This seems like as a good a time as any. We're essentially equidistant from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
This is the thread where you can boldly go on record to make predictions. You're more than welcome to include a confidence indicator of your choice if you'd like, but certainly don't have to. You can also feel free to make tempered predictions of unlikely events, but to spell out the means by which they might be more probable than people would currently expect.
It should probably be things that are quantifiable. I'm thinking things like elections, policies, and the economy, but by no means limited to those things. The more creative the better.
If you're predicting something that could potentially be open ended, then include a time frame. For example, "Unemployment will be over 5% by the end of 2019" is good, "there will be another recession" not so much. "Trump will divide the country further" isn't great but "Trump will win over 80% of rural voters in 2020" is much better.
I'll update the header post with your predictions, so over time if this catches on you'll be able to come back to this post and it'll be organized by each participant with their prediction and the date of that prediction. This will allow you to change your prediction over time. I'll keep a record of your original, but as we get new information it'd be perfectly reasonable to update/change what you think.
Red = Missed predictions
Green = Successful predictions
Predictions
Simple Torture
- Spoiler: show
- (11/7/18) Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020.
(1/16/19) No woman will be elected to the U.S. presidency until both of the major parties nominate women as their candidates in the same year...and that first female president will be a Republican.
(11/24/19)RBG will die on 2/13/20, exactly four years after Scalia. A replacement will be confirmed by the Senate before the Ides of March.
(2/11/19) There will be no general election debates between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger.
tragabigzanda
- Spoiler: show
- (11/7/18) a 10% jump in mass shootings before 2020
(11/7/18) one massive environmental catastrophe (100K+ dead or displaced) before 2020
(11/7/18) one historic cyber attack on a US utility or other core system (banking, etc) before 2020
(11/8/18) there will be a political assassination of some sort, of a US political/judicial figure
(10/2/19) Trump survives impeachment in the Senate and ekes out a narrow victory in 2020, despite TX flipping blue. Just after he renews his oath of office, and as civil war in China takes hold, a new bombshell scandal involving Kushner and the Saudis comes to light, as the market simultaneously crashes into full-on recession.
Trump dies of stress-related causes; the Newsweek photo shows Melania and Pence standing over the flag-draped casket with the headline “Now What?”.
Also we find out Baron is a robot sent back from the future to kill Adam Schiff.
(5/5/19) Trump will win reelection, but he'll lose the senate as economic anxiety gets shifted to down-ballot races. He'll be impeached, and we'll welcome our new President Nikki Haley
(5/5/19) Once Biden announces Warren, Pence’s days are numbered
(5/12/19) States will reopen out of economic necessity/lack of Federal support. Distancing and the ability to work from home will become a pleasure of the haves, while illness and death will become the reality for have-nots (and the ignorant and stupid).
(8/23/19) Haley/Scott 2024
The Argonaut
- Spoiler: show
- (11/7/18) Harris-Klobuchar defeats Trump-Pence in 2020. It's a long, ugly, embarrassing campaign season, and the final result is way too close.
(11/7/18) Florida, Georgia, Texas, NC, and Arizona stay red, but the formerly blue Midwest states and PA return to blue
(11/7/18) Whichever Democrat wins the SC primary will eventually win the nomination
4/5
- Spoiler: show
- (11/7/18) The House will not open articles on impeachment against Trump in the 2019-20 session of Congress.
(11/7/18) There will be a 14+ day government shutdown during the 2019-20 session of Congress.
(11/8/18) Clarence Thomas will shuffle off this mortal coil before Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
(6/25/19) No candidate will win the nomination on the first ballot at the DNC.
(11/6/19) If Trump is on the ballot in 2020, he will lose the popular vote by more than 8 million votes.
run2death
- Spoiler: show
- (11/7/18) Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.
GOP sues.
Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court.
Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump.
(11/8/18) Hillary will die 10-plus years before Bill.
Green Habit
- Spoiler: show
- (11/7/18) The Supreme Court declares partisan gerrymandering to be a nonjusticiable political question, with no exceptions.
cutuphalfdead
- Spoiler: show
- (11/7/18) Mueller will be fired by Thanksgiving.
bart
- Spoiler: show
- (11/7/18) The wall will be funded by 2020.
96583UP
- Spoiler: show
- (11/7/18) By November 2019, NY AG charges Trump Organization with Money Laundering and Tax Fraud
(12/19/19) By November 2023, NY AG charges Trump Organization with Money Laundering and Tax Fraud
(5/5/19) Biden will wait a while to announce his VP because he has little to gain by identifying them early
(6/30/19) A mass exodus of americans from northern states to southern states will occur after winter arrives and covid spreads and people can’t dine or do things outside in the north anymore
Bammer
- Spoiler: show
- (11/8/18) Trump dies of heart attack prior to 2020 election night.
simple schoolboy
- Spoiler: show
- (11/8/18) Kevin DeLeon continues to sponsor ineffectual gun control measures in the California Senate.
McParadigm
- Spoiler: show
- (11/8/18) Any possible future that does not involve a completed and thorough investigation made public is likely also one in which we see coalitions of major cities and/or states withholding funding from the federal government. Places like California, where more money is sent out than is returned via federal aid.
(12/19/19) Someday we will learn what was behind this cluster of resignations, and be amazed at the scope of impeachable behavior he was engaging in even while he was being impeached.
(5/6/19) Donald Trump will definitely not win re-election without some extreme and unexpected circumstantial change.
Mickey
- Spoiler: show
- (3/8/19)It's definitely Bernie.
(11/24/19)Bloomberg won't drop out for a long time--maybe not until the convention itself--but he also won't win a single primary state.
(4/8/20) Biden is going to lose by more than 77 electoral college votes.
(some time after 4/8/20) I'm definitely going to eat shit on this one.
dscans
- Spoiler: show
- (3/11/19)The child of Jon and Daenerys will sit on the Iron Throne.
(3/31/19) Trump will give pete buttigieg a stupid nickname, like "buttman." He won't apologize for it, but will later tweet "Gay people love me!"
(8/21/19)Within the next two presidential elections Texas will flip blue.
dimejinky99
- Spoiler: show
- (3/12/19)Trump is gonna get caught cheating cheating with Melania’s stand in.
superbloodwolfmoon
- Spoiler: show
- (10/2/19) I'd be really surprised if Trump serves out the remainder of 2019.I believe Trump is finished at this point.
doug rr
- Spoiler: show
- (5/6/19)civil war after the election...doug and the mrs move to vancouver sooner than planned
(5/12/19)Fauci will be fired no later than tomorrow night.
verb_to_trust
- Spoiler: show
- (5/15/19) WFH as a broad based way forward for the American workforce is a myth. It'll be like 10 people, tops with the rest of the jobs put in the wood chipper.
E.H. Ruddock
- Spoiler: show
- (5/18/19) If Trump wins the election this year, he will absolutely try to get rid of term limits in four years
