Red Mosquito

The year “doesn’t have much of an effect one way or the other” became president.

McParadigm wrote:The year “doesn’t have much of an effect one way or the other” became president.

Buckllllllllllllle uuuuuuuup

i just picture Putin rolling in joy at the opportunity set in the U.S. right now to stoke further division

96583UP wrote:i just picture Putin rolling in joy at the opportunity set in the U.S. right now to stoke further division

And reading this I think of Super Troopers and the guys like, "we're already pulled over, we can't pull over any more."

Because you said "further division."

elliseamos wrote:

96583UP wrote:i just picture Putin rolling in joy at the opportunity set in the U.S. right now to stoke further division

And reading this I think of Super Troopers and the guys like, "we're already pulled over, we can't pull over any more."

Because you said "further division."

haha

it could always get more divided

Spoiler: show

McParadigm wrote:The year “doesn’t have much of an effect one way or the other” became president.

How meaningless. The only question they're asking is "who are you voting for?"

i'll tell you what would get the vote out

$10K stimulus checks

make it happen

rock the vote

96583UP wrote:i'll tell you what would get the vote out

$10K stimulus checks

make it happen

rock the vote

*Its happening gif replacing Ron Paul with Andrew Yang

Biden has gained a percentage point a day on FiveThirtyEight's model. Hard to keep the optimism at bay.

B wrote:Biden has gained a percentage point a day on FiveThirtyEight's model. Hard to keep the optimism at bay.

Such a small bit of movement means almost nothing at this point. Trump still has almost a 1/3 shot to win according to their model, which is about the same chance he had on election day 2016, and, well....

Simple Torture wrote:

B wrote:Biden has gained a percentage point a day on FiveThirtyEight's model. Hard to keep the optimism at bay.

Such a small bit of movement means almost nothing at this point. Trump still has almost a 1/3 shot to win according to their model, which is about the same chance he had on election day 2016, and, well....

I watched it tick slowly down from 72% to 68%, so watching it go back up at a percentage point per day feels like victory.

B wrote:

Simple Torture wrote:

B wrote:Biden has gained a percentage point a day on FiveThirtyEight's model. Hard to keep the optimism at bay.

Such a small bit of movement means almost nothing at this point. Trump still has almost a 1/3 shot to win according to their model, which is about the same chance he had on election day 2016, and, well....

I watched it tick slowly down from 72% to 68%, so watching it go back up at a percentage point per day feels like victory.

Prediction modeling is such a big fat meh, but the lack of volatility is a big change and says more than the actual percentages involved.

2016 modeling over time:

2020:


Also, mix this observation by a GOP pollster... ...with this map from 2018... ...and you have a perfect summary of Trump’s problem. He needs a big shift from a status quo that has existed for upwards of two years. He needs it to happen in less than two months.

Addendum

The question is this:

When you hold the delicate flower of a lead like this, do you protect it through not dropping it (do no harm strategy)? Or is the better strategy to go for the kill? There is sadly no right answer to this.

My ballot arrived today.

B wrote:My ballot arrived today.

Vote early and often!