Red Mosquito

Seems like internal Republican polling might be sounding some alarms that public polling isn’t. Paul Ryan’s PAC is throwing tons of money at a race everyone else says is safely Republican, while the RNCC has cancelled all ads in a congressional race that is polling neck and neck.

That seems likely. Party polling infrastructure is also more robust, built in to the larger and well-resourced apparatus. Their connections are live, meaning they don’t depend on people answering unrecognized numbers. They tend to be able to demonstrate trend changes long before public pollsters do. I wonder if doubling down on divisive rhetoric to turn out the base has produced some unintended costs.

Ahh, Nebraska. Why did we ever break up?

McParadigm wrote:Ahh, Nebraska. Why did we ever break up?

"Strong odor"

McParadigm wrote:Seems like internal Republican polling might be sounding some alarms that public polling isn’t. Paul Ryan’s PAC is throwing tons of money at a race everyone else says is safely Republican, while the RNCC has cancelled all ads in a congressional race that is polling neck and neck.

I wonder if it could have to do with exit polls of early voters? Early voting has set the world on fire. I think 16 states have already had more early votes cast than total votes cast in 2014.

You’re right, of course. This conversation began as a way for me to explain away support for Cruz (or any republican) in the Texas farming industry. It’s not rational to vote against farming interests, but I bet you a hot dollar it happens on Tuesday in ranchland TX.

washing machine wrote:You’re right, of course. This conversation began as a way for me to explain away support for Cruz (or any republican) in the Texas farming industry. It’s not rational to vote against farming interests, but I bet you a hot dollar it happens on Tuesday in ranchland TX.

Agreed.

Less sure about some other deep red ag states, tho.

McParadigm wrote:

washing machine wrote:You’re right, of course. This conversation began as a way for me to explain away support for Cruz (or any republican) in the Texas farming industry. It’s not rational to vote against farming interests, but I bet you a hot dollar it happens on Tuesday in ranchland TX.

Agreed.

Less sure about some other deep red ag states, tho.

Which states?

This is a topic that interests me immensely. Not so much as a farmer, but as someone who has made a career in food and beverage through farm to table restos.

4/5 wrote:

McParadigm wrote:Seems like internal Republican polling might be sounding some alarms that public polling isn’t. Paul Ryan’s PAC is throwing tons of money at a race everyone else says is safely Republican, while the RNCC has cancelled all ads in a congressional race that is polling neck and neck.

I wonder if it could have to do with exit polls of early voters? Early voting has set the world on fire. I think 16 states have already had more early votes cast than total votes cast in 2014.

Why voting isn’t over a weekend is beyond me. I mean it’s obviously racism and class warfare, but why we haven’t changed it is crazy.

tragabigzanda wrote:

Bi_3 wrote:

4/5 wrote:

McParadigm wrote:Seems like internal Republican polling might be sounding some alarms that public polling isn’t. Paul Ryan’s PAC is throwing tons of money at a race everyone else says is safely Republican, while the RNCC has cancelled all ads in a congressional race that is polling neck and neck.

I wonder if it could have to do with exit polls of early voters? Early voting has set the world on fire. I think 16 states have already had more early votes cast than total votes cast in 2014.

Why voting isn’t over a weekend is beyond me. I mean it’s obviously racism and class warfare, but why we haven’t changed it is crazy.

Is this something that could be changed on a state-by-state basic, or would such a change (or a voting holiday, etc) have to be enacted at the federal level?

State

Edit: Kinda. Presidential and midterm election dates are set as the Tuesday after the first Monday of November in the Constitution.

washing machine wrote:

McParadigm wrote:

washing machine wrote:You’re right, of course. This conversation began as a way for me to explain away support for Cruz (or any republican) in the Texas farming industry. It’s not rational to vote against farming interests, but I bet you a hot dollar it happens on Tuesday in ranchland TX.

Agreed.

Less sure about some other deep red ag states, tho.

Which states?

This is a topic that interests me immensely. Not so much as a farmer, but as someone who has made a career in food and beverage through farm to table restos.

Kristi Noem is in real danger in SD.

Between my wife’s family and my own, there are 4 family farms out there. All four are getting economically hammered by sanctions, are frustrated by the offer of a farmer payoff, and bitter about the healthcare and tax cut votes. Immigration is a popular talking point out there, but has no actual voter impact. Nearly everybody working on a farm in South Dakota is family member (there are a lot of immigrants, but they are the principle work force for the plastics and other factories that can never find enough local workers, and which bring big money to poor communities by staying open). Kavanaugh re-birthed their party support temporarily but, ultimately, the Supreme Court exists mostly as an abstract idea out there and it was just a good bit of gossip. My wife’s brother just posted a lengthy statement on Facebook about how he won’t be voting this year, and not one reply has been an attempt to talk him out of it.

Another thing that’s important to remember: the Catholicism in the plains is nuts. They’ve been social media chatting about the church more than they have Trump. It’s probably hard to summon righteous support for your institutions, when the one that mattered most to you enabled such a betrayal. Even their pro life passion is super muted this year, just because it’s always been framed almost entirely by their spirituality. I’m sure the politics of it is still there at the personal level, but the motivating (and vote driving) echo chamber is deeply muted.

tragabigzanda wrote:

4/5 wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:

Bi_3 wrote:

4/5 wrote:

McParadigm wrote:Seems like internal Republican polling might be sounding some alarms that public polling isn’t. Paul Ryan’s PAC is throwing tons of money at a race everyone else says is safely Republican, while the RNCC has cancelled all ads in a congressional race that is polling neck and neck.

I wonder if it could have to do with exit polls of early voters? Early voting has set the world on fire. I think 16 states have already had more early votes cast than total votes cast in 2014.

Why voting isn’t over a weekend is beyond me. I mean it’s obviously racism and class warfare, but why we haven’t changed it is crazy.

Is this something that could be changed on a state-by-state basic, or would such a change (or a voting holiday, etc) have to be enacted at the federal level?

State

well then wtf

Crap you got in before my edit. Now my initial incomplete answer is there forever.

Okay more complete answer:

Article 1 wrote:The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators.

That Tuesday after the first Monday in November thing is federal law. So it's up to states still--they're in charge of most things about elections--but Congress has passed federal laws specifying that as the date. States can make it a holiday, however. They can also expand early voting, etc. I think Oregon mails everybody in the state a ballot. So states have a lot of freedom to make voting easier, but it would probably take a new congressional law to change the official election day.