Red Mosquito

Has CNN called this thing yet?

E.H. Ruddock wrote:Has CNN called this thing yet?

libtards

I'm actually surprised at how many people are still playing the "how Trump could win" game.

he really could, though. Be afraid

The Argonaut wrote:he really could, though. Be afraid

McP is smarter and wittier than all of us. i trust him.

I think I might head for the mountains tommorow

BurtReynolds wrote:I think I might head for the mountains tommorow

How do you get anywhere with those tiny feet?

I think there are a lot of aspects that aren't being discussed yet, because no journalist wants to look like a dumbass in retrospect. But as an example:

Projections from Florida right now are primarily based on party affiliation among early voters. So when they say Democrats are ahead by, say, 40,000 votes...they're only counting the number of people of each affiliation that showed up to vote. 40,000 more democrats voted early than republicans.

But the number of unaffiliated voters voting early this year ballooned heavily, as well...they represented approximately one fifth of the total vote there as of last night. Which may initially seem odd, in an election cycle where most of the pandering has been to the bases. Why would people who are generally ideologically neutral be coming out and standing in huge lines for hours, this of all years?

The answer has been popping up all this year...



Lost in all the talk of A-or-B "which party will get this demographic in the long run" has been the fact that they are talking about a group that often leans unaffiliated.

So when a news article says hundreds of thousands of people from that group came out to vote this year, having never voted before, they are talking not just about people who have not been included in any of the previous polls, but also about people who include vast scores of unaffiliated.

So when you tell me that Democrats have a slight edge in Florida based solely on the number of affiliated voters who turned out, and also tell me that unaffiliated early voter numbers swelled AND that many thousands of first timers showed up belonging to a demographic that often trends unaffiliated but are intensely anti-Trump...then I find it highly unlikely that the Democrat advantage is going to do anything but balloon significantly as those votes are actually tallied.

There are a few other states that are still being presented as available to Trump that I think are not, for various reasons, but Florida and probably Nevada seem to me to require literal miracles for him to even have a chance.

who the fuck registers as a democrat or republican? If you're not independent, you're a goon.

BurtReynolds wrote:who the fuck registers as a democrat or republican? If you're not independent, you're a goon.

I was actually surprised to see that i was unaffiliated. I think that surprises me every time i need to check. I couldnt vote in the primaries ( i was a bern bro) and i was surprised i wasn't registered democrat.

Theres hope for me yet, burt.

Though i see me voting republican never in the near future. So whatever.

I also wonder if the percentage of republican voters who will not vote for Trump will match the percentage of republican politicians that haven't endorsed him.

No democrat will vote for Trump, but I'm sure a small percentage of Republicans will vote Hillary.

Strat wrote:

BurtReynolds wrote:I think I might head for the mountains tommorow

How do you get anywhere with those tiny feet?

I'm like a mountain goat. Tiny feet, but I can cling to anything.

BurtReynolds wrote:I also wonder if the percentage of republican voters who will not vote for Trump will match the percentage of republican politicians that haven't endorsed him.

No democrat will vote for Trump, but I'm sure a small percentage of Republicans will vote Hillary.

Seems that everyone is leaning a little left. Republicans wont vote for trump because he's too nuts, so they might vote for hillary, democrats who dont trust hillary wont vote for trump but they might go third party or not vote at all...

BurtReynolds wrote:who the fuck registers as a democrat or republican? If you're not independent, you're a goon.

Depending on your state you might have to in order to vote in a primary.

cutuphalfdead wrote:

BurtReynolds wrote:who the fuck registers as a democrat or republican? If you're not independent, you're a goon.

Depending on your state you might have to in order to vote in a primary.

#feelthebern

FWIW, Clinton won Dixville Notch, and some assclown up there wrote in Romney, too.

BurtReynolds wrote: No democrat will vote for Trump, but I'm sure a small percentage of Republicans will vote Hillary.

I think there will be quite a bit of switch hitting today, but I am slightly confident more Red people will go with Hillary than Blues will go with Trump. My understanding is that thebig challenge for our girl here is that Reds skew older and are more likely to be able to vote on work day. Hardcore Blue areas like mine cancelled school to get more working parents into a position to vote.

chud, you're missing some thrilling commentary and analysis from Curt Schilling on Twitter:

I believe the polls have been lying, a lot. I think it's at least 5% or more in favor of Clinton. So I took the Electoral map and did the math. Any state he's <= 4.9% or leading, I think he wins. Here's my electoral map. PA??? 53% premium increase AND she's ending Coal?

Wow. Polls aren't open and it's 40 deep already.

BurtReynolds wrote:who the fuck registers as a democrat or republican? If you're not independent, you're a goon.

Depends upon your state. As unaffiliated, I get to vote in the primaries (actually, I get to pick my ballot at the primaries), but in some states, unaffiliated get locked out of primaries.