Red Mosquito

4/5 wrote:

BurtReynolds wrote:good news everyone. one day your parents will die.

https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/ ... lverlining

Or we could, you know, ease up on zoning laws that prevent housing from being built.

Hell no. I bought in R200 for a reason.

Bi_3 wrote:

4/5 wrote:

BurtReynolds wrote:good news everyone. one day your parents will die.

https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/ ... lverlining

Or we could, you know, ease up on zoning laws that prevent housing from being built.

Hell no. I bought in R200 for a reason.

YIMBY!!!!

The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs: Evidence from the United States Using a Bunching Estimator

https://www.nber.org/papers/w25434

We find that the overall number of low-wage jobs remained essentially unchanged over five years following the increase. At the same time, the direct effect of the minimum wage on average earnings was amplified by modest wage spillovers at the bottom of the wage distribution. Our estimates by detailed demographic groups show that the lack of job loss is not explained by labor-labor substitution at the bottom of the wage distribution. We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages. However, we do find some evidence of reduced employment in tradable sectors.

McParadigm wrote:The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs: Evidence from the United States Using a Bunching Estimator

https://www.nber.org/papers/w25434

We find that the overall number of low-wage jobs remained essentially unchanged over five years following the increase. At the same time, the direct effect of the minimum wage on average earnings was amplified by modest wage spillovers at the bottom of the wage distribution. Our estimates by detailed demographic groups show that the lack of job loss is not explained by labor-labor substitution at the bottom of the wage distribution. We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages. However, we do find some evidence of reduced employment in tradable sectors.

Yeah, that isn't particularly surprising. Most studies (on either side, for or against) that claim to find huge changes seem to crumble under closer inspection.

I don't have access to that paper without paying for it, but I would be interested if they found changes in the number of hours worked and/or total wage payments. According to some studies, while the minimum wage hasn't really decreased employment in those jobs it has decreased the total hours of labor for minimum wage workers and has basically had no effect on total wage payments.

https://www.gq.com/story/amber-waves-of ... -july-2012

It's from 2012 but I saw it linked today.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/ ... exit-plans

For 380 breathless pages, Lord Rees-Mogg and a co-author, James Dale Davidson, an American investment guru and conservative propagandist, predicted that digital technology would make the world hugely more competitive, unequal and unstable. Societies would splinter. Taxes would be evaded. Government would gradually wither away. “By 2010 or thereabouts,” they wrote, welfare states “will simply become unfinanceable”. In such a harsh world, only the most talented, self-reliant, technologically adept person – “the sovereign individual” – would thrive.

huh. anyone here with experience with this?

bune wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/nov/09/mystic-mogg-jacob-rees-mogg-willam-predicts-brexit-plans

For 380 breathless pages, Lord Rees-Mogg and a co-author, James Dale Davidson, an American investment guru and conservative propagandist, predicted that digital technology would make the world hugely more competitive, unequal and unstable. Societies would splinter. Taxes would be evaded. Government would gradually wither away. “By 2010 or thereabouts,” they wrote, welfare states “will simply become unfinanceable”. In such a harsh world, only the most talented, self-reliant, technologically adept person – “the sovereign individual” – would thrive.

huh. anyone here with experience with this?

we'll never know, thodoks left with most of the other smart people

doug rr wrote:

bune wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/nov/09/mystic-mogg-jacob-rees-mogg-willam-predicts-brexit-plans

For 380 breathless pages, Lord Rees-Mogg and a co-author, James Dale Davidson, an American investment guru and conservative propagandist, predicted that digital technology would make the world hugely more competitive, unequal and unstable. Societies would splinter. Taxes would be evaded. Government would gradually wither away. “By 2010 or thereabouts,” they wrote, welfare states “will simply become unfinanceable”. In such a harsh world, only the most talented, self-reliant, technologically adept person – “the sovereign individual” – would thrive.

huh. anyone here with experience with this?

we'll never know, thodoks left with most of the other smart people

predicted that digital technology would make the world hugely more competitive, unequal and unstable. Societies would splinter.

This is pretty spot on though and people have been predicting this brave new world for a while.

That's the part that made me want to read the thoughts of someone smart enough to understand what the book was talking about beyond that blurb.

Bi_3 wrote:

predicted that digital technology would make the world hugely more competitive, unequal and unstable. Societies would splinter.

This is pretty spot on though and people have been predicting this brave new world for a while.

"Industrial Society and its Future"

Why is this not mandatory reading!?

4/5 wrote:

McParadigm wrote:The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs: Evidence from the United States Using a Bunching Estimator

https://www.nber.org/papers/w25434

We find that the overall number of low-wage jobs remained essentially unchanged over five years following the increase. At the same time, the direct effect of the minimum wage on average earnings was amplified by modest wage spillovers at the bottom of the wage distribution. Our estimates by detailed demographic groups show that the lack of job loss is not explained by labor-labor substitution at the bottom of the wage distribution. We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages. However, we do find some evidence of reduced employment in tradable sectors.

Yeah, that isn't particularly surprising. Most studies (on either side, for or against) that claim to find huge changes seem to crumble under closer inspection.

I don't have access to that paper without paying for it, but I would be interested if they found changes in the number of hours worked and/or total wage payments. According to some studies, while the minimum wage hasn't really decreased employment in those jobs it has decreased the total hours of labor for minimum wage workers and has basically had no effect on total wage payments.

Econofact did a piece on minimum wage, arguing that it doesn't help the people it intends to help. Whoever writes for that site is a huge fan of the earned income tax credit as a better solution.
https://econofact.org/who-benefits-from ... nimum-wage

Dscans wrote:

4/5 wrote:

McParadigm wrote:The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs: Evidence from the United States Using a Bunching Estimator

https://www.nber.org/papers/w25434

We find that the overall number of low-wage jobs remained essentially unchanged over five years following the increase. At the same time, the direct effect of the minimum wage on average earnings was amplified by modest wage spillovers at the bottom of the wage distribution. Our estimates by detailed demographic groups show that the lack of job loss is not explained by labor-labor substitution at the bottom of the wage distribution. We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages. However, we do find some evidence of reduced employment in tradable sectors.

Yeah, that isn't particularly surprising. Most studies (on either side, for or against) that claim to find huge changes seem to crumble under closer inspection.

I don't have access to that paper without paying for it, but I would be interested if they found changes in the number of hours worked and/or total wage payments. According to some studies, while the minimum wage hasn't really decreased employment in those jobs it has decreased the total hours of labor for minimum wage workers and has basically had no effect on total wage payments.

Econofact did a piece on minimum wage, arguing that it doesn't help the people it intends to help. Whoever writes for that site is a huge fan of the earned income tax credit as a better solution.
https://econofact.org/who-benefits-from ... nimum-wage

I think that article is on point. I also think that a lot of people get turned off by economists when they point out the costs/flaws in a particular market intervention, like minimum wage, because they assume that the person is arguing that markets are perfect or that no intervention is ever justified. In reality, the entire point of economics is to compare the costs and benefits of actions and policies, which can make economists exceedingly unpopular when they're do things like warn people to exercise caution when they hope that a minimum wage or rent control or high marginal tax rate will be a magic bullet to cure society's ills. I appreciate articles like this that suggest an alternative policy that may better accomplish the goal rather than just argue why the minimum wage itself isn't good, which often just leads to supporters declaring that the opponents of a minimum wage hike are corporate shills or hate the poor and ends up with people arguing past each other instead of engaging in a good faith debate on the efficacy of a particular policy proposal.

McParadigm wrote:

But what about all the jobs automation creates, and how it leads to better quality jobs, and even crappy jobs become less crappy with better technology, and shorter work weeks, and lower prices, and improved economic conditions, yadda yadda yadda.

The linked article is embarrassing.

4/5 wrote:

McParadigm wrote:

But what about all the jobs automation creates, and how it leads to better quality jobs, and even crappy jobs become less crappy with better technology, and shorter work weeks, and lower prices, and improved economic conditions, yadda yadda yadda.

The linked article is embarrassing.

It's almost like we should not advocate for policies that increase the population segments most effected by this. Wall them off somehow.

Question: If jobs rose during the shutdown, is it possible the numbers are inflated by people who tried to get a second one to make up for the loss of their OG paycheck?

bune wrote:Question: If jobs rose during the shutdown, is it possible the numbers are inflated by people who tried to get a second one to make up for the loss of their OG paycheck?

That's possible. I haven't gotten a chance to read about the jobs report yet, but I did see that the unemployment rate ticked up and that's also probably explained largely by the shutdown as well. But the economy has been adding jobs every single month for years, I can't even remember the last time we had a month where jobs declined, so the increase is probably not mostly caused by 2nd jobs by federal employees, though it may have accounted for some of it.