Red Mosquito

E.H. Ruddock wrote:Looking forward to another middle-of-the-road season from the Orioles!

They're weird. They spent a ton of money this offseason to be only slightly worse than the .500 team they were last year, plus they're giving up the 14th overall pick to sign a pitcher who really isn't very good. They're in a position where they should be tearing it down and rebuilding, but instead they're giving up future pieces to desperately try to compete with a roster that's clearly not good enough.

I guess it's getting close to prediction time, isn't it?

Yeah I don't understand the Orioles at all right now.

cutuphalfdead wrote:Yeah I don't understand the Orioles at all right now.

Prediction #1: The Royals aren't actually magic and end the season as a ~.500 team.

you don't have to pour salt in the wound, guys.

philpritchard wrote:Prediction #1: The Royals aren't actually magic and end the season as a ~.500 team.

Ok PECOTA.

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Prediction #1: The Royals aren't actually magic and end the season as a ~.500 team.

Ok PECOTA.

They're the 2014-2015 Orioles. They're coming off a great season that defied expectations, but it was buoyed by a lot of luck that isn't likely to carry forward.

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Prediction #1: The Royals aren't actually magic and end the season as a ~.500 team.

Ok PECOTA.

They're the 2014-2015 Orioles. They're coming off a great season that defied expectations, but it was buoyed by a lot of luck that isn't likely to carry forward.

two great seasons

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Prediction #1: The Royals aren't actually magic and end the season as a ~.500 team.

Ok PECOTA.

They're the 2014-2015 Orioles. They're coming off a great season that defied expectations, but it was buoyed by a lot of luck that isn't likely to carry forward.

two great seasons

Two seasons of outplaying your pythag/baseruns still doesn't make it anything more than a fluke.

bold prediction: one of the following tigers currently making in excess of $18 million per season will sustain injuries: victor Martinez, annibel sanchez, Justin verlander, or Miguel Cabrera

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Prediction #1: The Royals aren't actually magic and end the season as a ~.500 team.

Ok PECOTA.

They're the 2014-2015 Orioles. They're coming off a great season that defied expectations, but it was buoyed by a lot of luck that isn't likely to carry forward.

two great seasons

Two seasons of outplaying your pythag/baseruns still doesn't make it anything more than a fluke.

ned yost

Chris_H_2 wrote:

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Prediction #1: The Royals aren't actually magic and end the season as a ~.500 team.

Ok PECOTA.

They're the 2014-2015 Orioles. They're coming off a great season that defied expectations, but it was buoyed by a lot of luck that isn't likely to carry forward.

two great seasons

Two seasons of outplaying your pythag/baseruns still doesn't make it anything more than a fluke.

ned yost

The answer to the "outplaying peripherals" argument was Buck Showalter for a couple years, until, suddenly, it wasn't.

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Prediction #1: The Royals aren't actually magic and end the season as a ~.500 team.

Ok PECOTA.

They're the 2014-2015 Orioles. They're coming off a great season that defied expectations, but it was buoyed by a lot of luck that isn't likely to carry forward.

two great seasons

Two seasons of outplaying your pythag/baseruns still doesn't make it anything more than a fluke.

Or...that's what speed do!

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Prediction #1: The Royals aren't actually magic and end the season as a ~.500 team.

Ok PECOTA.

They're the 2014-2015 Orioles. They're coming off a great season that defied expectations, but it was buoyed by a lot of luck that isn't likely to carry forward.

two great seasons

Two seasons of outplaying your pythag/baseruns still doesn't make it anything more than a fluke.

Or...that's what speed do!

I thought it was defense.

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

philpritchard wrote:Prediction #1: The Royals aren't actually magic and end the season as a ~.500 team.

Ok PECOTA.

They're the 2014-2015 Orioles. They're coming off a great season that defied expectations, but it was buoyed by a lot of luck that isn't likely to carry forward.

two great seasons

Two seasons of outplaying your pythag/baseruns still doesn't make it anything more than a fluke.

Or...that's what speed do!

I thought it was defense.

And bullpen.

While on a rational level I entirely agree with Phil, there is part of me that wonders if the current analysis tools dont know how to properly track the way the Royals did it. I think most that are into stats acknowledge that if there are two weaknesses of advanced analysis it's defense, and bullpen. Their model is built entirely around those two things, so maybe it's not a fluke?

@SkitchP wrote:While on a rational level I entirely agree with Phil, there is part of me that wonders if the current analysis tools dont know how to properly track the way the Royals did it. I think most that are into stats acknowledge that if there are two weaknesses of advanced analysis it's defense, and bullpen. Their model is built entirely around those two things, so maybe it's not a fluke?

Brian Kenny, who's deep in the sabre camp, essentially said this on mlb network the other day.

cutuphalfdead wrote:

@SkitchP wrote:While on a rational level I entirely agree with Phil, there is part of me that wonders if the current analysis tools dont know how to properly track the way the Royals did it. I think most that are into stats acknowledge that if there are two weaknesses of advanced analysis it's defense, and bullpen. Their model is built entirely around those two things, so maybe it's not a fluke?

Brian Kenny, who's deep in the sabre camp, essentially said this on mlb network the other day.

Yay!

@SkitchP wrote:While on a rational level I entirely agree with Phil, there is part of me that wonders if the current analysis tools dont know how to properly track the way the Royals did it. I think most that are into stats acknowledge that if there are two weaknesses of advanced analysis it's defense, and bullpen. Their model is built entirely around those two things, so maybe it's not a fluke?

It's certainly possible, but until there's even a hint of actual evidence to support it, I don't see any reason to change my expectations.

Quick, unscientific study, because I like this stuff:

In the last 20 years, 13 teams have had both a great bullpen (top 10% of all seasons by reliever FIP) and great defense (top 10% of all seasons by UZR) in the same season. Those 13 teams combined for a .537 winning percentage and they had a .532 Pythagorean winning percentage. So... small sample, but I guess you can expect roughly half a win extra.

For the record, the Royals and the 2013 Rays are the only two teams in this sample to have surpassed their Pythagorean record by more than two games (they were both +5). The Rays have been below .500 the two years since.