Red Mosquito

After Labour got in bed with the Tories during the Scottish referendum, some Labour voters are now considering switching to Green. This includes English voters in Labour/Tory marginal. In such a seat, voting Green could let the Tories in by the back door by splitting the vote. But what could that seat going to the Tories mean?


In a situation where the 2 main parties got all the seats between them, it could mean the difference between Labour or the Tories getting an overall majority. This clearly won't be the case.


Up until, and including 2010, there's a sliding scale of election outcomes, and 1 seat going to Labour or the Tories could decide between any 2 bordering scenarios. The main scenarios are: a Tory overall majority, the Tories having the most seats in a hung parliament, Labour having the most seats in a hung parliament, and a Labour overall majority. Within these outcomes is, for example, Labour/Tory (delete as appropriate) sharing an overall majority with party X (eg Lib Dems) or not.


The above paragraph is still the case today, but let's compare other factors between 2010 and 2015.


In 2010, the Lib Dems held the balance of power and if the arithmetic was right, the Lib Dems and Labour were apparently willing to work with each other. What happened subsequently has led to 2 things: the 2 parties are probably unwilling to work with each other, and the Lib Dems are facing melt down, as are Labour in Scotland. Apart from anything else, if you're thinking of voting Green because you think Labour aren't left wing enough, chances are you'd rather vote Green than vote for a coalition in which the Lib Dems would pull Labour to the relevant right anyway.


In 2010, it was highly possible that 1 seat in a Labour/Tory marginal could make the difference between a Tory overall majority and a Labour government, or all the difference between a Labour/Tory government within a hung parliament.


So in 2015 things are still the same, with the Lib Dems replaced by the SNP, right? Well, wrong. Despite the SNP being willing to work with Labour, all the signs point towards Labour being unwilling to work with the SNP. The referendum, the Labour/Tory coalitions in local councils in Scotland, amongst other things all point towards Labour preferring to step aside and hand David Cameron the keys to number 10 via the back door than work with the SNP. In fact, it is almost as if Labour are doing all they can to make the SNP unwilling to work with Labour so that Labour can stand aside and blame it on the SNP. Labour's appalling attack on Scottish Democracy by promising to block a further Independence Referendum is a classic example.


Assuming that a hung parliament=a Tory government, then 1 seat between Labour and the Tories will make the following difference (if any difference at all): a Tory overall majority or a Tory government after a hung parliament, a Tory government after a hung parliament or a Tory government after a hung parliament, or a Tory government after a hung parliament and a Labour overall majority.


If the above paragraph is correct, the only way a single seat between Labour and the Tories going to the Tories can result in a Tory government, is if there is a hung parliament with Labour being just 1 seat short of an overall majority, but still stepping aside. In the long term, this might not be such a bad thing.


Within a hung parliament, the only thing that can stop the Tories is if the parties who are willing to work together, such as Plaid, the SNP and the Greens, get enough seats between them.


One thing for sure, is that a Labour government will not be pulled to the left in a coalition.

Cool story.

So I take it that the rise of the SNP is from backlash from the referendum, and they're trying to hold at least one of the parties (presumably Labour) accountable to Scottish concerns? How big are the differences between Labour and SNP that they wouldn't be willing keep the Tories out of Downing Street if the math was favorable?

And how are you going to vote? Apologies as I'm not quite understanding what you're pushing for.

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BurtReynolds wrote:which one is red team and which one is blue? My tiny American brain can't handle this.

Labour is red and the Tories are blue. Those are the traditional left/right colors, but the major US networks screwed this up at a critical time and as such it's backwards here.

It's complicated. Scotland is more left wing than England, but ironically this means that Labour voters in Scotland tend to be more right wing than Labour voters in England. The reason for this is that there are right wing Unionists in Scotland who vote Labour for pragmatist reasons, because the Tories don't stand a chance up there while right wing Unionists in England tend to vote Tory. As for Labour voters in England? We just want the Tories out, and we will never forgive Labour if they stand back and let Cameron in by refusing to work with the SNP.

Let's all laugh at Rangers wrote:As for Labour voters in England? We just want the Tories out, and we will never forgive Labour if they stand back and let Cameron in by refusing to work with the SNP.

If that happens, what's the next move? Seems like you're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Are there enough safely left-wing constituencies that a small party left of Labour could form, or does that just risk giving more seats to the Tories?

dude spelled immigants wrong

Let's all laugh at Rangers wrote:Labour's appalling attack on Scottish Democracy by promising to block a further Independence Referendum is a classic example.

This seems pretty sensible to me - Scottish independence was already put to a vote, it lost.

It seems galling to suggest the Scots are going to have to keep exercising their democratic rights repeatedly until they arrive at the "right" result.

(I don't have a particularly strong opinion on the matter either way, mind you.)

Green Habit wrote:

Let's all laugh at Rangers wrote:As for Labour voters in England? We just want the Tories out, and we will never forgive Labour if they stand back and let Cameron in by refusing to work with the SNP.

If that happens, what's the next move? Seems like you're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Are there enough safely left-wing constituencies that a small party left of Labour could form, or does that just risk giving more seats to the Tories?

It's an interesting question because they won't have the Lib Dems to prop them up, and UKIP are suffering from a squeeze. Northern Ireland has hardly any constituencies so there won't be that many seats the DUP etc will get. There's an idea in this country that it would suit the Tories to keep having elections on the basis that they would eventually outspend the rest and win, but I don't think people are that stupid anymore.

As for another referendum, Yes was ahead in the polls when Labour signed up to The Vow - "as near to federalism as you can get" as Brown put it. Now they are saying the implementation of The Vow would be a disaster for Scotland...

How 'bout that UK election, then?

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I just had grumpy Australian expats.

I really can't get enthused about British politics one way or the other. Everybody involved is such an ineffectual wet.

Though the first past the post system is stupid. UKIP are a bunch of arseholes, but 4 million people voted for them, and they get 1 seat? 1 million people vote for SNP, and they get 56 seats? Something's wrong there.

Boy, the polls really screwed up for this election, huh? I had some fun reading up on the Shy Tory phenomenon as a result.

Well, a lot has happened since I started this thread (stating the obvious with a huge understatement, I know). The more Labour standing aside was brought up (by myself and others) the more it became apparent that most people thought Labour were bluffing, and would end up working with the SNP. With the Tories ahead in the polls, I decided that the best thing was for the question to be asked of Labour (as it was the Lib Dems in 2010). If Labour really were planning on letting Cameron in, I didn't want them to get away with it - I wanted the entire country to see it so in 2020 we could start again with a new party stepping in. With that in mind I voted Labour, and Green, Labour, Labour in the borough election (only 1 Green was standing). I thought a strong Green presence in local elections might send a message to Labour in the hung parliament phase, so much for that.

Some are saying the election was rigged, but in my opinion Labour's failure to defend a Labour-SNP alliance has won the Tories the election.

The EU now stands between the only rights we have left and the Tories. This is going to be the vote of our lives.

Let's all laugh at Rangers wrote:Some are saying the election was rigged, but in my opinion Labour's failure to defend a Labour-SNP alliance has won the Tories the election.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that Labour now has no choice but to ally with SNP if they have any hope in the immediate future of prying Number 10 away from the Tories. How else would they be able to do it?

Well the English public fucked that one up.