Red Mosquito

The Red Sox prospects are generally overvalued. There's been plenty of guys that were once untouchable that werent even competent major league backups. Lars Anderson was once supposed to be the next great Red Sox power hitter.

numbers wrote:The Red Sox prospects are generally overvalued. There's been plenty of guys that were once untouchable that werent even competent major league backups. Lars Anderson was once supposed to be the next great Red Sox power hitter.

and that's true everywhere. Just slightly more so in the baseball crazy markets.

Except St. Louis. All those guys turn out to be fucking great.

numbers wrote:The Red Sox prospects are generally overvalued. There's been plenty of guys that were once untouchable that werent even competent major league backups. Lars Anderson was once supposed to be the next great Red Sox power hitter.

I don't think that's a Red Sox issue so much as it's a prospect issue. It might be more magnified because of the scrutiny of a major market, but it happens everywhere. Prospect evaluators like Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus won't value Anderson or Montero or Hughes or Bradley differently because of the system they're in. You hear more about the prospects because of the media scrutiny that surrounds the team, but no one genuinely values those players different because of it.

philpritchard wrote:

numbers wrote:The Red Sox prospects are generally overvalued. There's been plenty of guys that were once untouchable that werent even competent major league backups. Lars Anderson was once supposed to be the next great Red Sox power hitter.

I don't think that's a Red Sox issue so much as it's a prospect issue. It might be more magnified because of the scrutiny of a major market, but it happens everywhere. Prospect evaluators like Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus won't value Anderson or Montero or Hughes or Bradley differently because of the system they're in. You hear more about the prospects because of the media scrutiny that surrounds the team, but no one genuinely values those players different because of it.

That's probably true.

There is a ton of great prospects in the Twins system. I wanna say they have like 7 in the top 50? Something sick like that.

Every team (Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Royals, A's, etc) have prospects that don't pan out. I'm pretty sure Casey Fossum was untouchable at one point in the Red Sox system. Daniel Bard as well. Guys like Betts, Swihart, Bradley, Bogaerts, Owens, Webster and Barnes would be good/great prospects in anyone's organization. It's a crapshoot no doubt. Keep those 3-4 good prospects or trade for help now. It's a game some GMs excel at and some suck balls at. It's one of the parts of the game that fascinates me the most.

I wouldn't worry about Bogaerts too much yet. Yes he has struggled. Such is life for a top prospect. Mike Trout was terrible when he was called up in 2011. He got sent back down, figured it out and the rest has been history. He is on another level I get that and I'm NOT comparing XB to Trout but I think XB will be really good. Maybe as soon as 2015 or 2016.

As a die hard Texas Rangers fan since I was 9 (1990...I have family in Dallas) I have seen a little bit of everything....cutting payroll, trying to win within, overspending (cough cough ARod, Chan Ho Park, etc), bad trades (Adrian Gonzalez or Chris Davis would be nice right now), great trades, success, failure (lots of it...finished last in the AL West 6 out of 7 years from 2001-2007) and you get the point. In a bigger market I get it. Your fans are impatient, you wanna win now, etc. The Red Sox have kinda earned a stay of execution from the fan base this season. I totally agree with the poster above who said last year as a perfect storm. But after 3 titles in a decade I'd pump the brakes and see what you got in the offseason. I'd be shocked at this point if you don't end up with Lester (resigned), Scherzer or Shields next year which will balance out the rotation. Maybe even Masterson who yes is having a down year but was awesome last year in a hitters park and is a durable starter and well...they get paid.


As a hardcore Cardinals hater (at the risk of sounding dramatic the 2011 World Series broke my heart) I admit they do an amazing job of running that franchise. They draft well, sign well, rarely overpay for someone, find good bargains, etc etc. It hurts me to say that but it's true.

The thing is, other than the Cards, who have had any success building with their prospects for any sustained period? The last Ten years, Tigers (Verlander and a bunch of trades/signings), Red Sox (Pedroia, Lester, Bucholz) and a bunch of trades/signings) A's (getting everyone else's castoffs), Giants I guess, but thats been based almost entirely on rotation. Angels, Phillies, Dodgers and Rangers- Signings and trades. The Twins had a nice run of getting to the playoffs for awhile..

The value is most prospects is getting their value sufficiently built up so that you can trade them for a more known commodity, because most of them end up with a lot more value BEFORE they see a pitch in the big leagues.

@SkitchP wrote:The thing is, other than the Cards, who have had any success building with their prospects for any sustained period? The last Ten years, Tigers (Verlander and a bunch of trades/signings), Red Sox (Pedroia, Lester, Bucholz) and a bunch of trades/signings) A's (getting everyone else's castoffs), Giants I guess, but thats been based almost entirely on rotation. Angels, Phillies, Dodgers and Rangers- Signings and trades. The Twins had a nice run of getting to the playoffs for awhile..

The value is most prospects is getting their value sufficiently built up so that you can trade them for a more known commodity, because most of them end up with a lot more value BEFORE they see a pitch in the big leagues.

It's amazing how much more draft picks themselves are valued than they used to be previously. The draft pick compensation is considered almost as valuable as the player it is tied to, which is ludicrous to me.

Agreed numbers. A lot of Ranger fans were pissed when they signed Choo and had to surrender their draft pick. Choo is a very good everyday outfielder, a fantastic lead off hitter and a left handed bat with some pop we desperately needed and he probably has 4-5 really good years left so I didn't care at all.

All of that being said the Red Sox compensation pick (Kopech) has amazing stuff they are saying. Made Alex Jackson (6th pick overall) look silly on some film I saw.

@SkitchP wrote:The thing is, other than the Cards, who have had any success building with their prospects for any sustained period? The last Ten years, Tigers (Verlander and a bunch of trades/signings), Red Sox (Pedroia, Lester, Bucholz) and a bunch of trades/signings) A's (getting everyone else's castoffs), Giants I guess, but thats been based almost entirely on rotation. Angels, Phillies, Dodgers and Rangers- Signings and trades. The Twins had a nice run of getting to the playoffs for awhile..

The value is most prospects is getting their value sufficiently built up so that you can trade them for a more known commodity, because most of them end up with a lot more value BEFORE they see a pitch in the big leagues.

I see what you are saying. You can add Ellsbury, Papelbon and Youkilis as well to the home grown Red Sox list. Obviously key guys there. Giants also had Posey, Belt, Crawford and Pablo play key roles in 2012.

Just curious what kind of moves you Red Sox fans would have made this past off season that you didn't and what you'd like to see (within reason) this off season?

@SkitchP wrote:The thing is, other than the Cards, who have had any success building with their prospects for any sustained period? The last Ten years, Tigers (Verlander and a bunch of trades/signings), Red Sox (Pedroia, Lester, Bucholz) and a bunch of trades/signings) A's (getting everyone else's castoffs), Giants I guess, but thats been based almost entirely on rotation. Angels, Phillies, Dodgers and Rangers- Signings and trades. The Twins had a nice run of getting to the playoffs for awhile..

The value is most prospects is getting their value sufficiently built up so that you can trade them for a more known commodity, because most of them end up with a lot more value BEFORE they see a pitch in the big leagues.

I would put the Rays in the same category as the Cards.

A lot of the value in a team's management and scouting (and this goes far beyond simply looking at the numbers) is in deciding how to proceed with any given player. I agree with whoever mentioned it above that many prospects' highest value is before they get their first major league at bats because up until that point you can dream about all the possibilities, but sometimes the best thing to do is to hang onto a prospect. It's all about how organizations differ in their future expectations of a player. Sometimes your big first base prospect turns into Lars Anderson, but every once in a while he turns into Mo Vaughn. Some teams are better at identifying the differences than others.

5-6 years ago, I would have agreed with the Jays that Travis Snider was the kind of prospect you hang onto and plan your future around.

philpritchard wrote:

@SkitchP wrote:The thing is, other than the Cards, who have had any success building with their prospects for any sustained period? The last Ten years, Tigers (Verlander and a bunch of trades/signings), Red Sox (Pedroia, Lester, Bucholz) and a bunch of trades/signings) A's (getting everyone else's castoffs), Giants I guess, but thats been based almost entirely on rotation. Angels, Phillies, Dodgers and Rangers- Signings and trades. The Twins had a nice run of getting to the playoffs for awhile..

The value is most prospects is getting their value sufficiently built up so that you can trade them for a more known commodity, because most of them end up with a lot more value BEFORE they see a pitch in the big leagues.

I would put the Rays in the same category as the Cards.

A lot of the value in a team's management and scouting (and this goes far beyond simply looking at the numbers) is in deciding how to proceed with any given player. I agree with whoever mentioned it above that many prospects' highest value is before they get their first major league at bats because up until that point you can dream about all the possibilities, but sometimes the best thing to do is to hang onto a prospect. It's all about how organizations differ in their future expectations of a player. Sometimes your big first base prospect turns into Lars Anderson, but every once in a while he turns into Mo Vaughn. Some teams are better at identifying the differences than others.

5-6 years ago, I would have agreed with the Jays that Travis Snider was the kind of prospect you hang onto and plan your future around.

Rays are such a mixed bag. I kinda root for them sometimes (sorry Boston fans) because they are kind of the little engine that could. They need to trade Price this year though. They will get a lot for him. Also, I'd deal Zobrist if I was them. Hell, I really want my Rangers to get Zobrist. If the Rays wait to deal Price in the offseason the Rangers for sure have the farm to get him. Darvish, Price and healthy Derek Holland at the top of the Rangers rotation would make me happy.

Side note Red Sox fans.....I caught a homerun from Mo Vaughn at a Rangers/Angles game circa 1999.

BigRedLedbetter wrote:Rays are such a mixed bag. I kinda root for them sometimes (sorry Boston fans) because they are kind of the little engine that could. They need to trade Price this year though. They will get a lot for him. Also, I'd deal Zobrist if I was them. Hell, I really want my Rangers to get Zobrist. If the Rays wait to deal Price in the offseason the Rangers for sure have the farm to get him. Darvish, Price and healthy Derek Holland at the top of the Rangers rotation would make me happy.

Zobrist and Price would be the perfect trade target for the Jays right now. A top of the rotation starter and a 2nd baseman (particularly a versatile one) are exactly what they need. The prospect cost to acquire them will likely be ridiculous, though, and it'll be that much worse because of the divisional thing.

philpritchard wrote:

BigRedLedbetter wrote:Rays are such a mixed bag. I kinda root for them sometimes (sorry Boston fans) because they are kind of the little engine that could. They need to trade Price this year though. They will get a lot for him. Also, I'd deal Zobrist if I was them. Hell, I really want my Rangers to get Zobrist. If the Rays wait to deal Price in the offseason the Rangers for sure have the farm to get him. Darvish, Price and healthy Derek Holland at the top of the Rangers rotation would make me happy.

Zobrist and Price would be the perfect trade target for the Jays right now. A top of the rotation starter and a 2nd baseman (particularly a versatile one) are exactly what they need. The prospect cost to acquire them will likely be ridiculous, though, and it'll be that much worse because of the divisional thing.

Not unspeakable though. The Rangers traded for Cliff Lee from the Mariners this time in 2010.

I think Zobrist ends up on the A's. He won't cost (prospects wise) as much as someone like Price. Thing about trading for Price is it's a huge risk because he is a FA at the end of 2015 but I'd still be in favor of going after him if I was the Rangers front office in the the offseason. Obviously we wouldn't do that this year as we will be sellers (Soria, Rios, maybe Cotts & Frasor) and not buyers.

IF Price is traded I'd say the Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves and Angels all have a good shot. Yankees too.

Price at the top of the Blue Jays rotation with Buehrle and Dickey (how do you not love those 2 guys?) would be fierce come playoff time if you get there.

Was just reading earlier parts of this thread, lol at how I referred to Bogaerts as "Boogarts" for months.

This Brock Holt thing is reaching the point where I'm starting to believe that he is a legit major league starter.

Ten years ago today...

That was a fun year.

That game was so awesome.

Gabe Kapler was a fucking beast.

Also, never forget:

Ortiz, Nixon, and Kapler legit beat the shit out of Tanyon Sturtz. Not baseball fight style, legit.

Down 8-0 with two out in the ninth is a shitty time to lose one of your best players to an injury.