Red Mosquito

Why does he even have these? Has there ever been less enthusiasm for a candidate, much less a winning one? Just stay home. you've already won.

BurtReynolds wrote:Why does he even have these? Has there ever been less enthusiasm for a candidate, much less a winning one? Just stay home. you've already won.

The leftist fraggles are too busy demanding people #vote to actually do it and MAGA doesnt fear getting the virus at the polls, so Joe needs people to stay motivated.

B wrote:

B wrote:Every day, one more model crosses the line onto Biden's side.

Every day ...

I just pound refresh all day on 538.

96583UP wrote:i'll never forget the point where it became clear his massive margin in FL wasn't going away as the cities were counted and i had to put my whiskey down bc i had that 'oh shit' sick in the stomach feeling (but not from the whiskey)

I was visiting friends in NYC, absolutely fucking blitzed, and nothing seemed real. One of the strangest days of my life

Can we just put you into a coma until the election, B?

JuanHamm wrote:Can we just put you into a coma until the election, B?

YOU specifically? No.

Jorge wrote:

96583UP wrote:i'll never forget the point where it became clear his massive margin in FL wasn't going away as the cities were counted and i had to put my whiskey down bc i had that 'oh shit' sick in the stomach feeling (but not from the whiskey)

I was visiting friends in NYC, absolutely fucking blitzed, and nothing seemed real. One of the strangest days of my life

I went for a walk to just get away from the creeping dread of the Trump victory and my neighborhood streets were filled with people doing the same at 10 pm. It was indeed bizarre.

How are we feeling about the helmut norpoth model prediction?

Dscans wrote:How are we feeling about the helmut norpoth model prediction?

Doesn’t taste different than other snake oils.

"This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter. "

l o l

McParadigm wrote:

Dscans wrote:How are we feeling about the helmut norpoth model prediction?

Doesn’t taste different than other snake oils.

Have other snake oils batted 24 for their last 26?

I actually am not quite as confident of a Biden victory as many people seem to be but clearly some stuff has gone down since March that altered the race considerably

Dscans wrote:

McParadigm wrote:

Dscans wrote:How are we feeling about the helmut norpoth model prediction?

Doesn’t taste different than other snake oils.

Have other snake oils batted 24 for their last 26?

If you want to believe a model that relies on zero polling data and currently predicts Donald Trump winning New York and Hawaii, by all means.

Jorge wrote:I actually am not quite as confident of a Biden victory as many people seem to be but clearly some stuff has gone down since March that altered the race considerably

Same.

Jorge wrote:I actually am not quite as confident of a Biden victory as many people seem to be but clearly some stuff has gone down since March that altered the race considerably

The national polls do seem a bit inflated. Biden is consistently polling at like +12 in a bunch of polls, and even +10 would be the biggest gap since '92. But the state polls that matter are much closer--PA is the tipping point state and Biden is only up ~6 points. There's still lots of time left.

The Norpoth model makes its predictions largely based on how well each candidate fared during their primaries. His own words: “As Trump won the New Hampshire and South Carolina Republican primaries by wide margins, the model therefore predicts that the president will do better than Biden in the general.”

I mean.

Anyways, the only reason to take seriously a model that says Trump has a hog’s chance in hell of getting 360 electoral votes in 2020 is if you are a liberal feeding your anxiety, a conservative who just plain wants to believe it, or Corey Lewandowski.

Simple Torture wrote:

Jorge wrote:I actually am not quite as confident of a Biden victory as many people seem to be but clearly some stuff has gone down since March that altered the race considerably

The national polls do seem a bit inflated. Biden is consistently polling at like +12 in a bunch of polls, and even +10 would be the biggest gap since '92. But the state polls that matter are much closer--PA is the tipping point state and Biden is only up ~6 points. There's still lots of time left.

There’s hardly any time left at all. Opinions are solidified at this point. Even all the turmoil in October 2016 only moved the needle by 4 points. Trump has to do *double* that to even be potentially solvent. Instead he has pulled nearly all advertising from multiple states he must win in order to secure re-election (his campaign has mostly replaced this with advertising in DC, where he will be more likely to see it and be comforted), started a public fight with his own Justice Department for not doing enough to damage his enemies, focused his schedule solely on events that rally his base, and ruined his chance to redeem his botched first debate performance.

Polling in 2018 had Democrats running at a 7% advantage. They won by 8.4%. If mangling a pandemic response, getting flown to the hospital, and person woman man camera tv have turned the tide on that, I dunno.

yeah, im doubtful too.

But im also worried about whats going to happen with Trump if he loses.

McParadigm wrote:

Simple Torture wrote:

Jorge wrote:I actually am not quite as confident of a Biden victory as many people seem to be but clearly some stuff has gone down since March that altered the race considerably

The national polls do seem a bit inflated. Biden is consistently polling at like +12 in a bunch of polls, and even +10 would be the biggest gap since '92. But the state polls that matter are much closer--PA is the tipping point state and Biden is only up ~6 points. There's still lots of time left.

There’s hardly any time left at all. Opinions are solidified at this point. Even all the turmoil in October 2016 only moved the needle by 4 points. Trump has to do *double* that to even be potentially solvent. Instead he has pulled nearly all advertising from multiple states he must win in order to secure re-election (his campaign has mostly replaced this with advertising in DC, where he will be more likely to see it and be comforted), started a public fight with his own Justice Department for not doing enough to damage his enemies, focused his schedule solely on events that rally his base, and ruined his chance to redeem his botched first debate performance.

Polling in 2018 had Democrats running at a 7% advantage. They won by 8.4%. If mangling a pandemic response, getting flown to the hospital, and person woman man camera tv have turned the tide on that, I dunno.

I've still got 2016 PTSD, man.

Simple Torture wrote:

McParadigm wrote:

Simple Torture wrote:

Jorge wrote:I actually am not quite as confident of a Biden victory as many people seem to be but clearly some stuff has gone down since March that altered the race considerably

The national polls do seem a bit inflated. Biden is consistently polling at like +12 in a bunch of polls, and even +10 would be the biggest gap since '92. But the state polls that matter are much closer--PA is the tipping point state and Biden is only up ~6 points. There's still lots of time left.

There’s hardly any time left at all. Opinions are solidified at this point. Even all the turmoil in October 2016 only moved the needle by 4 points. Trump has to do *double* that to even be potentially solvent. Instead he has pulled nearly all advertising from multiple states he must win in order to secure re-election (his campaign has mostly replaced this with advertising in DC, where he will be more likely to see it and be comforted), started a public fight with his own Justice Department for not doing enough to damage his enemies, focused his schedule solely on events that rally his base, and ruined his chance to redeem his botched first debate performance.

Polling in 2018 had Democrats running at a 7% advantage. They won by 8.4%. If mangling a pandemic response, getting flown to the hospital, and person woman man camera tv have turned the tide on that, I dunno.

I've still got 2016 PTSD, man.

This is my state of mind, too. I just won't believe anything until Trump's actually gone.