Re: 2014 Tour Rumours
Posted: Wed May 28, 2014 3:17 pm
So, are we thinking that these odds reflect total requests, regardless of priority? In other words, if somebody has requested GA and Reserved to the same show (as most will, I think), then both of these requests count against the odds, even if only one of the requests can get filled?
If so, this means that even if Reserved odds are somewhat below 100%, it's more likely that its closer to 100%. For example, Memphis Reserved is sitting at 96%. But Memphis GA is 40%. If many of the GA requesters also have reserved as a lower priority, then you're effectively guaranteed the Memphis reserved seat tickets regardless of priority if you don't get GA first.
This would mean that the real chances of getting drawn for reserved seating with your 2nd priority for shows like St. Louis (52%), Detroit (49%), and St Paul (46%) are really better than it may seem.
Assuming the above is accurate, I'm thinking that Lincoln is really the only show where you might get GA as your 2nd choice (74%) , all others (46% and below) are unlikely to remain after the 1st round. So, other than Lincoln, the only shot at GA tickets is with your 1st choice - so fire only one GA bullet (unless you want Lincoln).
Despite my frustrations over no Louisville show (arrgggghhh), I've put in for the shows below.
1- Cincinnati GA
2- St Louis Res
3- Cincinnati Res
4- Memphis Res
I figure even if I'm shut out of Cincy and St Louis, the Memphis Reserved is almost a sure thing, even as my lowly 4th priority.
EDIT-
I checked the PIT for some info on my question, someone had this posted-
If so, this means that even if Reserved odds are somewhat below 100%, it's more likely that its closer to 100%. For example, Memphis Reserved is sitting at 96%. But Memphis GA is 40%. If many of the GA requesters also have reserved as a lower priority, then you're effectively guaranteed the Memphis reserved seat tickets regardless of priority if you don't get GA first.
This would mean that the real chances of getting drawn for reserved seating with your 2nd priority for shows like St. Louis (52%), Detroit (49%), and St Paul (46%) are really better than it may seem.
Assuming the above is accurate, I'm thinking that Lincoln is really the only show where you might get GA as your 2nd choice (74%) , all others (46% and below) are unlikely to remain after the 1st round. So, other than Lincoln, the only shot at GA tickets is with your 1st choice - so fire only one GA bullet (unless you want Lincoln).
Despite my frustrations over no Louisville show (arrgggghhh), I've put in for the shows below.
1- Cincinnati GA
2- St Louis Res
3- Cincinnati Res
4- Memphis Res
I figure even if I'm shut out of Cincy and St Louis, the Memphis Reserved is almost a sure thing, even as my lowly 4th priority.
EDIT-
I checked the PIT for some info on my question, someone had this posted-
So, yeah, that's how it works.All priority choices are included in the odds. I emailed the ten club and their response.
"The odds tool is are separate from priority. The odds you see do not take your personal entry priority choices into consideration. The odds listed on the site are general."
