Red Mosquito

Are they exaggerating here or what? I don't get this.

BurtReynolds wrote:

washing machine wrote:The poll debate between Mickey and Burt a few pages ago was interesting. I liked Mickey's take better overall, but Mickey continues to misunderstand/project onto/misrepresent the Burt school. In this case, it made for a good discussion where everybody learned from both sides.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE RM POLL

Some claims of monkey business have come through my PM inbox over the last 24 hours. Mostly from the orpheus fringe of N&D. I've looked into it, but honestly, I can only conclude that this is simply what democracy in action looks like. By 2020 we should all recognize that RM polls are bond.

uh oh, arizona . . .

tragabigzanda wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:uh oh, arizona . . .

??

i'm sure it's still fine, but . . .

washing machine wrote:

BurtReynolds wrote:

washing machine wrote:The poll debate between Mickey and Burt a few pages ago was interesting. I liked Mickey's take better overall, but Mickey continues to misunderstand/project onto/misrepresent the Burt school. In this case, it made for a good discussion where everybody learned from both sides.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE RM POLL

Some claims of monkey business have come through my PM inbox over the last 24 hours. Mostly from the orpheus fringe of N&D. I've looked into it, but honestly, I can only conclude that this is simply what democracy in action looks like. By 2020 we should all recognize that RM polls are bond.

sounds sensible. No recounts necessary.

tragabigzanda wrote:Yeah I'm seeing he's still up by 80K with 99% reporting.

Can someone tell me why AP (whom I believe to be the most reliable election certifier) hasn't budged from calling AZ while all the networks are keeping it in play? For the networks, is it a fear of looking like Fox did last night? Need for media to keep viewers engaged on a Wednesday night?

I mean, when everyone else called Michigan earlier today, AP held out until it was certain. Yet they are doing the opposite in AZ. They even use the McSally returns in 2018 as an example of their caution in the explainer section of the AP website.

So why is AP seemingly the only outlet that includes AZ to give Biden 264 currently?

washing machine wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:Yeah I'm seeing he's still up by 80K with 99% reporting.

Can someone tell me why AP (whom I believe to be the most reliable election certifier) hasn't budged from calling AZ while all the networks are keeping it in play? For the networks, is it a fear of looking like Fox did last night? Need for media to keep viewers engaged on a Wednesday night?

I mean, when everyone else called Michigan earlier today, AP held out until it was certain. Yet they are doing the opposite in AZ. They even use the McSally returns in 2018 as an example of their caution in the explainer section of the AP website.

So why is AP seemingly the only outlet that includes AZ to give Biden 264 currently?

Because the AP is correct. They know Biden has it somehow

Little DC area prank:

knee tunes wrote:

washing machine wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:Yeah I'm seeing he's still up by 80K with 99% reporting.

Can someone tell me why AP (whom I believe to be the most reliable election certifier) hasn't budged from calling AZ while all the networks are keeping it in play? For the networks, is it a fear of looking like Fox did last night? Need for media to keep viewers engaged on a Wednesday night?

I mean, when everyone else called Michigan earlier today, AP held out until it was certain. Yet they are doing the opposite in AZ. They even use the McSally returns in 2018 as an example of their caution in the explainer section of the AP website.

So why is AP seemingly the only outlet that includes AZ to give Biden 264 currently?

Because the AP is correct. They know Biden has it somehow

While I agree here, I still can't understand why all of the networks and 538/RM etc are using mental energy and bandwidth to try and convince us AZ is in play.

washing machine wrote:

knee tunes wrote:

washing machine wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:Yeah I'm seeing he's still up by 80K with 99% reporting.

Can someone tell me why AP (whom I believe to be the most reliable election certifier) hasn't budged from calling AZ while all the networks are keeping it in play? For the networks, is it a fear of looking like Fox did last night? Need for media to keep viewers engaged on a Wednesday night?

I mean, when everyone else called Michigan earlier today, AP held out until it was certain. Yet they are doing the opposite in AZ. They even use the McSally returns in 2018 as an example of their caution in the explainer section of the AP website.

So why is AP seemingly the only outlet that includes AZ to give Biden 264 currently?

Because the AP is correct. They know Biden has it somehow

While I agree here, I still can't understand why all of the networks and 538/RM etc are using mental energy and bandwidth to try and convince us AZ is in play.

yeah, just turn it off

Looks like 80k with 86% most places I look. Unlikely 99% is correct unless it’s an update from tonight

Higgs wrote:

Higgs wrote:

Higgs wrote:

Higgs wrote:What concerns me most is that our local Sportsbet has Biden at $3.40 and Trump at $1.40. I put $50 on Biden.

This has gotten tighter. Trump now at $1.70 and Biden at $2.20. Let's see...

Looking much better for me this morning. Biden at $1.28, Trump at $3.75.

If Biden wins I'll need suggestions on how to spend my $175.

I think I might buy an original MAGA hat. With 45 on the side, 'natch.

Sportsbet paid us out this morning! $350 in total split 50/50 between me and my son.

AZ is issuing another update at 11:30 tonight. Could technically still swing for Trump but he'd need to take the remaining votes at 60-40 which is unlikely given where they are. It will be closer than it is now though.

I'm pleasantly surprised that in the last four years, the old Houston Colt .45 logo caps haven't been appropriated by local MAGA around here.

Get a grip trag even AP has 86% gah