't think the big spike is coming for another few months.

Agreed. The US had its first case Jan 20, and shit hit the fan like 2 months later. Also seems true (so far) that summer weather may slow transmission. Those 1918 pandemic graphs show a lull in the summer before it comes back with a vengeance mid-autumn. Was talking to a couple teachers in my neighborhood, and they say the plan as of now is to start school as normal at the end of August, but they're already preparing to have to pull the plug by November 1 or so.

The findings of this report are up until April 6th and I feel there is quite a need to see some data on the effectiveness of the measures as well as incorporating the timing to possibly work backward. And from there we at least have a stop-gap measure should another wave come along without any solid therapies aside from hospitalization.

The team found that while some policies change behavior immediately and may have quickly led to small benefits, it took three weeks, in general, for policies to achieve their full impact on the spread of COVID-19. Now that some countries are relaxing policies, Hsiang said, “we might reasonably expect signals of any renewed spread to emerge on a similar two- to-three-week time frame.”

They also note that there simply was not a lot of data as far as school closures go from the countries they studied but, obviously, a further effort dialing in on that situation should be continued.

TL;DR

96583UP wrote:

Higgs wrote:

Rangi Guy wrote:

LetMeSleep wrote:

Rangi Guy wrote:According to official data New Zealand is now Covid free!!!

Was just reading about that. Awesome news.

Not exactly BBQ temperatures here, but come on over and we'll fire it up anyway!

I might go hug a stranger!

Nice one! Excellent stuff.

Congrats!

Who would have thought a remote pacific island with a population density of 46 people per square mile could get this taken care of after only 3 months of closed borders!



happy for you

they must've banned all the sheep fucking

Save Ewe

let me sheep

Better Ram

seven o flock

Simple Torture wrote:Better Ram

Shepherdman

push me, wool me

McParadigm wrote:

Simple Torture wrote:Better Ram

Shepherdman

sweaterman

Ewe Are

spike wrote:

96583UP wrote:

Higgs wrote:

Rangi Guy wrote:

LetMeSleep wrote:

Rangi Guy wrote:According to official data New Zealand is now Covid free!!!

Was just reading about that. Awesome news.

Not exactly BBQ temperatures here, but come on over and we'll fire it up anyway!

I might go hug a stranger!

Nice one! Excellent stuff.

Congrats!

Who would have thought a remote pacific island with a population density of 46 people per square mile could get this taken care of after only 3 months of closed borders!



happy for you

they must've banned all the sheep fucking

Oh, and no! This is still encouraged!

B wrote: I mean, if you really want to re-open based on data, how about opening the kinds of places where transmission is rare and holding back on the kinds of places where it's frequent.

Friend who is San Fran ER doctor that has raged balls deep in the Cov19 scene now for months said at this point it looks like in order to contract this outdoors someone basically needs to sneeze in your face

also becoming clearer that fomite transition is low probability