Red Mosquito

Bammer wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:

Bi_3 wrote:If he went back to peak Biden for the election it would be the biggest sweep in history, and likely the end of MAGA as a major force in politics :

there's no way that he remembers saying that

Peeps, your retort? Please try to keep little girls out of it by the way, perv.

Strat wrote:Also is it not republicans blocking attempts to fix the border right now ?

Bi_3 wrote:

spike wrote:

Bi_3 wrote:If he went back to peak Biden for the election it would be the biggest sweep in history, and likely the end of MAGA as a major force in politics :

He’s CEO now. Gotta control that spending with half measures.

ANYWAY....

The Texas thing is turning into quite the event, itll be interesting to see how Biden responds to states openly rejecting federal direction:

States backing texas:

Bi_3 wrote:

Strat wrote:Also is it not republicans blocking attempts to fix the border right now ?

It was republicans who could have prevent all this (and potentially impacted the fentanyl crises) had they accepted Obamas immigration reform plan

spike wrote:

Bi_3 wrote:

spike wrote:

Bi_3 wrote:If he went back to peak Biden for the election it would be the biggest sweep in history, and likely the end of MAGA as a major force in politics :

He’s CEO now. Gotta control that spending with half measures.

ANYWAY....

The Texas thing is turning into quite the event, itll be interesting to see how Biden responds to states openly rejecting federal direction:

States backing texas:

Don’t be such a dick. I was simply suggesting his priorities or viewpoint might change when he’s in charge of the country, not just a congressman.

tragabigzanda wrote:Unusually funny for a peeps joke

Bammer wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:Unusually funny for a peeps joke

I’ll take that as a W

Strat wrote:Also is it not republicans blocking attempts to fix the border right now ?

Bi_3 wrote:

McParadigm wrote:I think the vast majority of people have more or less tuned Trump out since February 2021. First of all, because they finally could. And second, because they were sick of hearing about him.

And I think his polling numbers benefit from that very effortful “out of sight, out of mind”ness right now. Which is actually a real problem for him, because an election cycle will put him and his words right back in people’s faces….and his rhetoric has grown more divisive in the last few years, not less.

I would say that he is guaranteed, in his base-driven echo chamber, to say stupid shit that costs him essential voters over the next 10 months. People who weren’t happy about him before, but are frustrated with the current state of things. Or maybe those who have just sort of tempered their memory of his presidency over the last 4 years. He can’t lose ANY of these people and still win…and he will lose some of them.

Meanwhile, he is highly unlikely to say things that bring new people in to replace that loss. His appeal has nowhere to go but down as the cycle heats up. Not a lot down…his core support is unflappable…but he can’t afford to see it drop at all. 2% is a killer from where he’s starting. And he simply doesn’t have a message that brings people in. He doesn’t care to. He seems to have fully removed all of the people from his circle who thought about that at all.

At the end of the day (and I’m not any happier about this than anyone else) I think the Biden administration correctly believes that once the public starts hearing Donald Trump weigh in on the events of the day again…he will produce all the blue vote motivation they need. The Democrat establishment’s lesson from the last 8 years has been “just run against Trump and the problem fixes itself.” Which is shit, and will bite them in the ass the first time Trump is not a topic in an election. But here we are.

The three unknown variables to me are: who is his running mate, how bad is the drag from Biden being a guy literally no one wants to reelect, and what will disinformation be like this time around? Like, is this the last presidential election not fully swallowed up by digital disinformation? Or is it the first one of the new era?

If Trump picked a moderating running mate, that would change the equation. But he won’t. He’ll more likely pick someone that his base friggin loves, but who provides no real additional draw to what Trump already brings in. Zero gain.

If Biden died and they ran Harris, I think Trump could and probably would win.

If disinformation fatigues people into an even deeper level of cynicism and hopelessness than American is already plagued with, he might win.

But barring some kind of shift from the status quo, I think he loses because his polling numbers always, always suffer from an increase in attention.

So right now I'm a lot more interested in what happens the day he loses, and the day after that. If something changes, I might start to worry about what happens if he wins.

B wrote:NPR theory: Haley is staying in because if Trump totally fucks himself, there's nowhere to go but to her.

spike wrote:

B wrote:NPR theory: Haley is staying in because if Trump totally fucks himself, there's nowhere to go but to her.

That’s absolutely what she’s doing.