Red Mosquito

Electromatic wrote:

Fuck You Jobu wrote:

spike wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:stupid brewers

and now, after intentionally walking montero to load the bases, they walked the fucking pitcher to make it 2-1 cubs

Normally you'd just say "that's so Cubs", but this year its different. or

Just say.... That's so Braves.

Or the safest bet... Same Ol' Lions.

jason heyward just made a great over the shoulder catch, but he hit the wall awkwardly and left the game. uh oh.

My in laws got a smart TV since I was last in Australia, so I'm watching the Cubs via MLBTV.

spike wrote:My in laws got a smart TV since I was last in Australia, so I'm watching the Cubs via MLBTV.

G'day!

Ichiro... that is all

The Cubs won today ...

Chris_H_2 wrote:The Cubs won today ...

Arrieta lost today for the first time in nearly a year

Fuck You Jobu wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:The Cubs won today ...

Arrieta lost today for the first time in nearly a year

i like how they lost 2 games on their last home stand (going 8-2), and both were Arrieta starts.

again, no need to panic. but this shows that he had nowhere to go but down and to regress, which is why you don't have to extend his contract now with a year and a half remaining on it, and where he said there will be no hometown discounts. wait until next year when his contract expires and see what kind of a pitcher he is after that many more pitches/innings and at 32 years old. ask the tigers how they feel about extending justin verlander under the same circumstances.

Chris_H_2 wrote:

Fuck You Jobu wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:The Cubs won today ...

Arrieta lost today for the first time in nearly a year

i like how they lost 2 games on their last home stand (going 8-2), and both were Arrieta starts.

again, no need to panic. but this shows that he had nowhere to go but down and to regress, which is why you don't have to extend his contract now with a year and a half remaining on it, and where he said there will be no hometown discounts. wait until next year when his contract expires and see what kind of a pitcher he is after that many more pitches/innings and at 32 years old. ask the tigers how they feel about extending justin verlander under the same circumstances.

Well, Verlander had a much better pedigree than Arrietta.

Chris_H_2 wrote:

Fuck You Jobu wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:The Cubs won today ...

Arrieta lost today for the first time in nearly a year

i like how they lost 2 games on their last home stand (going 8-2), and both were Arrieta starts.

again, no need to panic. but this shows that he had nowhere to go but down and to regress, which is why you don't have to extend his contract now with a year and a half remaining on it, and where he said there will be no hometown discounts. wait until next year when his contract expires and see what kind of a pitcher he is after that many more pitches/innings and at 32 years old. ask the tigers how they feel about extending justin verlander under the same circumstances.

Oh no, not panicking.

And it' not like he had horrible starts, they were just under average. His "absolute worst" performances right now are basically league average right now. Incredible.

numbers wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:

Fuck You Jobu wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:The Cubs won today ...

Arrieta lost today for the first time in nearly a year

i like how they lost 2 games on their last home stand (going 8-2), and both were Arrieta starts.

again, no need to panic. but this shows that he had nowhere to go but down and to regress, which is why you don't have to extend his contract now with a year and a half remaining on it, and where he said there will be no hometown discounts. wait until next year when his contract expires and see what kind of a pitcher he is after that many more pitches/innings and at 32 years old. ask the tigers how they feel about extending justin verlander under the same circumstances.

Well, Verlander had a much better pedigree than Arrietta.

sure. but he had also thrown way more innings and had already shown signs of regression too. my point is (and was at the time of the verlander signing) that with a full year and half remaining on a contract, there's no reason to rush instead of waiting to see what pitcher you're signing later on if you are in fact locking him up (especially when considering the number of years that they got (verlander) and want (arrieta)).

Chris_H_2 wrote: sure. but he had also thrown way more innings and had already shown signs of regression too. my point is (and was at the time of the verlander signing) that with a full year and half remaining on a contract, there's no reason to rush instead of waiting to see what pitcher you're signing later on if you are in fact locking him up (especially when considering the number of years that they got (verlander) and want (arrieta)).

He says, ignoring Justin Verlanders last 26 starts.


Arbitrary End Point time!!! (but a decent enough sample size, especially recovering from his abbreviated spring training in 2015 as he recovered from offseason surgery)

Dating to 7/24 of last year
26 Starts
178 2/3 IP
60 ER
3.02 ERA
136 Hits, 43 BB- 1.00 WHIP
176 K's (8.87 K/9)



And if we're having fun with arbitrary end points, lets throw in a "remove the outlying awful starts!" (of which there are two)
24 Starts
169 1/3 IP
46 ER
2.44 ERA
118 Hits, 38 BB- 0.92 WHIP
172 K's (9.14 K/9)

@SkitchP wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote: sure. but he had also thrown way more innings and had already shown signs of regression too. my point is (and was at the time of the verlander signing) that with a full year and half remaining on a contract, there's no reason to rush instead of waiting to see what pitcher you're signing later on if you are in fact locking him up (especially when considering the number of years that they got (verlander) and want (arrieta)).

He says, ignoring Justin Verlanders last 26 starts.


Arbitrary End Point time!!! (but a decent enough sample size, especially recovering from his abbreviated spring training in 2015 as he recovered from offseason surgery)

Dating to 7/24 of last year
26 Starts
178 2/3 IP
60 ER
3.02 ERA
136 Hits, 43 BB- 1.00 WHIP
176 K's (8.87 K/9)



And if we're having fun with arbitrary end points, lets throw in a "remove the outlying awful starts!" (of which there are two)
24 Starts
169 1/3 IP
46 ER
2.44 ERA
118 Hits, 38 BB- 0.92 WHIP
172 K's (9.14 K/9)

You're being intellectually dishonest if you say you would've signed him to a contract extension through 2019 where you're paying him $28 million per season ($28 million in the last 5 years!) knowing that these would be his numbers during 2013 and 2014 (the years remaining on his contract) (I'm even throwing out 2015):

IP: 218 and 206; ERA: 3.46 and 4.54; SO: 217 and 159; BB: 75 and 65; WHIP: 1.315 and 1.398; SO/W: 2.89 and 2.45.

I repeat: they didn't have to give him a contract extension when he had 2 seasons left on his underlying one (particularly an extension as onerous in years and dollars as they gave). The Tigers didn't get the memo that it's not 2002 and power pitchers can no longer pitch into their late 30's at the levels as they pitched in their 20's, particularly ones that had already thrown a ton of pitches leading up to the contract.

Skitch, I don't care what you say, but that extension in terms of timing, amounts, and years, was inexcusable.

And by the way, it's not like we're having this discussion with the benefit of hindsight. This was our discussion right after the extension:

@SkitchP wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:

@SkitchP wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:

@SkitchP wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:

@SkitchP wrote:So Verlander is locked up through 2020. I wonder what we'll get when we trade Max Scherzer next year.

A worse contract than Verlander's?

You dislike the deal?

I'm guessing there's going to be at least $45 million per year in wasted payroll between him and Fielder in about 5 years from now.

You think JV will be done by 35?

Maybe not done, but certainly not a $23 million a year pitcher. I hope I'm wrong and I eat crow, but I think his innings start catching up to him.

I hope not either, but if Detroit didn't give him this contract now, someone else would have (and then some) after 2014.

Probably. But if someone else wanted to give him a huge deal when he's 32, I still wouldn't have a problem with it. They're going to have to re-tool one of these days.

Chris_H_2 wrote:
You're being intellectually dishonest if you say you would've signed him to a contract extension through 2019 where you're paying him $28 million per season ($28 million in the last 5 years!) knowing that these would be his numbers during 2013 and 2014 (the years remaining on his contract) (I'm even throwing out 2015):

IP: 218 and 206; ERA: 3.46 and 4.54; SO: 217 and 159; BB: 75 and 65; WHIP: 1.315 and 1.398; SO/W: 2.89 and 2.45.

I repeat: they didn't have to give him a contract extension when he had 2 seasons left on his underlying one (particularly an extension as onerous in years and dollars as they gave). The Tigers didn't get the memo that it's not 2002 and power pitchers can no longer pitch into their late 30's at the levels as they pitched in their 20's, particularly ones that had already thrown a ton of pitches leading up to the contract.

Skitch, I don't care what you say, but that extension in terms of timing, amounts, and years, was inexcusable.

2014 he was hurt for the vast majority of the season, and that carried over to the first half dozen or so starts in 2015. Since healthy, he has been damned near THE Justin Verlander. Over what amounts to essentially a full season.

And of course the contract is high. All superstars signed in their prime contracts are high to buy the years out of free agency, but in some cases you definitely have to account for more than just the performance. And when you signed that contract you knew you had a window to try and win, and there was absolutely no way that Tigers team had a chance without Justin Verlander. Also, "face of the franchise" does have quite a bit of financial value. And frankly, im not sure what else they would have done with that money, and its not like its stopped Illitch from signing anyone else.

and I get the IP thing, I do. But up until 2014 he had never even shown a sign of being hurt, and even then it was core muscle and triceps. Not overuse injury on the elbow or shoulder.

And its basically what large market teams do. Sabathia, Price, Grienke, etc. Its just the nature of the beast for a team trying to show it's contending. You overpay for starting pitching then cross your fingers.

Chris_H_2 wrote:
Probably. But if someone else wanted to give him a huge deal when he's 32, I still wouldn't have a problem with it. They're going to have to re-tool one of these days.

Oh, i think they're done with this core. I thought so by mid season last year. But luckily, it appears that Justin Verlander is the least of their problems. Im far more concerned at this point about Miguel Cabrera and Justin Upton. Also the total inability of Iglesias and McCann to hit.

They're .500 and Castellanos, Kinsler and Maybin have been unsustainabley good. They can not be expected to continue to play like they have been (nick is starting to cool already). Throw Fulmer in that mix as well.

Other than continuing to root for them to win, Im just rooting for JD Martinez, because his value as a trade chip could be astronomical- RHH OF with true power, signed to an affordable deal the next two years, in his prime? Not a great defender, but not a liability either. He could bring a huge haul.

@SkitchP wrote:And its basically what large market teams do. Sabathia, Price, Grienke, etc. Its just the nature of the beast for a team trying to show it's contending. You overpay for starting pitching then cross your fingers.

Yeah, Price is a great example. I know that is going to be a brutal contract 3 years from now, but that's what was needed to get a #1 and I'm ok with it.

@SkitchP wrote:And its basically what large market teams do. Sabathia, Price, Grienke, etc. Its just the nature of the beast for a team trying to show it's contending. You overpay for starting pitching then cross your fingers.

Again, my point isn't necessarily the contract. It's the timing.