Democracy Deferred: End of 2020 Election Prediction Thread
Posted: Tue August 04, 2020 5:49 am
There's been lots of talk lately that the upcoming U.S. presidential election could be a rehash of the 2000 election, when a winner is not known on election night and the country has to wait a bit longer for results. There seems to be a perfect storm brewing with the pandemic, the increase in calls for mail-in voting, the seemingly intentional dismantling of the USPS, the President's love of conspiracy theories, and the litigious nature of, well, everybody--there certainly is a non-zero chance that we will not know who the next President will be as soon as we usually do. In this thread, we'll all guess when this fucking waking nightmare will actually end.
Rules:
1. Your goal is to guess which day the election will be decided. We will count forward and backward; no screwy "going over" rules here. You have to select a month and a date, but you do not have to select the actual winner of the election. You don't have to guess exactly how it'll end, but feel free to speculate. Everyone is allowed only one guess.
2. We'll be going by the time in the U.S. on the East coast; use Washington, DC as your point of reference.
3. In the simplest scenario, we'll count the loser's concession speech as the end of the election, as that definitively marks the time when the campaign for the presidency is over (see below for a list of recent concession speeches and when they've come in relation to the election). We're working with the major two party candidates here, so it's either Trump or Biden. I don't care if Vermin Supreme continues to contest the results.
4. If there's no concession speech from the eventual loser, things get dicier (and more interesting), but we can let history be our guide. A contingent election in the House of Representatives (as in 1801 and 1825; see below) would mark the deciding date of an election if it came to that. If things get wrapped up in the courts, a final decision by the Supreme Court would decide the election in the case of no concession speech (so if Gore hadn't conceded in 2000, the election would've "ended" a day earlier). If Congress got involved, such as in 1876, we'd have to wait for the outcome of that to figure out what counts as the election's "last day." The absolute farthest we will go would be inauguration day; no matter what happens before it, it'll be called once a new President is sworn in (currently scheduled for 1/20/21). If the end date is unclear, I will convene a conference of RMers who will help decide; however, just like on RuPaul's Drag Race, my decision will be final.
5. You can guess between now and October 15, 2020 (recently extended!). Once someone chooses a date, it's taken, and you'll have to choose something else. Now get to guessing!
Important Upcoming Days:
November 3, 2020 - Election Day
December 14, 2020 - Electoral College Votes
January 3, 2021 - 117th Congress Sworn In
January 6, 2021 - Electoral College Votes Counted
January 20, 2021 - Inauguration Day
Recent Elections Ending With Concessions:
2016: Election Day November 8; Hillary Clinton conceded November 9 (1 day later)
2012: Election Day November 6; Mitt Romney conceded on November 7 (1 day later)
2008: Election Day November 4; John McCain conceded on November 4 (same day)
2004: Election Day November 2; John Kerry conceded on November 3 (1 day later)
2000: Election Day November 7; Al Gore conceded December 13 (36 days; this was the day after Bush v. Gore was decided at the Supreme Court)
1996: Election Day November 5; Bob Dole conceded November 5 (same day)
1992: Election Day November 3; George H.W. Bush conceded November 3 (same day)
Historical Elections Ended In Some Other Manner:
1800: Election Day ~mid-November; Thomas Jefferson defeated Aaron Burr in a contingent election in the House of Representatives on February 17, 1801 (approximately 3 months later). If you've seen Hamilton, this was in Act II. There was no set election date in 1800, but Wikipedia reckons it between the end of October and early December. Jefferson and Burr tied in the Electoral College on the same ticket, and TJ won on the 36th ballot in the House after 6 days of voting and jockeying for position.
1824: Election Day ~mid-November; John Quincy Adams defeated Andrew Jackson in a contingent election on February 9, 1825 (approximately 3 months later). America, what are you doing? Again, there was no set election day. Neither Adams or Jackson received enough electoral votes to win outright in the Electoral College. Adams won on the first ballot in the House.
1876: Election Day November 7; Rutherford B. Hayes was sworn into office on March 2, 1877 (115 days later) as a result of the Compromise of 1877. His opponent, Samuel J. Tilden, apparently never conceded. This has not been made into a broadway musical yet, probably because it was too depressing: Southern Democrats basically let Hayes have a highly contested election in exchange for federal troops being withdrawn from the South, effectively ending Reconstruction and ushering in the Jim Crow era.
Rules:
1. Your goal is to guess which day the election will be decided. We will count forward and backward; no screwy "going over" rules here. You have to select a month and a date, but you do not have to select the actual winner of the election. You don't have to guess exactly how it'll end, but feel free to speculate. Everyone is allowed only one guess.
2. We'll be going by the time in the U.S. on the East coast; use Washington, DC as your point of reference.
3. In the simplest scenario, we'll count the loser's concession speech as the end of the election, as that definitively marks the time when the campaign for the presidency is over (see below for a list of recent concession speeches and when they've come in relation to the election). We're working with the major two party candidates here, so it's either Trump or Biden. I don't care if Vermin Supreme continues to contest the results.
4. If there's no concession speech from the eventual loser, things get dicier (and more interesting), but we can let history be our guide. A contingent election in the House of Representatives (as in 1801 and 1825; see below) would mark the deciding date of an election if it came to that. If things get wrapped up in the courts, a final decision by the Supreme Court would decide the election in the case of no concession speech (so if Gore hadn't conceded in 2000, the election would've "ended" a day earlier). If Congress got involved, such as in 1876, we'd have to wait for the outcome of that to figure out what counts as the election's "last day." The absolute farthest we will go would be inauguration day; no matter what happens before it, it'll be called once a new President is sworn in (currently scheduled for 1/20/21). If the end date is unclear, I will convene a conference of RMers who will help decide; however, just like on RuPaul's Drag Race, my decision will be final.
5. You can guess between now and October 15, 2020 (recently extended!). Once someone chooses a date, it's taken, and you'll have to choose something else. Now get to guessing!
Important Upcoming Days:
November 3, 2020 - Election Day
December 14, 2020 - Electoral College Votes
January 3, 2021 - 117th Congress Sworn In
January 6, 2021 - Electoral College Votes Counted
January 20, 2021 - Inauguration Day
Recent Elections Ending With Concessions:
2016: Election Day November 8; Hillary Clinton conceded November 9 (1 day later)
2012: Election Day November 6; Mitt Romney conceded on November 7 (1 day later)
2008: Election Day November 4; John McCain conceded on November 4 (same day)
2004: Election Day November 2; John Kerry conceded on November 3 (1 day later)
2000: Election Day November 7; Al Gore conceded December 13 (36 days; this was the day after Bush v. Gore was decided at the Supreme Court)
1996: Election Day November 5; Bob Dole conceded November 5 (same day)
1992: Election Day November 3; George H.W. Bush conceded November 3 (same day)
Historical Elections Ended In Some Other Manner:
1800: Election Day ~mid-November; Thomas Jefferson defeated Aaron Burr in a contingent election in the House of Representatives on February 17, 1801 (approximately 3 months later). If you've seen Hamilton, this was in Act II. There was no set election date in 1800, but Wikipedia reckons it between the end of October and early December. Jefferson and Burr tied in the Electoral College on the same ticket, and TJ won on the 36th ballot in the House after 6 days of voting and jockeying for position.
1824: Election Day ~mid-November; John Quincy Adams defeated Andrew Jackson in a contingent election on February 9, 1825 (approximately 3 months later). America, what are you doing? Again, there was no set election day. Neither Adams or Jackson received enough electoral votes to win outright in the Electoral College. Adams won on the first ballot in the House.
1876: Election Day November 7; Rutherford B. Hayes was sworn into office on March 2, 1877 (115 days later) as a result of the Compromise of 1877. His opponent, Samuel J. Tilden, apparently never conceded. This has not been made into a broadway musical yet, probably because it was too depressing: Southern Democrats basically let Hayes have a highly contested election in exchange for federal troops being withdrawn from the South, effectively ending Reconstruction and ushering in the Jim Crow era.
