Red Mosquito

run2death wrote:Also like to point out that I was right about 538 leaving ESPN.

But still with Disney, and not really changing their operations at all. You'll have to fill us in later if you can on how happy the ABC News branch is with them.

tragabigzanda wrote:

Green Habit wrote:

run2death wrote:Also like to point out that I was right about 538 leaving ESPN.

But still with Disney, and not really changing their operations at all. You'll have to fill us in later if you can on how happy the ABC News branch is with them.

wait, 538 is owned by Disney???

ABC, same thing.

tragabigzanda wrote:

Green Habit wrote:

run2death wrote:Also like to point out that I was right about 538 leaving ESPN.

But still with Disney, and not really changing their operations at all. You'll have to fill us in later if you can on how happy the ABC News branch is with them.

wait, 538 is owned by Disney???

I don't think they outright own it, but they first partnered with ESPN, and now ABC News, who of course are both Disney subsidiaries.

tragabigzanda wrote:

Green Habit wrote:Here's the deal with election models.

Gonna have to reply with some GIF from the other great 90s sitcom. Here's one at random:

"All models are wrong, but some are useful."

I'm all for "the math" and election models, I just don't think they are very useful anymore.

To me, 538 isn't any more valuable or useful than something like Real Clear Politics.

As someone who builds these kinds of models/algorithms for a living, I could watch the underinformed tilt against the Nate Silver windmill all day.

Yes thodoks, you're smarter than everyone else.

Thanks for the insight.

Tester looks likely. Cool.

run2death wrote:Yes thodoks, you're smarter than everyone else.

Thanks for the insight.

I've read a few of your criticisms, but what are your objections to Silver? Or perhaps more precisely, what are your objections to what he's doing in practice?

--- wrote:

run2death wrote:Yes thodoks, you're smarter than everyone else.

Thanks for the insight.

I've read a few of your criticisms, but what are your objections to Silver? Or perhaps more precisely, what are your objections to what he's doing in practice?

read the 2016 election thread... go ahead... I'll wait

run2death wrote:

--- wrote:

run2death wrote:Yes thodoks, you're smarter than everyone else.

Thanks for the insight.

I've read a few of your criticisms, but what are your objections to Silver? Or perhaps more precisely, what are your objections to what he's doing in practice?

read the 2016 election thread... go ahead... I'll wait

That's a big thread. Can you maybe link me to your first post?

I'll read your criticisms in good faith and be less of a jerk about the issue, if you're game.

McParadigm wrote:Tester looks likely. Cool.

Looks like all of the red counties are at 100% reported and they're still waiting for 25% of the vote in Missoula. Looks promising.

Not sure about promising, he's currently down, right?

tragabigzanda wrote:

run2death wrote:Yes thodoks, you're smarter than everyone else.

Thanks for the insight.

Seriously. Where does Silver's modeling account for the 3 vote lead that a State Senate candidate currently holds here in MT? Or for the multitude of GOP-lead voting restrictions? Math is great and all, but does nothing to communicate the stories of what is happening on the ground in real time.

That's not the ambition of a model, and to the extent that Silver (or any practitioner) leads others to believe otherwise, he is failing to do his job to properly communicate the value any model can be expected to add to a particular process.

Regard Nate Silver specifically, I couldn't care less about him personally. He's not my guy or anything like that. But I think he still does really good work and I think the polls for this election season did a good job. I'm honestly a bit confused why some people are trumpeting the irrelevance of polling today.

If a person only read 538 stuff about the election for the last year and saw the results today I think she would be like "yeah, that's about right."